Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will play each other in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 11^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 5:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.31
Aryna Sabalenka -> 3.58

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

This will be the 11^th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka fight against each other. The head to head is 7-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on clay.

The last time that they played, Swiatek won 7-5 4-6 7-6(7) in the final in Madrid back in May 2024.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka – Madrid 04-May-2024

Iga Swiatek

Currently world no. 1 Iga got to the final after defeating Bernarda Pera 6-0 6-2, Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-4, Angelique Kerber 7-5 6-3, Madison Keys 6-1 6-3 and Cori Gauff 6-4 6-3.

In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Gauff (6-4 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 76 points vs Gauff’s 62. Swiatek was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace in the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Iga Swiatek was very efficient on serve to win 72% (26/36) of her 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Swiatek broke Gauff 4 times after converting 36% of her break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Swiatek hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (322-71). 13-1 on clay in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a compiled124-17 match record in the last 9 years on clay.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Australia where she beat Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0 and in Madrid where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-5 4-6 7-6(7).

Iga has a composed 37-4 win-loss record in 2024, 13-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the final after defeating Katie Volynets 4-6 6-3 6-2, Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2, Elina Svitolina 4-6 6-1 7-6⁷, Jelena Ostapenko 6-2 6-4 and Danielle Rose Collins 7-5 6-2.

In the semifinal, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Collins (7-5 6-2). During the match Sabalenka scored 67 points vs Collins’s 53. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Sabalenka fired 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was extremely effective on serve to win 74% (26/35) of her 1st serve and 57% (13/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Aryna broke Collins 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she overcame Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.

Aryna has an aggregate 25-6 win-loss record in 2024, 11-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	10	12
Tot Games	89	113
Pts	356-265	406-341
Total Points	621	747
Winners	143	173
%Winners	40%	43%

Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 5 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 2 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set so far. Swiatek has played 2 set(s) less than Sabalenka (10 vs 12). Therefore, Swiatek played 24 games less than Sabalenka. The Pole scored 143 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Belarussian scored 173 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Aces	4	13
Avg per match	0.8	2.6
1st in	204/306	258/373
%1st in	67%	69%
1st pts	143/204	173/258
%1st pts	70%	67%
2nd pts	61/102	60/115
%2nd pts	60%	52%

Swiatek managed to score 4 aces (0.8 per match). Sabalenka bagged 13 aces (2.6 per match). Swiatek won 70% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Won	21	23
Converted	21/51	23/44
% Converted	41%	52%
Conceded	25	38
Saved	20	27
% Saved	80%	71%
Times Broken	5	11

The Pole broke her opponents 21 times with a 41% conversion rate. Iga lost her serve 5 times and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded. The Belarussian broke her opponents 23 times with a 52% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Pera	R3 Putintseva	R4 Kerber	1/4 Keys	1/2 Gauff	Total
Score	6-0 6-2	6-3 6-4	7-5 6-3	6-1 6-3	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	14	19	21	16	19	89
pts	69-44	75-59	74-57	62-43	76-62	356-265
Total points	113	134	131	105	138	621
Winners	21	32	30	34	26	143
%Winners	30%	43%	41%	55%	34%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	0	2	1	1	4
Double Faults	0	2	1	1	1	5
1st in	30/52	45/73	45/62	48/64	36/55	204/306
% 1st in	58%	62%	73%	75%	65%	67%
1st pts	21/30	32/45	30/45	34/48	26/36	143/204
% 1st pts	70%	71%	67%	71%	72%	70%
2nd pts	13/22	17/28	12/17	9/16	10/19	61/102
% 2nd pts	59%	61%	71%	56%	53%	60%
Breaks
Won	6	3	4	4	4	21
Converted	6/15	3/6	4/13	4/6	4/11	21/51
Converted %	40%	50%	31%	67%	36%	41%
Conceded	5	5	3	10	2	25
Saved	4/5	4/5	1/3	10/10	1/2	20
Saved %	80%	80%	33%	100%	50%	69%
Times Broken	1	1	2	0	1	5

Sabalenka
	R2 Volynets	R3 Yastremska	R4 Svitolina	1/4 Ostapenko	1/2 Collins	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 6-2	6-4 6-2	4-6 6-1 7-67	6-2 6-4	7-5 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	2	12
Tot Games	27	18	30	18	20	113
pts	103-89	68-52	106-97	62-50	67-53	406-341
Total points	192	120	203	112	120	747
Winners	43	25	49	30	26	173
%Winners	42%	37%	46%	48%	39%	43%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	3	2	4	13
Double Faults	4	3	1	1	2	11
1st in	68/98	33/50	85/118	37/49	35/58	258/373
% 1st in	69%	66%	72%	76%	60%	69%
1st pts	43/68	25/33	49/85	30/37	26/35	173/258
% 1st pts	63%	76%	58%	81%	74%	67%
2nd pts	12/30	13/17	16/33	6/12	13/23	60/115
% 2nd pts	40%	76%	48%	50%	57%	52%
Breaks
Won	7	3	6	3	4	23
Converted	7/13	3/10	6/7	3/7	4/7	23/44
Converted %	54%	30%	86%	43%	57%	52%
Conceded	16	2	18	0	2	38
Saved	11/16	2/2	13/18	0/0	1/2	27
Saved %	69%	100%	72%	–	50%	58%
Times Broken	5	0	5	0	1	11

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Lloyd HarrisHarris (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (7-3) – H2H and prediction