Nuno Borges and Rafael Nadal will face off in the final of the Nordea Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.39
Nuno Borges -> 3.02

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Prediction and head to head Nuno Borges vs. Rafael Nadal

There is no head to head record between Nuno Borges and Rafael Nadal since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Nuno Borges

Ranked no. 51, Borges got to the final after defeating Andrea Pellegrino 6-2 7-6(3), Henrique Rocha 1-6 6-4 6-0, Timofey Skatov 6-4 6-3 and Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal, Borges had a good straight sets win against Agustin Tirante (6-3 6-4). During the match, Borges scored 64 points vs Agustin Tirante’s 42. Nuno was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Borges managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Nuno Borges was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 82% (28/34) of his 1st serve and 73% (11/15) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Portuguese broke Agustin Tirante 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nuno has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.

Borges has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 69% of his matches (274-125). 12-6 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Borges has a compiled 121-55 record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Phoenix Challenger where he defeated Matteo Berrettini in the final 7-5 7-6(4).

Borges has an overall 24-18 win-loss record in 2024, 12-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Bastad

Nuno has never competed in this tournament before.

Rafael Nadal

Ranked no. 261, Rafael reached the final after beating Leo Borg 6-3 6-4, Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-4, Mariano Navone 6-7(2) 7-5 7-5 and Duje Ajdukovic 4-6 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal against Ajdukovic, Nadal recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Nadal scored 86 points vs Ajdukovic’s 73. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about serving, Nadal was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Rafael Nadal lost the serve 5 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 80% of his first serves in, winning 62% (39/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the 2nd serve. Rafael was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Ajdukovic 6 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Spaniard’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Bastad.

The Spaniard has a composed 11-5 win-loss record in 2024, 9-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Borges	Nadal
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	82	105
Pts	303-239	351-300
Total Points	542	651
Winners	123	151
%Winners	41%	43%

Both Borges and Nadal played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Nuno Borges conceded 1 set, while Rafael Nadal surrendered 2 sets. Borges has played 1 set(s) less than Nadal (9 vs 10). Therefore, Borges played 23 games less than Nadal. Nuno scored 123 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Rafael recorded 151 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Borges	Nadal
Aces	9	11
Avg per match	2.3	2.8
1st in	176/262	223/313
%1st in	67%	71%
1st pts	123/176	151/223
%1st pts	70%	68%
2nd pts	45/86	47/90
%2nd pts	52%	52%

Borges scored 9 aces (2.3 per match). Nadal managed to score 11 aces (2.8 per match). Borges won 70% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Nadal won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Borges	Nadal
Won	16	21
Converted	16/32	21/38
% Converted	50%	55%
Conceded	21	29
Saved	13	15
% Saved	62%	52%
Times Broken	8	14

The Portuguese broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Portuguese surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 21 times with a 55% conversion rate. Nadal conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 52% of the break points that he conceded.

Borges
	R1 Pellegrino	R2 Rocha	1/4 Skatov	1/2 Agustin	Total
Score	6-2 7-63	1-6 6-4 6-0	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	9
Tot Games	21	23	19	19	82
pts	72-61	98-82	69-54	64-42	303-239
Total points	133	180	123	106	542
Winners	33	30	32	28	123
%Winners	46%	31%	46%	44%	41%
SERVE
Aces	1	1	4	3	9
Double Faults	0	2	3	1	6
1st in	48/63	55/90	39/60	34/49	176/262
% 1st in	76%	61%	65%	69%	67%
1st pts	33/48	30/55	32/39	28/34	123/176
% 1st pts	69%	55%	82%	82%	70%
2nd pts	6/15	20/35	8/21	11/15	45/86
% 2nd pts	40%	57%	38%	73%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	6	3	3	16
Converted	4/6	6/13	3/7	3/6	16/32
Converted %	67%	46%	43%	50%	50%
Conceded	5	11	2	3	21
Saved	3/5	7/11	1/2	2/3	13
Saved %	60%	64%	50%	67%	60%
Times Broken	2	4	1	1	8

Nadal
	R1 Borg	R2 Norrie	1/4 Navone	1/2 Ajdukovic	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-4 6-4	6-72 7-5 7-5	4-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	10
Tot Games	19	20	37	29	105
pts	61-48	68-53	136-126	86-73	351-300
Total points	109	121	262	159	651
Winners	32	32	48	39	151
%Winners	52%	47%	35%	45%	43%
SERVE
Aces	5	5	1	0	11
Double Faults	0	0	4	0	4
1st in	39/53	43/60	78/121	63/79	223/313
% 1st in	74%	72%	64%	80%	71%
1st pts	32/39	32/43	48/78	39/63	151/223
% 1st pts	82%	74%	62%	62%	68%
2nd pts	9/14	11/17	17/43	10/16	47/90
% 2nd pts	64%	65%	40%	63%	52%
Breaks
Won	2	3	10	6	21
Converted	2/4	3/7	10/21	6/6	21/38
Converted %	50%	43%	48%	100%	55%
Conceded	0	4	15	10	29
Saved	0/0	3/4	7/15	5/10	15
Saved %	–	75%	47%	50%	43%
Times Broken	0	1	8	5	14

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Nuno BorgesBorges – Rafael NadalNadal (0-0) – H2H and prediction