Shintaro Mochizuki and Elias Ymer will fight against each other in the qualifications of the Citi Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 10:00 am on COURT 4. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.63
Elias Ymer -> 2.19
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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Elias Ymer
This will be the 2nd time that Shintaro Mochizuki and Elias Ymer clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Mochizuki (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Mochizuki won 1-6 6-4 6-3 in the qualifications in Seoul back in 2022.
Shintaro Mochizuki
15 - 20win/loss
235
129
LWWLWLLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-33 | 19-22 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 14-12 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 160, Mochizuki reached the qualifications after defeating Andrew Fenty 3-6 7-6(4) ret..
In the qualifications against Fenty, the Japanese had a free pass after Fenty retired on a 3-6 7-64 . scoreline.
Mochizuki has a winning win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 54% of his matches (162-139). 6-9 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mochizuki has a compiled83-72 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
The Japanese has a compiled 15-19 win-loss record in 2024, 6-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Elias Ymer
13 - 19win/loss
326
105
LWLWLWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-32 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 8-7 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-41 | 10-13 | 24-17 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-32 | 12-11 | 20-15 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-29 | 9-9 | 20-11 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 10-12 | 1-4 | 8-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 201, Elias got to the qualifications after defeating Benjamin Bonzi 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the qualifications against Bonzi, Elias recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match Ymer scored 89 points vs Bonzi’s 79. Ymer was extremely aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Ymer recorded 9 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Elias Ymer lost the serve once and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Ymer put 58% of his first serves in, winning 79% (45/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (20/41) on the 2nd serve. Elias broke Bonzi 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
The Swede’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Oeiras 4 Challenger.
Ymer has a compiled 12-19 win-loss record in 2024, 2-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mochizuki | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 27 |
| Pts | 74-79 | 89-79 |
| Total Points | 153 | 168 |
| Winners | 26 | 45 |
| %Winners | 35% | 51% |
Both Mochizuki and Ymer played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Shintaro Mochizuki dropped 1 set, while Elias Ymer lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Mochizuki and Ymer have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Mochizuki played 5 games less than Ymer. Mochizuki scored 26 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Ymer made 45 winners (51%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mochizuki | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 9 |
| 1st in | 37/77 | 57/98 |
| %1st in | 48% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 45/57 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 20/40 | 20/41 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 49% |
Mochizuki bagged 4 aces . Ymer fired 9 aces . Mochizuki won 70% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mochizuki | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 3 |
| Converted | 1/6 | 3/7 |
| % Converted | 17% | 43% |
| Conceded | 9 | 10 |
| Saved | 7 | 9 |
| % Saved | 78% | 90% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
Mochizuki broke his opponent once with a 17% conversion rate. Shintaro surrendered his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. Elias broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Ymer conceded his serve once and he saved 90% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mochizuki | |||
| Q1 Fenty |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-64 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 74-79 | 74-79 | |
| Total points | 153 | 153 | |
| Winners | 26 | 26 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 37/77 | 37/77 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 26/37 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/40 | 20/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/6 | 1/6 | |
| Converted % | 17% | 17% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 9 | |
| Saved | 7/9 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 78% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Ymer | |||
| Q1 Bonzi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
| pts | 89-79 | 89-79 | |
| Total points | 168 | 168 | |
| Winners | 45 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 51% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 57/98 | 57/98 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 45/57 | 45/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/41 | 20/41 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 9/10 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 90% | 90% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWLLWWL
LWLWLWWLWL 
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