Alexander Bublik and Pavel Kotov will square off in the quarter of the Open Parc for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 5:00 pm on COURT CENTRAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pavel Kotov is the pick to win this match.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.79
Alexander Bublik -> 2.03
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Prediction and head to head Alexander Bublik vs. Pavel Kotov
This will be the 2nd time that Alexander Bublik and Pavel Kotov clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Bublik (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Bublik won 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2 in the 3rd round in the Budapest Challenger back in 2019.
Alexander Bublik
17 - 10win/loss
17
17
LWLWWLLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-12 | 9-6 | 5-5 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-17 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 8-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Alexander got to the quarter after defeating Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 6-2.
In the 2nd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Vukic (6-4 6-2). During the match, Bublik scored 58 points vs Vukic’s 47. The Kazakhstani was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Bublik managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Alexander Bublik was quite efficient on serve to win 83% (24/29) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kazakhstani was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Vukic 3 times.
Bublik has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (325-238). 3-3 on clay in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Bublik has a composed 43-52 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Montpellier where he defeated Borna Coric in the final 5-7 6-2 6-3.
Alexander has a composed 17-10 win-loss record in 2024, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Lyon
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 57 (career-high), Kotov got to the quarter after beating Pedro Cachin 6-1 6-4 and Alexandre Muller 7-68 6-1.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Muller (7-68 6-1). During the match Kotov scored 69 points vs Muller’s 56. Pavel was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Kotov recorded 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Pavel Kotov lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 64% of his first serves in, winning 77% (34/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (12/25) on the 2nd serve. Kotov was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Muller 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Kotov’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Marrakech.
The Russian has a compiled 12-10 win-loss record in 2024, 8-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bublik | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 37 |
| Pts | 58-47 | 126-90 |
| Total Points | 105 | 216 |
| Winners | 24 | 56 |
| %Winners | 41% | 44% |
Bublik played 1 match while Kotov competed in 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Bublik has played 2 set(s) less than Kotov (2 vs 4). Therefore, Bublik played 19 games less than Kotov. The Kazakhstani scored 24 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian struck 56 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bublik | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 4 |
| 1st in | 29/53 | 68/107 |
| %1st in | 55% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 24/29 | 56/68 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 15/24 | 22/39 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 56% |
Bublik made 10 aces . Kotov made 8 aces (4 per match). Bublik won 83% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Kotov won 82% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bublik | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 7 |
| Converted | 3/3 | 7/9 |
| % Converted | 100% | 78% |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 |
| Saved | 2 | 1 |
| % Saved | 100% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
Alexander broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani pretty solid on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Russian broke his opponents 7 times with a 78% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bublik | |||
| R2 Vukic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 58-47 | 58-47 | |
| Total points | 105 | 105 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 29/53 | 29/53 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 24/29 | 24/29 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/24 | 15/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Kotov | ||||
| R1 Cachin |
R2 Muller |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 7-68 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 | 37 | |
| pts | 57-34 | 69-56 | 126-90 | |
| Total points | 91 | 125 | 216 | |
| Winners | 22 | 34 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 49% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 2 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 24/38 | 44/69 | 68/107 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 22/24 | 34/44 | 56/68 | |
| % 1st pts | 92% | 77% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/14 | 12/25 | 22/39 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 48% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 3/3 | 7/9 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 100% | 78% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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