Holger Rune and Sebastian Baez will play each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 6:00 pm on GRAND STAND ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.58
Sebastian Baez -> 2.39
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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Sebastian Baez
This will be the 5th time that Holger Rune and Sebastian Baez square off. The head to head is 2-2 (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they played, Rune won 7-6(2) 6-1 in the 2nd round in Basel back in 2023.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez – Basel 26-October-2023
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-23 | 21-11 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 32-16 | 1-3 | 28-11 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, the Dane reached the 3rd round after beating Luca Nardi 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Holger had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-4 6-4). During the match, Rune scored 70 points vs Nardi’s 56. The Dane was pretty aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rune scored just 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault. Holger Rune was extremely efficient on serve to win 79% (31/39) of his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Dane broke Nardi twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Rune has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 66% of his matches (225-116). 6-3 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Rune has a compiled117-52 win-loss record in the last 7 years on clay.
Holger’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Brisbane.
Rune has an aggregate 19-10 win-loss record in 2024, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Sebastian Baez
19 - 10win/loss
27
18
LLLLLLWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-27 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-13 | 10-3 | 18-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Baez got to the 3rd round after beating Dusan Lajovic 7-63 7-66.
In the 2nd round, Sebastian had a good straight sets win against Lajovic (7-63 7-66). During the match Baez scored 91 points vs Lajovic’s 80. Baez was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
About the serving games, Baez scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve 6 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 78% of his first serves in, winning 57% (39/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (9/19) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Lajovic 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).
His best result of the season was winning the title in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Mariano Navone in the final 6-2 6-1 and in Santiago where he beat Alejandro Tabilo in the final 3-6 6-0 6-4.
Sebastian has an overall 19-10 win-loss record in 2024, 16-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 26 |
| Pts | 70-56 | 91-80 |
| Total Points | 126 | 171 |
| Winners | 31 | 39 |
| %Winners | 44% | 43% |
Both Rune and Baez played 1 match. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Rune and Baez have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Rune played 6 games less than Baez. Holger scored 31 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Argentine bagged 39 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 1 |
| 1st in | 39/67 | 69/88 |
| %1st in | 58% | 78% |
| 1st pts | 31/39 | 39/69 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 57% |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 9/19 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 47% |
Rune managed to score 1 ace . Baez also managed to score 1 ace . Rune won 79% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Baez won 57% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rune | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 6 |
| Converted | 2/4 | 6/15 |
| % Converted | 50% | 40% |
| Conceded | 6 | 13 |
| Saved | 6 | 7 |
| % Saved | 100% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 6 |
Holger broke his opponent twice with a 50% conversion rate. The Dane had a solid display on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 6 break points. Sebastian broke his opponent 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. Sebastian conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rune | |||
| R2 Nardi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 70-56 | 70-56 | |
| Total points | 126 | 126 | |
| Winners | 31 | 31 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 39/67 | 39/67 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 31/39 | 31/39 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 17/28 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/4 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 6/6 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Baez | |||
| R2 Lajovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 91-80 | 91-80 | |
| Total points | 171 | 171 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 69/88 | 69/88 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 78% | |
| 1st pts | 39/69 | 39/69 | |
| % 1st pts | 57% | 57% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 9/19 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 6/15 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 13 | |
| Saved | 7/13 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 54% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWL
LLLLLLWLLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 4-6 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Terence AtmaneAtmane (7-63 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Francesco PassaroPassaro (4-6 7-68 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Stefano NapolitanoNapolitano – Nicolas JarryJarry (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Andrey RublevRublev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-2) – H2H and prediction
