Alexander Zverev and Nicolas Jarry will clash against each other in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexander Zverev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alexander Zverev is the pick to win this match.
Alexander Zverev -> 1.42
Nicolas Jarry -> 2.95
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Prediction and head to head Alexander Zverev vs. Nicolas Jarry
This will be the 7th time that Alexander Zverev and Nicolas Jarry square off. The head to head is 4-2 for Zverev (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on clay.
The last time that they played, Zverev won 6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 in the quarter in Beijing back in 2023.
Highlights Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry – Beijing 02-October-2023
Alexander Zverev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-9 | 18-6 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-27 | 22-13 | 20-7 | 8-5 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-10 | 9-4 | 17-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 59-15 | 28-6 | 14-4 | 13-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-11 | 12-7 | 3-1 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Zverev reached the final after defeating Aleksandar Vukic 6-0 6-4, Luciano Darderi 7-63 6-2, Nuno Borges 6-2 7-5, Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-3 and Alejandro Tabilo 1-6 7-64 6-2.
In the semifinal against Tabilo, The German recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-64 6-2).During the match, Zverev scored less points (3) than Tabilo. In fact, the world no. 5 won 82 points vs Tabilo’s. That means that Zverev was more focused during the important points. The German was extremely aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about the service games, Zverev fired 10 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Alexander Zverev lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Zverev put 69% of his first serves in, winning 80% (45/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 36% (9/25) on the 2nd serve. Zverev broke Tabilo twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Zverev has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Zverev has an impressive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of his matches (441-190). 9-3 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Zverev has a compiled 143-51 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in the final 6-7(3) 7-6(6) 6-4.
Alexander has an overall 27-9 win-loss record in 2024, 9-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Nicolas Jarry
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-13 | 7-5 | 9-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-21 | 14-7 | 21-8 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 8-5 | 30-16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-22 | 13-4 | 32-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Nicolas reached the final after beating Matteo Arnaldi 6-2 7-66, Stefano Napolitano 6-2 4-6 6-4, Alexandre Muller 7-5 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6 7-5 6-4 and Tommy Paul 6-3 6-73 6-3.
In the semifinal, Nicolas defeated Paul (6-3 6-73 6-3). During the match Jarry and Paul scored the same amount of points (103). However, the world no. 5 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jarry was extremely aggressive to blast 52 winners.
About the serving games, Jarry bagged 13 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Nicolas Jarry lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Jarry put 66% of his first serves in, winning 67% (52/78) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (21/40) on the 2nd serve. The Chilean broke Paul 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nicolas has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Chilean’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Buenos Aires.
Nicolas has a compiled 16-11 win-loss record in 2024, 9-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2018 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Zverev | Jarry |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 104 | 132 |
| Pts | 337-278 | 451-407 |
| Total Points | 615 | 858 |
| Winners | 170 | 205 |
| %Winners | 50% | 45% |
Both Zverev and Jarry played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alexander Zverev surrendered 1 set, while Nicolas Jarry dropped 3 sets. Zverev has played 2 set(s) less than Jarry (11 vs 13). Therefore, Zverev played 28 games less than Jarry. Alexander scored 170 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Nicolas scored 205 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Zverev | Jarry |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 45 | 49 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 9.8 |
| 1st in | 210/296 | 281/437 |
| %1st in | 71% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 170/210 | 205/281 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 42/86 | 84/156 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 54% |
Zverev managed to score 45 aces (9 per match). Jarry fired 49 aces (9.8 per match). Zverev won 81% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Jarry won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Zverev | Jarry |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 16 |
| Converted | 15/30 | 16/42 |
| % Converted | 50% | 38% |
| Conceded | 9 | 34 |
| Saved | 6 | 27 |
| % Saved | 67% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 7 |
Alexander broke his opponents 15 times with a 50% conversion rate. The German surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Jarry broke his opponents 16 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Chilean conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Zverev | |||||||
| R2 Vukic |
R3 Darderi |
R4 Borges |
1/4 Fritz |
1/2 Tabilo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-4 | 7-63 6-2 | 6-2 7-5 | 6-4 6-3 | 1-6 7-64 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 28 | 104 | |
| pts | 63-43 | 70-57 | 65-47 | 57-46 | 82-85 | 337-278 | |
| Total points | 106 | 127 | 112 | 103 | 167 | 615 | |
| Winners | 24 | 41 | 31 | 29 | 45 | 170 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 59% | 48% | 51% | 55% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 8 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 45 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 30/46 | 49/67 | 38/54 | 37/48 | 56/81 | 210/296 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 73% | 70% | 77% | 69% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 41/49 | 31/38 | 29/37 | 45/56 | 170/210 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 84% | 82% | 78% | 80% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 8/18 | 8/16 | 7/11 | 9/25 | 42/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 44% | 50% | 64% | 36% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/4 | 4/5 | 3/5 | 2/6 | 15/30 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 50% | 80% | 60% | 33% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 50% | – | 50% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Jarry | |||||||
| R2 Arnaldi |
R3 Napolitano |
R4 Muller |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
1/2 Paul |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-66 | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 3-6 7-5 6-4 | 6-3 6-73 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 28 | 21 | 31 | 31 | 132 | |
| pts | 82-65 | 86-79 | 75-59 | 105-101 | 103-103 | 451-407 | |
| Total points | 147 | 165 | 134 | 206 | 206 | 858 | |
| Winners | 34 | 39 | 33 | 47 | 52 | 205 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% | 44% | 45% | 50% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 49 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 43/72 | 51/84 | 41/60 | 68/103 | 78/118 | 281/437 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 61% | 68% | 66% | 66% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 34/43 | 39/51 | 33/41 | 47/68 | 52/78 | 205/281 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 76% | 80% | 69% | 67% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/29 | 16/33 | 10/19 | 21/35 | 21/40 | 84/156 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 48% | 53% | 60% | 53% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 4/8 | 3/9 | 3/9 | 3/6 | 16/42 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 34 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 11/13 | 5/6 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 71% | 67% | 85% | 83% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWL
LLWWWWWLLL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Nicolas JarryJarry (4-2) – H2H and prediction
