Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the 3rd round of the French Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:00 pm on Court SUZANNE-LENGLEN. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Andrey Rublev who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Andrey Rublev is the pick to win this match.
Andrey Rublev -> 1.35
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.22
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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 2nd time that Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rublev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Rublev won 7-5 6-3 in the 2nd round in Vienna back in 2023.
Highlights Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi – Vienna 26-October-2023
Andrey Rublev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-5 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Rublev got to the 3rd round after defeating Taro Daniel 6-2 6-73 6-3 7-5 and Pedro Martinez Portero 6-3 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Rublev had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (6-3 6-4 6-3). During the match, Rublev scored 105 points vs Martinez Portero’s 76. Rublev was quite aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rublev struck 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Andrey Rublev was extremely effective on serve to win 80% (43/54) of his 1st serve and 61% (19/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Russian broke Martinez Portero 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rublev has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Rublev has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (414-229). 9-3 on clay in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Rublev has a compiled 106-64 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Hong Kong where he overcame Emil Ruusuvuori in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Madrid where he defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.
Andrey has an overall 24-9 win-loss record in 2024, 9-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 35 (career-high), Matteo reached the 3rd round after beating Arthur Fils 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2 and Alexandre Muller 6-4 6-1 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Muller (6-4 6-1 6-3). During the match Arnaldi scored 116 points vs Muller’s 90. Matteo was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Arnaldi bagged 11 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 18 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 55% of his first serves in, winning 69% (45/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (23/54) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Muller 8 times after converting 44% of his break points (8/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Matteo has a compiled 18-13 win-loss record in 2024, 8-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 70 | 63 |
| Pts | 264-204 | 231-187 |
| Total Points | 468 | 418 |
| Winners | 101 | 89 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Both Rublev and Arnaldi played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev lost 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Rublev and Arnaldi have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Rublev played 7 games more than Arnaldi. Andrey scored 101 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo managed to score 89 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 13.5 | 8 |
| 1st in | 119/214 | 136/231 |
| %1st in | 56% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 101/119 | 89/136 |
| %1st pts | 85% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 55/95 | 45/95 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 47% |
Rublev managed to score 27 aces (13.5 per match). Arnaldi bagged 16 aces (8 per match). Rublev won 85% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 65% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 17 |
| Converted | 10/29 | 17/33 |
| % Converted | 34% | 52% |
| Conceded | 11 | 36 |
| Saved | 10 | 27 |
| % Saved | 91% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 9 |
Rublev broke his opponents 10 times with a 34% conversion rate. The Russian dropped his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rublev | ||||
| R1 Daniel |
R2 Martinez Portero |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-73 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 42 | 28 | 70 | |
| pts | 159-128 | 105-76 | 264-204 | |
| Total points | 287 | 181 | 468 | |
| Winners | 58 | 43 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 41% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 17 | 10 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 65/129 | 54/85 | 119/214 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 64% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 58/65 | 43/54 | 101/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 80% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 36/64 | 19/31 | 55/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 61% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/15 | 5/14 | 10/29 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 36% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 2 | 11 | |
| Saved | 9/9 | 1/2 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||
| R1 Fils |
R2 Muller |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 37 | 26 | 63 | |
| pts | 115-97 | 116-90 | 231-187 | |
| Total points | 212 | 206 | 418 | |
| Winners | 44 | 45 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 11 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 71/112 | 65/119 | 136/231 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 55% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 44/71 | 45/65 | 89/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 69% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/41 | 23/54 | 45/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 43% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 9 | 8 | 17 | |
| Converted | 9/15 | 8/18 | 17/33 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 44% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 15 | 21 | 36 | |
| Saved | 9/15 | 18/21 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 86% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWWL
LLWWLWWLLW Tennis Scores – French Open
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-1 5-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – David GoffinGoffin (7-64 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Luciano DarderiDarderi (7-62 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-0 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-4 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Zizou BergsBergs – Maximilian MartererMarterer (3-6 6-3 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-4 6-4 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Henri SquireSquire (6-4 4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-74 6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-72 6-1 6-3 7-65) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-3 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Richard GasquetGasquet (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (6-3 6-2 6-72 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-3 6-4 2-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (7-65 6-4 1-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – David GoffinGoffin (7-6(4) 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Luciano DarderiDarderi (7-6(2) 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-1 5-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-4 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Henri SquireSquire (6-4 4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-4 6-4 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-7(2) 6-1 6-3 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-7(4) 6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Zizou BergsBergs – Maximilian MartererMarterer (3-6 6-3 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-0 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Sebastian OfnerOfner – Sebastian BaezBaez (3-6 3-6 6-4 7-5 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Tommy PaulPaul (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Alexander BublikBublik (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Giulio ZeppieriZeppieri (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Jozef KovalikKovalik (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Dusan LajovicLajovic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Casper RuudRuud (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Zizou BergsBergs – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Filip MisolicMisolic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mariano NavoneNavone – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
