Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the quarter of the Olympics for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 2:00 pm on Court Philippe Chatrier. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.136
Tommy Paul -> 6.15
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 6th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul play each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Alcaraz won 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 in the quarter in at the Wimbledon back in July 2024.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul – Wimbledon 09-July-2024
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard reached the quarter after beating Hady Habib 6-3 6-1, Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 7-6(3) and Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Safiullin (6-4 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 61 points vs Safiullin’s 44. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz scored 5 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 64% of his first serves in, winning 80% (24/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (8/17) on the 2nd serve. Alcaraz broke Safiullin 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 80% of his matches (269-69). 15-3 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an aggregate139-34 match record in the last 7 years on clay.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in Indian Wells where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 6-2 6-2 7-6(4).
Carlos has a compiled 36-6 win-loss record in 2024, 15-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Olympics
Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-5 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Tommy reached the quarter after beating Luciano Darderi 6-3 6-4, Jakub Mensik 6-3 6-1 and Corentin Moutet 7-6(6) 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Tommy had a good straight sets win against Moutet (7-66 6-3). During the match Paul scored 83 points vs Moutet’s 70. Tommy was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about serving, Paul blasted 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Tommy Paul lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 65% of his first serves in, winning 69% (35/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Moutet 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3 and in London where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 6-1 7-6(8).
The American has a compiled 34-11 win-loss record in 2024, 10-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 57 |
| Pts | 200-143 | 214-169 |
| Total Points | 343 | 383 |
| Winners | 81 | 85 |
| %Winners | 41% | 40% |
Both Alcaraz and Paul played 3 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Paul have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Alcaraz played 3 games less than Paul. Alcaraz scored 81 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Tommy scored 85 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 110/163 | 118/183 |
| %1st in | 67% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 81/110 | 85/118 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 35/53 | 42/67 |
| %2nd pts | 66% | 63% |
Alcaraz recorded 15 aces (5 per match). Paul made 12 aces (4 per match). Alcaraz won 74% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 10 |
| Converted | 10/24 | 10/36 |
| % Converted | 42% | 28% |
| Conceded | 7 | 8 |
| Saved | 6 | 5 |
| % Saved | 86% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 10 times with a 28% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R1 Habib |
R2 Griekspoor |
R3 Safiullin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 6-1 7-63 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 20 | 18 | 54 | |
| pts | 68-42 | 71-57 | 61-44 | 200-143 | |
| Total points | 110 | 128 | 105 | 343 | |
| Winners | 26 | 31 | 24 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 44% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 33/47 | 47/69 | 30/47 | 110/163 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 64% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 26/33 | 31/47 | 24/30 | 81/110 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 66% | 80% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/14 | 17/22 | 8/17 | 35/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 77% | 47% | 66% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 2/3 | 4/8 | 10/24 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 67% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 0% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Paul | |||||
| R1 Darderi |
R2 Mensik |
R3 Moutet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | 7-66 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 16 | 22 | 57 | |
| pts | 68-58 | 63-41 | 83-70 | 214-169 | |
| Total points | 126 | 104 | 153 | 383 | |
| Winners | 27 | 23 | 35 | 85 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 37/61 | 30/44 | 51/78 | 118/183 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 68% | 65% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 27/37 | 23/30 | 35/51 | 85/118 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 77% | 69% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/25 | 12/15 | 15/27 | 42/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 80% | 56% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 4/12 | 3/12 | 10/36 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 33% | 25% | 28% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1/1 | 3/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 60% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWLWWW
LWLWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Paris
- Tomas Machac/Adam PavlasekMachac/Adam Pavlasek – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (3-6 6-1 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (11-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (4-3) – H2H and prediction
