Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Maks Kasnikowski will face off in the final of the Poznan Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.66
Maks Kasnikowski -> 2.14

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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Maks Kasnikowski

This will be the 3rd time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Maks Kasnikowski clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Ugo Carabelli (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Ugo Carabelli won 5-7 6-4 6-1 in the 1st round in the Poznan Challenger back in 2022.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

31 - 15win/loss

Hard
2-1
I Hard
0-0
Clay
29-14
Rank
108
High
91
LWWLWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 51-28 2-4 49-23 0-0 0-1 0-0
2023 41-26 0-2 41-24 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 39-24 3-4 36-19 0-0 0-1 0-0
2021 43-24 4-2 39-22 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 19-12 0-1 18-10 1-1 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 114, the Argentine reached the final after defeating Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo 6-4 6-2, Daniel Dutra Da Silva 6-4 7-5, Gastao Elias 5-7 7-5 6-3 and Genaro Alberto Olivieri 6-4 6-4.

In the semifinal, Camilo had a good straight sets win against Alberto Olivieri (6-4 6-4). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 69 points vs Alberto Olivieri’s 58. The Argentine was pretty aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 80% of his first serves in, winning 67% (38/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (6/14) on the 2nd serve. Camilo broke Alberto Olivieri 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ugo Carabelli has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Ugo Carabelli has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 64% of his matches (319-183). 29-14 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Ugo Carabelli has a composed290-158 match record in the last 9 years on clay.

His best result of the year was conquering the title the Piracicaba Challenger where he defeated Federico Coria in the final 7-5 6-4 and the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger where he overcame Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco in the final 6-4 6-2.

The Argentine has a composed 31-15 win-loss record in 2024, 29-14 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Poznan Challenger

Poznan Challenger
Ugo Carabelli's Record

Maks Kasnikowski

Maks Kasnikowski

31 - 16win/loss

Hard
3-4
I Hard
9-3
Clay
19-9
Rank
186
High
168
LWLLWWLLLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 40-28 6-8 22-13 12-7 0-0 0-0
2023 40-25 13-6 22-14 5-5 0-0 0-0
2022 44-19 16-7 20-10 8-2 0-0 0-0
2021 11-11 7-5 4-6 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 1-1 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 230 (career-high), Maks reached the final after beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 7-67, Giovanni Fonio 6-3 7-60, Dalibor Svrcina 6-4 6-3

and Kamil Majchrzak 3-6 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal against Majchrzak, Maks recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Kasnikowski scored 85 points vs Majchrzak’s 81. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.

About the serving games, Kasnikowski recorded 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Maks Kasnikowski was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (39/47) of his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Pole broke Majchrzak twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Maks has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Oeiras 1 Challenger where he beat Gastao Elias in the final 7-6(1) 4-6 6-3.

Kasnikowski has a composed 31-16 win-loss record in 2024, 19-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Poznan Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.

Poznan Challenger
Kasnikowski's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Ugo Carabelli
M.Kasnikowski
8h:05
8h:05
Time on court​
7h:35
7h:35
1h:36
1h:36
Last match​
!
2h:07
2h:07
4
4
Match played
4
4
93
93
Games Played​
91
91
9
9
Set played​​
9
9
329
329
Total points​
319
319
82.3
82.3
Avg point​
79.8
79.8
148
148
Winners
135
135
37
37
Avg Winners​
33.8
33.8
45%
45%
Ratio winners
42%
42%
-- Serve --
2
2
Aces
14
14
0.5
0.5
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
10
10
Double Faults
13
13
2.5
2.5
Avg Double Faults
3.3
3.3
148/224
148/224
1st won total​
135/188
135/188
66%
66%
1st won %
!
72%
72%
50/107
50/107
2nd won total​
64/130
64/130
47%
47%
2nd won %
49%
49%
-- Break Points --
20/39
20/39
BP won
15/32
15/32
5/9.8
5/9.8
Avg BP won
3.8/8
3.8/8
!
51%
51%
Won
47%
47%
39
39
Conceded
25
25
9.8
9.8
Avg Conceded
6.3
6.3
12
12
Broken
10
10
3
3
Avg Broken
2.5
2.5
27
27
Saved
15
15

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Ugo Carabelli Kasnikowski
Match played 4 4
Tot Set 9 9
Tot Games 93 91
Pts 329-284 319-280
Total Points 613 599
Winners 148 135
%Winners 45% 42%

Both Ugo Carabelli and Kasnikowski played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli conceded 1 set, while Maks Kasnikowski surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and Kasnikowski have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ugo Carabelli played 2 games more than Kasnikowski. Camilo scored 148 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Maks blasted 135 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve Ugo Carabelli Kasnikowski
Aces 2 14
Avg per match 0.5 3.5
1st in 224/331 188/318
%1st in 68% 59%
1st pts 148/224 135/188
%1st pts 66% 72%
2nd pts 50/107 64/130
%2nd pts 47% 49%

Ugo Carabelli struck 2 aces (0.5 per match). Kasnikowski struck 14 aces (3.5 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 66% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Kasnikowski won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Ugo Carabelli Kasnikowski
Won 20 15
Converted 20/39 15/32
% Converted 51% 47%
Conceded 39 25
Saved 27 15
% Saved 69% 60%
Times Broken 12 10

Ugo Carabelli broke his opponents 20 times with a 51% conversion rate. Camilo conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. Maks broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Kasnikowski conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Ugo Carabelli
R1
Sanchez-Izquierdo
R2
Dutra Da Silva
1/4
Elias
1/2
Alberto Olivieri
Total
Score 6-4 6-2 6-4 7-5 5-7 7-5 6-3 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 3 2 9
Tot Games 18 22 33 20 93
pts 66-49 80-68 114-109 69-58 329-284
Total points 115 148 223 127 613
Winners 24 34 52 38 148
%Winners 36% 43% 46% 55% 45%
SERVE
Aces 1 0 0 1 2
Double Faults 2 2 3 3 10
1st in 36/61 55/82 76/117 57/71 224/331
% 1st in 59% 67% 65% 80% 68%
1st pts 24/36 34/55 52/76 38/57 148/224
% 1st pts 67% 62% 68% 67% 66%
2nd pts 13/25 13/27 18/41 6/14 50/107
% 2nd pts 52% 48% 44% 43% 47%
Breaks
Won 5 6 5 4 20
Converted 5/12 6/11 5/11 4/5 20/39
Converted % 42% 55% 45% 80% 51%
Conceded 5 14 14 6 39
Saved 3/5 10/14 10/14 4/6 27
Saved % 60% 71% 71% 67% 67%
Times Broken 2 4 4 2 12
Kasnikowski
R1
Ramos-Vinolas
R2
Fonio
1/4
Svrcina
1/2
Majchrzak
Total
Score 6-3 7-67 6-3 7-60 6-4 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 9
Tot Games 22 22 19 28 91
pts 87-83 74-56 73-60 85-81 319-280
Total points 170 130 133 166 599
Winners 43 27 26 39 135
%Winners 49% 36% 36% 46% 42%
SERVE
Aces 2 3 5 4 14
Double Faults 7 4 0 2 13
1st in 66/111 34/58 41/69 47/80 188/318
% 1st in 59% 59% 59% 59% 59%
1st pts 43/66 27/34 26/41 39/47 135/188
% 1st pts 65% 79% 63% 83% 72%
2nd pts 18/45 15/24 14/28 17/33 64/130
% 2nd pts 40% 63% 50% 52% 49%
Breaks
Won 5 3 5 2 15
Converted 5/8 3/9 5/9 2/6 15/32
Converted % 63% 33% 56% 33% 47%
Conceded 16 2 5 2 25
Saved 12/16 0/2 2/5 1/2 15
Saved % 75% 0% 40% 50% 41%
Times Broken 4 2 3 1 10

Upcoming matches in the draw