H2H, prediction of Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys in Wimbledon with odds, preview, pick | 7th July 2024

PREVIEW. London. Paolini and Keys will fight against each other in the 4th round of Wimbledon. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Sunday the 7th of July

By
Mark Hall
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Madison Keys

Jasmine Paolini and Madison Keys will square off in the 4th round of Wimbledon for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Court 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.39
Jasmine Paolini -> 3.02

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

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Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 2nd time that Jasmine Paolini and Madison Keys face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on grass.

The last time that they played, Keys won 6-1 6-1 in the 1st round in Dubai back in 2023.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Jasmine Paolini – Dubai 19-February-2023

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
4
High
4
WWWWWWWLWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-8 12-6 11-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 42-21 19-10 12-5 3-4 8-2 0-0
2023 43-30 20-16 16-8 5-3 2-3 0-0
2022 30-25 14-11 10-10 6-3 0-1 0-0
2021 34-24 17-13 12-7 5-3 0-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 7 (career-high), Jasmine got to the 4th round after beating Sara Sorribes Tormo 7-5 6-3, Greetje Minnen 7-6(5) 6-2, Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 7-6(4) 6-1 and Madison Keys .

In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Andreescu (7-64 6-1). During the match, Paolini scored 69 points vs Andreescu’s 52. Jasmine was very aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Jasmine Paolini was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (28/37) of her 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jasmine broke Andreescu 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 56% of the points she played.

Paolini has favorable match record in the last 10 years having won 57% of her matches (312-237). 5-1 on grass in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Paolini has an overall 11-14 match record in the last years on grass.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Dubai where she overcame Anna Kalinskaya in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.

Jasmine has an aggregate 27-12 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wimbledon

Paolini
Wimbledon
Paolini's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys
Madison Keys

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
8
High
5
LWLWWWLWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 24-6 19-3 5-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 13, Keys got to the 4th round after beating Martina Trevisan 6-4 7-6(4), Yafan Wang 6-2 6-2 and Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-3.

In the 3rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Kostyuk (6-4 6-3). During the match Keys scored 68 points vs Kostyuk’s 53. Keys was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.

About the serving games, Keys recorded 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Madison Keys was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (32/45) of her 1st serve and 60% (6/10) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Kostyuk 4 times after converting 36% of her break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Strasbourg where she overcame Danielle Rose Collins in the final 6-1 6-2.

The American has an overall 20-7 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wimbledon

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2015 and 2023. See her history.

Keys
Wimbledon
Keys's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Paolini
M.Keys
4h:40
4h:40
Time on court​
4h:23
4h:23
1h:31
1h:31
Last match​
1h:21
1h:21
3
3
Match played
3
3
62
62
Games Played​
58
58
6
6
Set played​​
6
6
222
222
Total points​
220
220
74
74
Avg point​
73.3
73.3
84
84
Winners
96
96
28
28
Avg Winners​
32
32
38%
38%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
2
2
Aces
13
13
0.7
0.7
Avg Aces
4.3
4.3
4
4
Double Faults
6
6
1.3
1.3
Avg Double Faults
2
2
84/125
84/125
1st won total​
96/132
96/132
67%
67%
1st won %
!
73%
73%
30/63
30/63
2nd won total​
24/42
24/42
48%
48%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
16/31
16/31
BP won
10/32
10/32
5.3/10.3
5.3/10.3
Avg BP won
3.3/10.7
3.3/10.7
!
52%
52%
Won
31%
31%
20
20
Conceded
5
5
6.7
6.7
Avg Conceded
1.7
1.7
9
9
Broken
2
2
3
3
Avg Broken
!
0.7
0.7
11
11
Saved
3
3
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Paolini Keys
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 6 6
Tot Games 62 58
Pts 222-176 220-177
Total Points 398 397
Winners 84 96
%Winners 38% 44%

Both Paolini and Keys played 3 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paolini and Keys have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Paolini played 4 games more than Keys. Paolini scored 84 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Keys blasted 96 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Paolini Keys
Aces 2 13
Avg per match 0.7 4.3
1st in 125/188 132/174
%1st in 66% 76%
1st pts 84/125 96/132
%1st pts 67% 73%
2nd pts 30/63 24/42
%2nd pts 48% 57%

Paolini bagged 2 aces (0.7 per match). Keys made 13 aces (4.3 per match). Paolini won 67% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Paolini Keys
Won 16 10
Converted 16/31 10/32
% Converted 52% 31%
Conceded 20 5
Saved 11 3
% Saved 55% 60%
Times Broken 9 2

Paolini broke her opponents 16 times with a 52% conversion rate. Jasmine surrendered her serve 9 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 10 times with a 31% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.

Paolini
R1
Sorribes Tormo		 R2
Minnen		 R3
Andreescu		 Total
Score 7-5 6-3 7-65 6-2 7-64 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 21 21 20 62
pts 75-60 78-64 69-52 222-176
Total points 135 142 121 398
Winners 34 22 28 84
%Winners 45% 28% 41% 38%
SERVE
Aces 1 0 1 2
Double Faults 1 2 1 4
1st in 51/74 37/58 37/56 125/188
% 1st in 69% 64% 66% 66%
1st pts 34/51 22/37 28/37 84/125
% 1st pts 67% 59% 76% 67%
2nd pts 9/23 11/21 10/19 30/63
% 2nd pts 39% 52% 53% 48%
Breaks
Won 6 6 4 16
Converted 6/12 6/12 4/7 16/31
Converted % 50% 50% 57% 52%
Conceded 11 8 1 20
Saved 7/11 4/8 0/1 11
Saved % 64% 50% 0% 38%
Times Broken 4 4 1 9
Keys
R1
Trevisan		 R2
Wang		 R3
Kostyuk		 Total
Score 6-4 7-64 6-2 6-2 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 23 16 19 58
pts 81-74 71-50 68-53 220-177
Total points 155 121 121 397
Winners 34 30 32 96
%Winners 42% 42% 47% 44%
SERVE
Aces 6 5 2 13
Double Faults 2 3 1 6
1st in 53/74 34/45 45/55 132/174
% 1st in 72% 76% 82% 76%
1st pts 34/53 30/34 32/45 96/132
% 1st pts 64% 88% 71% 73%
2nd pts 14/21 4/11 6/10 24/42
% 2nd pts 67% 36% 60% 57%
Breaks
Won 2 4 4 10
Converted 2/7 4/14 4/11 10/32
Converted % 29% 29% 36% 31%
Conceded 4 0 1 5
Saved 3/4 0/0 0/1 3
Saved % 75% – 0% 25%
Times Broken 1 0 1 2

Head 2 Head

Jasmine Paolini
  • 0Slam
  • 3Main
  • 8ITF
  • 3Minor
Madison Keys
  • 1Slam
  • 11Main
  • 2ITF
  • 1Minor

Jasmine
Paolini

1:1

Madison
Keys

Rank

4

High

4

0Hard1

1Grass0

Rank

8

High

5

Win Loss
Paolini
WWWWWWWLWL
Keys
LWLWWWLWLW
2025 2024 2023
23 - 8
24 - 6
12-6
Hard
19-3
11-2
Clay
5-3

Tennis Scores – Wimbledon

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw

Paolini Jasmine Paolini
More Stats
Click here
Keys Madison Keys