Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko will square off in the quarter of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.363
Jelena Ostapenko -> 3.14
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 2-6 6-1 6-1 in the 3rd round in Dubai back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko – Dubai 22-February-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian got to the quarter after beating Katie Volynets 4-6 6-3 6-2, Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2 and Elina Svitolina 4-6 6-1 7-67.
In the 4th round against Svitolina, Sabalenka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-1 7-67). During the match, Sabalenka scored 106 points vs Svitolina’s 97. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 13 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 72% of her first serves in, winning 58% (49/85) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (16/33) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Svitolina 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has conceded 2 set in this event to win 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (341-160). 9-2 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled71-37 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has a composed 23-6 win-loss record in 2024, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Jelena Ostapenko
24 - 9win/loss
15
5
LLLLWLLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 3-2 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, the Latvian got to the quarter after beating Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-4 5-7 6-1 and Rebecca Sramkova 4-6 6-4 7-63.
In the 4th round against Sramkova, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 7-63). During the match Ostapenko scored 113 points vs Sramkova’s 111. Ostapenko was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about serving, Ostapenko bagged 7 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 6 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 57% of her first serves in, winning 58% (36/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (22/46) on the 2nd serve. The Latvian broke Sramkova 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Latvian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she defeated Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Linz where she overcame Ekaterina Alexandrova in the final 6-2 6-3.
Jelena has a compiled 24-9 win-loss record in 2024, 7-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 75 | 80 |
| Pts | 277-238 | 292-268 |
| Total Points | 515 | 560 |
| Winners | 117 | 93 |
| %Winners | 42% | 32% |
Both Sabalenka and Ostapenko played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 2 sets, while Jelena Ostapenko dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Ostapenko have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Sabalenka played 5 games less than Ostapenko. The Belarussian scored 117 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Latvian scored 93 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st in | 186/266 | 161/288 |
| %1st in | 70% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 117/186 | 93/161 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 58% |
| 2nd pts | 41/80 | 58/127 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 46% |
Sabalenka made 7 aces (2.3 per match). Ostapenko scored 8 aces (2.7 per match). Sabalenka won 63% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 58% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 21 |
| Converted | 16/30 | 21/40 |
| % Converted | 53% | 53% |
| Conceded | 36 | 38 |
| Saved | 26 | 22 |
| % Saved | 72% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 16 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 16 times with a 53% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve 10 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Jelena broke her opponents 21 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Latvian conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Volynets |
R3 Yastremska |
R4 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | 4-6 6-1 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 18 | 30 | 75 | |
| pts | 103-89 | 68-52 | 106-97 | 277-238 | |
| Total points | 192 | 120 | 203 | 515 | |
| Winners | 43 | 25 | 49 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 46% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 68/98 | 33/50 | 85/118 | 186/266 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 66% | 72% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 43/68 | 25/33 | 49/85 | 117/186 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 76% | 58% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/30 | 13/17 | 16/33 | 41/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 76% | 48% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 7/13 | 3/10 | 6/7 | 16/30 | |
| Converted % | 54% | 30% | 86% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 16 | 2 | 18 | 36 | |
| Saved | 11/16 | 2/2 | 13/18 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 100% | 72% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | |
| Ostapenko | |||||
| R2 Potapova |
R3 Sorribes Tormo |
R4 Sramkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 5-7 6-1 | 4-6 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 29 | 33 | 80 | |
| pts | 73-63 | 106-94 | 113-111 | 292-268 | |
| Total points | 136 | 200 | 224 | 560 | |
| Winners | 25 | 32 | 36 | 93 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 30% | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 39/76 | 60/104 | 62/108 | 161/288 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 58% | 57% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 25/39 | 32/60 | 36/62 | 93/161 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 53% | 58% | 58% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/37 | 20/44 | 22/46 | 58/127 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 45% | 48% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 9 | 6 | 21 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 9/18 | 6/12 | 21/40 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 50% | 50% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 14 | 15 | 38 | |
| Saved | 6/9 | 7/14 | 9/15 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 50% | 60% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LLLLWLLWWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Sara Errani/Jasmine PaoliniErrani/Jasmine Paolini – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko (6-3 5-7 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Caroline Dolehide/Desirae KrawczykDolehide/Desirae Krawczyk – Giuliana Olmos/Alexandra PanovaOlmos/Alexandra Panova (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Madison KeysKeys (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Christopher EubanksEubanks – Ernesto EscobedoEscobedo (6-4 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thomas FabbianoFabbiano – Martin RedlickiRedlicki (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Prajnesh GunneswaranGunneswaran (4-6 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Liam BroadyBroady (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cori GauffGauff – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
