Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will square off in the quarter of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.096
Madison Keys -> 7.2
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Swiatek won 6-1 6-3 in the semifinal in Madrid back in May 2024.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys – Madrid 02-May-2024
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59-8 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Iga got to the quarter after beating Bernarda Pera 6-0 6-2, Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-4 and Angelique Kerber 7-5 6-3.
In the 4th round, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Kerber (7-5 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 74 points vs Kerber’s 57. Swiatek was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek made 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Iga Swiatek lost the serve twice and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 73% of her first serves in, winning 67% (30/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Kerber 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic match record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (320-71). 11-1 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has a composed122-17 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she overcame Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she defeated Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0 and in Madrid where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-5 4-6 7-6(7).
Iga has a composed 35-4 win-loss record in 2024, 11-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-11 | 7-5 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, the American reached the quarter after beating Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-0 4-6 6-3, Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-4 4-6 6-3 and Sorana Cirstea 6-2 6-1.
In the 4th round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Cirstea (6-2 6-1). During the match Keys scored 58 points vs Cirstea’s 35. Keys was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys bagged 5 aces and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Madison Keys was very efficient on serve to win 71% (25/35) of her 1st serve and 54% (7/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Keys broke Cirstea 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Keys’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Madrid.
Keys has an overall 10-4 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 69 |
| Pts | 218-160 | 240-193 |
| Total Points | 378 | 433 |
| Winners | 83 | 84 |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% |
Both Swiatek and Keys played 3 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 2 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Swiatek has played 2 set(s) less than Keys (6 vs 8). Therefore, Swiatek played 15 games less than Keys. Iga scored 83 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Madison fired 84 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st in | 120/187 | 122/190 |
| %1st in | 64% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 83/120 | 84/122 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 42/67 | 32/68 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 47% |
Swiatek managed to score 2 aces (0.7 per match). Keys struck 11 aces (3.7 per match). Swiatek won 69% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 19 |
| Converted | 13/34 | 19/37 |
| % Converted | 38% | 51% |
| Conceded | 13 | 14 |
| Saved | 9 | 6 |
| % Saved | 69% | 43% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 8 |
The Pole broke her opponents 13 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Pole dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 19 times with a 51% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||
| R2 Pera |
R3 Putintseva |
R4 Kerber |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 19 | 21 | 54 | |
| pts | 69-44 | 75-59 | 74-57 | 218-160 | |
| Total points | 113 | 134 | 131 | 378 | |
| Winners | 21 | 32 | 30 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 43% | 41% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 30/52 | 45/73 | 45/62 | 120/187 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 62% | 73% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 21/30 | 32/45 | 30/45 | 83/120 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 71% | 67% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 17/28 | 12/17 | 42/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 61% | 71% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 3/6 | 4/13 | 13/34 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 50% | 31% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/5 | 1/3 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | 33% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Keys | |||||
| R2 Camila Osorio Serrano |
R3 Haddad Maia |
R4 Cirstea |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 4-6 6-3 | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 29 | 15 | 69 | |
| pts | 90-72 | 92-86 | 58-35 | 240-193 | |
| Total points | 162 | 178 | 93 | 433 | |
| Winners | 31 | 28 | 25 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 30% | 43% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 45/66 | 42/76 | 35/48 | 122/190 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 55% | 73% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 31/45 | 28/42 | 25/35 | 84/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 67% | 71% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/21 | 15/34 | 7/13 | 32/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 44% | 54% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 7 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 7/18 | 7/13 | 5/6 | 19/37 | |
| Converted % | 39% | 54% | 83% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | 2 | 14 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 1/6 | 2/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 17% | 100% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWLWWLLWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Liam BroadyBroady (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Christopher EubanksEubanks – Ernesto EscobedoEscobedo (6-4 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thomas FabbianoFabbiano – Martin RedlickiRedlicki (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Prajnesh GunneswaranGunneswaran (4-6 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Madison KeysKeys (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
