Alejandro Moro Canas and August Holmgren will fight against each other in the final of the Porto Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on CENTRAL EUPAGO. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alejandro Moro Canas who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alejandro Moro Canas is the pick to win this match.
Alejandro Moro Canas -> 1.73
August Holmgren -> 2.03

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Prediction and head to head Alejandro Moro Canas vs. August Holmgren

This will be the 2^nd time that Alejandro Moro Canas and August Holmgren face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Moro Canas (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Moro Canas won 6-3 7-5 in the 2^nd round in the Oeiras 2 Challenger back in January 2024.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Ranked no. 168, Alejandro got to the final after beating Antoine Escoffier 4-6 7-5 6-1, Alexander Blockx 7-6(0) 6-4, Edas Butvilas 4-6 7-6(8) 6-4 and Jaime Faria 6-3 4-1 ret..

In the semifinal against Faria, the Spaniard had a free pass after Faria retired on a 6-3 4-1 . scoreline.

Moro Canas has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 61% of his matches (167-105). 10-3 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Moro Canas has an aggregate77-30 record in the last 7 years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Rome Challenger where he overcame Vilius Gaubas in the final 7-5 6-3.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 32-20 win-loss record in 2024, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Porto Challenger

Moro Canas has never competed in this tournament before.

August Holmgren

Ranked no. 249, Holmgren reached the final after beating Michael Geerts 6-4 1-6 6-3, Timofey Skatov 7-6(6) 7-6(5), Arthur Reymond 6-2 4-6 6-3 and Mikhail Kukushkin 6-7(6) 7-5 7-6(5).

In the semifinal against Kukushkin, August recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7⁶ 7-5 7-6⁵). During the match Holmgren scored 128 points vs Kukushkin’s 120. August was pretty aggressive to blast 55 winners.

About the serving games, Holmgren made 8 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Overall, August Holmgren was extremely efficient on serve to win 71% (55/78) of his 1st serve and 52% (29/56) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 4 times. August broke Kukushkin 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

August has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Pozoblanco Challenger where he overcame Antoine Escoffier in the final 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Holmgren has a compiled 30-16 win-loss record in 2024, 23-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Moro Canas	Holmgren
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	11	11
Tot Games	99	117
Pts	333-299	385-358
Total Points	632	743
Winners	146	155
%Winners	44%	40%

Both Moro Canas and Holmgren played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alejandro Moro Canas surrendered 2 sets, while August Holmgren surrendered 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Moro Canas and Holmgren have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Moro Canas played 18 games less than Holmgren. Moro Canas scored 146 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Dane blasted 155 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Moro Canas	Holmgren
Aces	8	30
Avg per match	2	7.5
1st in	206/317	216/370
%1st in	65%	58%
1st pts	146/206	155/216
%1st pts	71%	72%
2nd pts	57/111	83/154
%2nd pts	51%	54%

Moro Canas made 8 aces (2 per match). Holmgren struck 30 aces (7.5 per match). Moro Canas won 71% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Holmgren won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Moro Canas	Holmgren
Won	15	16
Converted	15/34	16/41
% Converted	44%	39%
Conceded	25	35
Saved	16	23
% Saved	64%	66%
Times Broken	9	12

Moro Canas broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. The Dane broke his opponents 16 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Dane conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 66% of the break points that he conceded.

Moro Canas
	R1 Escoffier	R2 Blockx	1/4 Butvilas	1/2 Faria	Total
Score	4-6 7-5 6-1	7-60 6-4	4-6 7-68 6-4	6-3 4-1 ret.
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	29	23	33	14	99
pts	98-90	73-65	108-104	54-40	333-299
Total points	188	138	212	94	632
Winners	33	36	49	28	146
%Winners	34%	49%	45%	52%	44%
SERVE
Aces	6	1	1	0	8
Double Faults	4	1	1	2	8
1st in	47/86	55/76	69/103	35/52	206/317
% 1st in	55%	72%	67%	67%	65%
1st pts	33/47	36/55	49/69	28/35	146/206
% 1st pts	70%	65%	71%	80%	71%
2nd pts	23/39	10/21	20/34	4/17	57/111
% 2nd pts	59%	48%	59%	24%	51%
Breaks
Won	5	4	2	4	15
Converted	5/15	4/7	2/7	4/5	15/34
Converted %	33%	57%	29%	80%	44%
Conceded	8	10	4	3	25
Saved	5/8	7/10	2/4	2/3	16
Saved %	63%	70%	50%	67%	63%
Times Broken	3	3	2	1	9

Holmgren
	R1 Geerts	R2 Skatov	1/4 Reymond	1/2 Kukushkin	Total
Score	6-4 1-6 6-3	7-66 7-65	6-2 4-6 6-3	6-76 7-5 7-65
Tot Set	3	2	3	3	11
Tot Games	26	26	27	38	117
pts	79-79	85-84	93-75	128-120	385-358
Total points	158	169	168	248	743
Winners	33	35	32	55	155
%Winners	42%	41%	34%	43%	40%
SERVE
Aces	6	6	10	8	30
Double Faults	5	3	4	10	22
1st in	47/77	53/91	38/68	78/134	216/370
% 1st in	61%	58%	56%	58%	58%
1st pts	33/47	35/53	32/38	55/78	155/216
% 1st pts	70%	66%	84%	71%	72%
2nd pts	17/30	21/38	16/30	29/56	83/154
% 2nd pts	57%	55%	53%	52%	54%
Breaks
Won	3	3	5	5	16
Converted	3/9	3/5	5/16	5/11	16/41
Converted %	33%	60%	31%	45%	39%
Conceded	9	8	4	14	35
Saved	6/9	5/8	2/4	10/14	23
Saved %	67%	63%	50%	71%	63%
Times Broken	3	3	2	4	12

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Alejandro Moro CanasMoro Canas – August HolmgrenHolmgren (1-0) – H2H and prediction