Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will clash against each other in the final of the Olympics for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.43
Novak Djokovic -> 2.91
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This will be the 7th time that Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz fight against each other. The head to head is 3-3 for Djokovic and Alcaraz (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Alcaraz won 6-2 6-2 7-6(4) in the final in at the Wimbledon back in July 2024.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic – Wimbledon 14-July-2024
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Serbian reached the final after defeating Matthew Ebden 6-0 6-1, Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-4, Dominik Koepfer 7-5 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 7-6(3) and Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, Djokovic had a good straight sets win against Musetti (6-4 6-2). During the match, Djokovic scored 68 points vs Musetti’s 52. Novak was exceptionally aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Regarding the service games, Djokovic managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Novak Djokovic lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Djokovic put 65% of his first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the 2nd serve. The Serbian broke Musetti 5 times after converting 38% of his break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Djokovic hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points he played.
Djokovic has a superlative win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 86% of his matches (511-80). 15-3 on clay in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Djokovic has a compiled 140-29 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Djokovic’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Wimbledon .
Novak has a composed 28-7 win-loss record in 2024, 15-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Olympics
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-2 | 7-2 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-15 | 22-7 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the final after defeating Hady Habib 6-3 6-1, Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 7-6(3), Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-2, Tommy Paul 6-3 7-6(7) and Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1 6-1.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Auger-Aliassime (6-1 6-1). During the match Alcaraz scored 58 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s 35. Alcaraz was exceptionally aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about serving, Alcaraz bagged 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (17/22) of his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Auger-Aliassime 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Indian Wells where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 and at the Wimbledon where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 6-2 6-2 7-6(4).
Carlos has an overall 38-6 win-loss record in 2024, 17-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 91 | 90 |
| Pts | 331-234 | 334-249 |
| Total Points | 565 | 583 |
| Winners | 129 | 140 |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% |
Both Djokovic and Alcaraz played 5 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Djokovic and Alcaraz have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Djokovic played 1 game more than Alcaraz. The Serbian scored 129 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard made 140 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 23 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| 1st in | 176/268 | 191/280 |
| %1st in | 66% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 129/176 | 140/191 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 56/92 | 57/89 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 64% |
Djokovic blasted 23 aces (4.6 per match). Alcaraz scored 23 aces (4.6 per match). Djokovic won 73% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 22 | 17 |
| Converted | 22/44 | 17/38 |
| % Converted | 50% | 45% |
| Conceded | 15 | 12 |
| Saved | 8 | 10 |
| % Saved | 53% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 2 |
Djokovic broke his opponents 22 times with a 50% conversion rate. Novak surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded. Alcaraz broke his opponents 17 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.
| Djokovic | |||||||
| R1 Ebden |
R2 Nadal |
R3 Koepfer |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
1/2 Musetti |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-1 | 6-1 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-3 7-63 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 91 | |
| pts | 52-21 | 63-43 | 66-49 | 82-69 | 68-52 | 331-234 | |
| Total points | 73 | 106 | 115 | 151 | 120 | 565 | |
| Winners | 15 | 23 | 31 | 37 | 23 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 37% | 47% | 45% | 34% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 18/30 | 29/47 | 36/56 | 57/80 | 36/55 | 176/268 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 62% | 64% | 71% | 65% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 15/18 | 23/29 | 31/36 | 37/57 | 23/36 | 129/176 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 79% | 86% | 65% | 64% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/12 | 10/18 | 11/20 | 13/23 | 12/19 | 56/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 83% | 56% | 55% | 57% | 63% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/12 | 3/4 | 3/6 | 5/13 | 22/44 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 42% | 75% | 50% | 38% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 4/6 | 2/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | – | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Alcaraz | |||||||
| R1 Habib |
R2 Griekspoor |
R3 Safiullin |
1/4 Paul |
1/2 Auger-Aliassime |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 6-1 7-63 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 7-67 | 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 14 | 90 | |
| pts | 68-42 | 71-57 | 61-44 | 76-71 | 58-35 | 334-249 | |
| Total points | 110 | 128 | 105 | 147 | 93 | 583 | |
| Winners | 26 | 31 | 24 | 42 | 17 | 140 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 44% | 39% | 55% | 29% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 33/47 | 47/69 | 30/47 | 59/79 | 22/38 | 191/280 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 64% | 75% | 58% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 26/33 | 31/47 | 24/30 | 42/59 | 17/22 | 140/191 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 66% | 80% | 71% | 77% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/14 | 17/22 | 8/17 | 11/20 | 11/16 | 57/89 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 77% | 47% | 55% | 69% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 2/3 | 4/8 | 2/5 | 5/9 | 17/38 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 67% | 50% | 40% | 56% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 0% | 80% | – | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWWWWWLW
WLWWWWWWWL Tennis Scores in Paris
- Matthew Ebden/John PeersEbden/John Peers – Austin Krajicek/Rajeev RamKrajicek/Rajeev Ram (6-76 7-61 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (3-3) – H2H and prediction
