Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Maks Kasnikowski will face off in the final of the Poznan Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.66
Maks Kasnikowski -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Maks Kasnikowski
This will be the 3rd time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Maks Kasnikowski clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Ugo Carabelli (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Ugo Carabelli won 5-7 6-4 6-1 in the 1st round in the Poznan Challenger back in 2022.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
31 - 15win/loss
97
91
LWWWWLWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-12 | 0-1 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 114, the Argentine reached the final after defeating Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo 6-4 6-2, Daniel Dutra Da Silva 6-4 7-5, Gastao Elias 5-7 7-5 6-3 and Genaro Alberto Olivieri 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal, Camilo had a good straight sets win against Alberto Olivieri (6-4 6-4). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 69 points vs Alberto Olivieri’s 58. The Argentine was pretty aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 80% of his first serves in, winning 67% (38/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (6/14) on the 2nd serve. Camilo broke Alberto Olivieri 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ugo Carabelli has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Ugo Carabelli has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 64% of his matches (319-183). 29-14 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Ugo Carabelli has a composed290-158 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the year was conquering the title the Piracicaba Challenger where he defeated Federico Coria in the final 7-5 6-4 and the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger where he overcame Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco in the final 6-4 6-2.
The Argentine has a composed 31-15 win-loss record in 2024, 29-14 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Poznan Challenger
Maks Kasnikowski
31 - 16win/loss
182
168
LWLLWWLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40-28 | 6-8 | 22-13 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-25 | 13-6 | 22-14 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-19 | 16-7 | 20-10 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-11 | 7-5 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 230 (career-high), Maks reached the final after beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 7-67, Giovanni Fonio 6-3 7-60, Dalibor Svrcina 6-4 6-3 and Kamil Majchrzak 3-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Majchrzak, Maks recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Kasnikowski scored 85 points vs Majchrzak’s 81. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
About the serving games, Kasnikowski recorded 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Maks Kasnikowski was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (39/47) of his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Pole broke Majchrzak twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maks has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Oeiras 1 Challenger where he beat Gastao Elias in the final 7-6(1) 4-6 6-3.
Kasnikowski has a composed 31-16 win-loss record in 2024, 19-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Poznan Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ugo Carabelli | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 91 |
| Pts | 329-284 | 319-280 |
| Total Points | 613 | 599 |
| Winners | 148 | 135 |
| %Winners | 45% | 42% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and Kasnikowski played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli conceded 1 set, while Maks Kasnikowski surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and Kasnikowski have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ugo Carabelli played 2 games more than Kasnikowski. Camilo scored 148 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Maks blasted 135 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ugo Carabelli | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 224/331 | 188/318 |
| %1st in | 68% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 148/224 | 135/188 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 50/107 | 64/130 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 49% |
Ugo Carabelli struck 2 aces (0.5 per match). Kasnikowski struck 14 aces (3.5 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 66% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Kasnikowski won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | Kasnikowski |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 15 |
| Converted | 20/39 | 15/32 |
| % Converted | 51% | 47% |
| Conceded | 39 | 25 |
| Saved | 27 | 15 |
| % Saved | 69% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 12 | 10 |
Ugo Carabelli broke his opponents 20 times with a 51% conversion rate. Camilo conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. Maks broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Kasnikowski conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
| R1 Sanchez-Izquierdo |
R2 Dutra Da Silva |
1/4 Elias |
1/2 Alberto Olivieri |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 7-5 | 5-7 7-5 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 22 | 33 | 20 | 93 | |
| pts | 66-49 | 80-68 | 114-109 | 69-58 | 329-284 | |
| Total points | 115 | 148 | 223 | 127 | 613 | |
| Winners | 24 | 34 | 52 | 38 | 148 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 43% | 46% | 55% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 36/61 | 55/82 | 76/117 | 57/71 | 224/331 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 67% | 65% | 80% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 24/36 | 34/55 | 52/76 | 38/57 | 148/224 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 62% | 68% | 67% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/25 | 13/27 | 18/41 | 6/14 | 50/107 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 48% | 44% | 43% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 6/11 | 5/11 | 4/5 | 20/39 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 55% | 45% | 80% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 39 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 4/6 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 71% | 71% | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
| Kasnikowski | ||||||
| R1 Ramos-Vinolas |
R2 Fonio |
1/4 Svrcina |
1/2 Majchrzak |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-67 | 6-3 7-60 | 6-4 6-3 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | 19 | 28 | 91 | |
| pts | 87-83 | 74-56 | 73-60 | 85-81 | 319-280 | |
| Total points | 170 | 130 | 133 | 166 | 599 | |
| Winners | 43 | 27 | 26 | 39 | 135 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 36% | 36% | 46% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 66/111 | 34/58 | 41/69 | 47/80 | 188/318 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 43/66 | 27/34 | 26/41 | 39/47 | 135/188 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 79% | 63% | 83% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/45 | 15/24 | 14/28 | 17/33 | 64/130 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 63% | 50% | 52% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 3/9 | 5/9 | 2/6 | 15/32 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 33% | 56% | 33% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 25 | |
| Saved | 12/16 | 0/2 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 0% | 40% | 50% | 41% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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