Keegan Smith and Axel Nefve will square off in the qualifications of the Little Rock Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:30 pm on COURT 13. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Keegan Smith who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Keegan Smith is the pick to win this match.
Keegan Smith -> 1.61
Axel Nefve -> 2.22
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Prediction and head to head Keegan Smith vs. Axel Nefve
This will be the 2nd time that Keegan Smith and Axel Nefve play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Smith (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Smith won 6-3 6-2 in the 2nd round in M15 Albuquerque back in 2023.
Keegan Smith
14 - 10win/loss
592
339
LWWLWLWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17-13 | 17-11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-26 | 31-20 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-24 | 26-14 | 3-4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-5 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 592, Smith reached the qualifications after beating Andres Urrea 7-5 6-0.
In the qualifications, Keegan had a good straight sets win against Urrea (7-5 6-0). During the match, Smith scored 66 points vs Urrea’s 40. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Smith blasted 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Keegan Smith was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (30/39) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Keegan was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Urrea 4 times.
Smith has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 61% of his matches (145-92). 13-8 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Smith has an overall124-68 record in the last 9 years on hard.
The American has an aggregate 13-10 win-loss record in 2024, 13-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Little Rock Challenger
Axel Nefve
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-16 | 8-8 | 10-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 19-13 | 15-9 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 15-8 | 3-3 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 7-7 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 769 (career-high), Nefve reached the qualifications after defeating Strong Kirchheimer 6-4 7-63.
In the qualifications, The American had a good straight sets win against Kirchheimer (6-4 7-63). During the match Nefve scored 73 points vs Kirchheimer’s 60. Axel was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
About the serving games, Nefve recorded 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Axel Nefve was quite effective on serve to win 84% (32/38) of his 1st serve and 65% (17/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The American broke Kirchheimer twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
The American’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in M25 Wesley Chapel.
Nefve has an overall 18-12 win-loss record in 2024, 7-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Smith | Nefve |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 23 |
| Pts | 66-40 | 73-60 |
| Total Points | 106 | 133 |
| Winners | 30 | 32 |
| %Winners | 45% | 44% |
Both Smith and Nefve played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Smith and Nefve have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Smith played 5 games less than Nefve. Keegan scored 30 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, The American managed to score 32 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Smith | Nefve |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 39/55 | 38/64 |
| %1st in | 71% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 30/39 | 32/38 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 84% |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 17/26 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 65% |
Smith made 5 aces . Nefve blasted 4 aces . Smith won 77% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Nefve won 84% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Smith | Nefve |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 2 |
| Converted | 4/4 | 2/6 |
| % Converted | 100% | 33% |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 |
| Saved | 0 | 3 |
| % Saved | 0% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
The American broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. Keegan was rock solid on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 0 break points. The American broke his opponent twice with a 33% conversion rate. Axel conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Smith | |||
| Q1 Urrea |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 66-40 | 66-40 | |
| Total points | 106 | 106 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 39/55 | 39/55 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 30/39 | 30/39 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 9/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Nefve | |||
| Q1 Kirchheimer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 23 | |
| pts | 73-60 | 73-60 | |
| Total points | 133 | 133 | |
| Winners | 32 | 32 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 38/64 | 38/64 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 32/38 | 32/38 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/26 | 17/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 65% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 2/6 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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