Tommy Paul and Nicolas Jarry will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 8:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nicolas Jarry who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Nicolas Jarry is the pick to win this match.
Nicolas Jarry -> 1.84
Tommy Paul -> 1.97

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Nicolas Jarry

This will be the 4^th time that Tommy Paul and Nicolas Jarry clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Paul (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Jarry won 3-6 6-1 6-4 7-5 in the 2^nd round in at the French Open back in 2023.

Highlights Nicolas Jarry vs Tommy Paul – French Open 01-June-2023

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 16, Paul got to the semifinal after beating Aslan Karatsev 6-4 6-2, Dominik Koepfer 6-4 6-3, Daniil Medvedev 6-1 6-4 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-5 3-6 6-3.

In the quarter, Tommy defeated Hurkacz (7-5 3-6 6-3). During the match, Paul scored 111 points vs Hurkacz’s 103. Paul was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paul struck 3 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 6 times and he saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 69% of his first serves in, winning 54% (44/81) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (20/36) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke Hurkacz 7 times after converting 54% of his break points (7/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Paul has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (369-212). 5-1 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Paul has an overall 105-56 record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3.

Tommy has an aggregate 19-7 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Nicolas Jarry

Ranked no. 24, Jarry got to the semifinal after beating Matteo Arnaldi 6-2 7-6⁶, Stefano Napolitano 6-2 4-6 6-4, Alexandre Muller 7-5 6-3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6 7-5 6-4.

In the quarter against Tsitsipas, Nicolas recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-4). During the match Jarry scored 105 points vs Tsitsipas’s 101. Jarry was quite aggressive to blast 47 winners.

About the serving games, Jarry scored 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Nicolas Jarry lost the serve twice and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Jarry put 66% of his first serves in, winning 69% (47/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 60% (21/35) on the 2nd serve. The Chilean broke Tsitsipas 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nicolas has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Jarry’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Buenos Aires.

Jarry has an overall 15-11 win-loss record in 2024, 8-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2018 and 2023. See his history

.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paul	Jarry
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	84	101
Pts	313-255	348-304
Total Points	568	652
Winners	122	153
%Winners	39%	44%

Both Paul and Jarry played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Tommy Paul dropped 1 set, while Nicolas Jarry dropped 2 sets. Paul has played 1 set(s) less than Jarry (9 vs 10). Therefore, Paul played 17 games less than Jarry. Tommy scored 122 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Jarry blasted 153 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paul	Jarry
Aces	10	36
Avg per match	2.5	9
1st in	196/295	203/319
%1st in	66%	64%
1st pts	122/196	153/203
%1st pts	62%	75%
2nd pts	61/99	63/116
%2nd pts	62%	54%

Paul fired 10 aces (2.5 per match). Jarry struck 36 aces (9 per match). Paul won 62% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Jarry won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paul	Jarry
Won	19	13
Converted	19/39	13/36
% Converted	49%	36%
Conceded	39	28
Saved	29	22
% Saved	74%	79%
Times Broken	10	6

Tommy broke his opponents 19 times with a 49% conversion rate. Tommy conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded. Nicolas broke his opponents 13 times with a 36% conversion rate. Jarry conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.

Paul
	R2 Karatsev	R3 Koepfer	R4 Medvedev	1/4 Hurkacz	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 6-3	6-1 6-4	7-5 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	18	19	17	30	84
pts	67-55	77-55	58-42	111-103	313-255
Total points	122	132	100	214	568
Winners	29	26	23	44	122
%Winners	43%	34%	40%	40%	39%
SERVE
Aces	3	2	2	3	10
Double Faults	2	3	0	5	10
1st in	43/67	33/53	39/58	81/117	196/295
% 1st in	64%	62%	67%	69%	66%
1st pts	29/43	26/33	23/39	44/81	122/196
% 1st pts	67%	79%	59%	54%	62%
2nd pts	16/24	11/20	14/19	20/36	61/99
% 2nd pts	67%	55%	74%	56%	62%
Breaks
Won	3	4	5	7	19
Converted	3/4	4/16	5/6	7/13	19/39
Converted %	75%	25%	83%	54%	49%
Conceded	9	7	5	18	39
Saved	9/9	5/7	3/5	12/18	29
Saved %	100%	71%	60%	67%	75%
Times Broken	0	2	2	6	10

Jarry
	R2 Arnaldi	R3 Napolitano	R4 Muller	1/4 Tsitsipas	Total
Score	6-2 7-66	6-2 4-6 6-4	7-5 6-3	3-6 7-5 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	3	10
Tot Games	21	28	21	31	101
pts	82-65	86-79	75-59	105-101	348-304
Total points	147	165	134	206	652
Winners	34	39	33	47	153
%Winners	41%	45%	44%	45%	44%
SERVE
Aces	5	8	15	8	36
Double Faults	2	3	1	2	8
1st in	43/72	51/84	41/60	68/103	203/319
% 1st in	60%	61%	68%	66%	64%
1st pts	34/43	39/51	33/41	47/68	153/203
% 1st pts	79%	76%	80%	69%	75%
2nd pts	16/29	16/33	10/19	21/35	63/116
% 2nd pts	55%	48%	53%	60%	54%
Breaks
Won	3	4	3	3	13
Converted	3/10	4/8	3/9	3/9	13/36
Converted %	30%	50%	33%	33%	36%
Conceded	5	7	3	13	28
Saved	4/5	5/7	2/3	11/13	22
Saved %	80%	71%	67%	85%	76%
Times Broken	1	2	1	2	6

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Tommy PaulPaul – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-5 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Sander Gille/Joran VliegenGille/Joran Vliegen (6-2 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Nicolas JarryJarry – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (3-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexander Bublik/Ben SheltonBublik/Ben Shelton – Francisco Cerundolo/Tomas Martin EtcheverryCerundolo/Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-6 6-4 10-5) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Taylor FritzFritz (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury (6-4 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Nicolas JarryJarry – Tommy PaulPaul (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction