Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva will fight against each other in the quarter of the French Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 4:15 pm on Court PHILIPPE-CHATRIER. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.22
Mirra Andreeva -> 4.5
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-1 6-4 in the quarter in Madrid back in May 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva – Madrid 01-May-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-3 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the quarter after beating Erika Andreeva 6-1 6-2, Moyuka Uchijima 6-2 6-2, Paula Badosa Gibert 7-5 6-1 and Emma Navarro 6-2 6-3.
In the 4th round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-2 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Navarro’s 41. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka struck 7 aces and she was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was very effective on serve to win 85% (22/26) of her 1st serve and 65% (11/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna broke Navarro 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 60% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (347-161). 15-3 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate77-38 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has an overall 29-7 win-loss record in 2024, 15-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Mirra Andreeva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-3 | 15-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-16 | 18-9 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-9 | 7-4 | 23-4 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-9 | 21-5 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 38, Andreeva reached the quarter after beating Emina Bektas 6-2 6-3, Victoria Azarenka 6-3 3-6 7-5, Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-1 and Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-2.
In the 4th round, Andreeva had a good straight sets win against Gracheva (7-5 6-2). During the match Andreeva scored 73 points vs Gracheva’s 55. Andreeva was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Andreeva made 5 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Mirra Andreeva was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 71% (24/34) of her 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Mirra broke Gracheva 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andreeva has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Andreeva has an overall 16-7 win-loss record in 2024, 10-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 67 | 82 |
| Pts | 249-163 | 300-239 |
| Total Points | 412 | 539 |
| Winners | 89 | 107 |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% |
Both Sabalenka and Andreeva played 4 matches. At the moment, Mirra Andreeva lost 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Andreeva (8 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 15 games less than Andreeva. The Belarussian scored 89 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Mirra scored 107 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 122/191 | 154/272 |
| %1st in | 64% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 89/122 | 107/154 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 42/69 | 50/118 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 42% |
Sabalenka fired 10 aces (2.5 per match). Andreeva managed to score 13 aces (3.3 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 26 |
| Converted | 20/41 | 26/43 |
| % Converted | 49% | 60% |
| Conceded | 11 | 32 |
| Saved | 7 | 19 |
| % Saved | 64% | 59% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 13 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 20 times with a 49% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 26 times with a 60% conversion rate. Andreeva conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Andreeva |
R2 Uchijima |
R3 Badosa |
R4 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 67 | |
| pts | 56-33 | 62-38 | 67-51 | 64-41 | 249-163 | |
| Total points | 89 | 100 | 118 | 105 | 412 | |
| Winners | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 32/50 | 29/47 | 35/51 | 26/43 | 122/191 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 62% | 69% | 60% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 23/32 | 22/29 | 22/35 | 22/26 | 89/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 76% | 63% | 85% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 13/18 | 8/16 | 11/17 | 42/69 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 72% | 50% | 65% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 20 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 4/7 | 7/18 | 4/10 | 20/41 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 57% | 39% | 40% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 4/4 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | 25% | – | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Andreeva | ||||||
| R1 Bektas |
R2 Azarenka |
R3 Stearns |
R4 Gracheva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 3-6 7-5 | 6-2 6-1 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 30 | 15 | 20 | 82 | |
| pts | 65-44 | 99-94 | 63-46 | 73-55 | 300-239 | |
| Total points | 109 | 193 | 109 | 128 | 539 | |
| Winners | 30 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 29% | 38% | 33% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 36/56 | 48/98 | 36/55 | 34/63 | 154/272 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 49% | 65% | 54% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 30/36 | 29/48 | 24/36 | 24/34 | 107/154 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 60% | 67% | 71% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/20 | 18/50 | 9/19 | 16/29 | 50/118 | |
| % 2nd pts | 35% | 36% | 47% | 55% | 42% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 26 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 10/13 | 6/11 | 5/9 | 26/43 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 77% | 55% | 56% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 32 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 8/17 | 2/3 | 5/7 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 47% | 67% | 71% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWWWWW
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