Lorenzo Musetti and Mariano Navone will face off in the final of the Cagliari Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:30 pm on CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.51
Mariano Navone -> 2.45
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Mariano Navone
There is no head to head record between Lorenzo Musetti and Mariano Navone since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Lorenzo Musetti
12 - 13win/loss
17
15
LLLWWLLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 30-15 | 6-4 | 20-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 29, Musetti reached the final after defeating Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7-64 7-64, Nuno Borges 1-6 6-1 6-2 and Daniel Elahi Galan 6-1 6-4.
In the semifinal, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Elahi Galan Riveros (6-1 6-4). During the match, Musetti scored 61 points vs Elahi Galan Riveros’s 42. Lorenzo was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Musetti couldn’t to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve once. Furthermore, Musetti put 67% of his first serves in, winning 74% (25/34) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (8/17) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Elahi Galan Riveros 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Lorenzo has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Musetti has a winning match record in the last 7 years having won 56% of his matches (186-144). 5-4 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Musetti has an aggregate106-60 match record in the last 7 years on clay.
Musetti’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Cagliari Challenger.
Musetti has a composed 12-13 win-loss record in 2024, 5-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Cagliari Challenger
The Italian has never competed in this tournament before.
Mariano Navone
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-28 | 2-7 | 27-14 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-23 | 0-1 | 40-21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-25 | 0-1 | 44-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-24 | 0-0 | 40-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 23-8 | 4-2 | 19-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 41 (career-high), Navone reached the final after beating Shintaro Mochizuki 6-0 4-6 6-3, Emilio Nava 4-6 6-1 7-64 and Luciano Darderi 6-3 7-5.
In the semifinal, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Darderi (6-3 7-5). During the match Navone scored 73 points vs Darderi’s 56. Mariano was very aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Navone scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Mariano Navone lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Navone put 75% of his first serves in, winning 65% (28/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 71% (10/14) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Darderi 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Navone has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Navone’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Tigre Challenger, Rio de Janeiro and Bucharest.
Navone has a composed 23-9 win-loss record in 2024, 23-8 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 65 | 76 |
| Pts | 240-197 | 286-238 |
| Total Points | 437 | 524 |
| Winners | 91 | 101 |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% |
Both Musetti and Navone played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti lost 1 set, while Mariano Navone surrendered 2 sets. Musetti has played 1 set(s) less than Navone (7 vs 8). Therefore, Musetti played 11 games less than Navone. Lorenzo scored 91 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Mariano made 101 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 0.3 | 1 |
| 1st in | 132/220 | 166/259 |
| %1st in | 60% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 91/132 | 101/166 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 44/88 | 51/93 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 55% |
Musetti bagged 1 ace (0.3 per match). Navone also managed to score 3 aces (1 per match). Musetti won 69% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Navone won 61% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 19 |
| Converted | 14/24 | 19/39 |
| % Converted | 58% | 49% |
| Conceded | 22 | 28 |
| Saved | 13 | 17 |
| % Saved | 59% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 11 |
The Italian broke his opponents 14 times with a 58% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 59% of the break points that he conceded. Navone broke his opponents 19 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | |||||
| R2 Manuel |
1/4 Borges |
1/2 Elahi Galan Riveros |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 7-64 | 1-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 22 | 17 | 65 | |
| pts | 89-77 | 90-78 | 61-42 | 240-197 | |
| Total points | 166 | 168 | 103 | 437 | |
| Winners | 33 | 33 | 25 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | 41% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 48/82 | 50/87 | 34/51 | 132/220 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 57% | 67% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 33/48 | 33/50 | 25/34 | 91/132 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 66% | 74% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/34 | 16/37 | 8/17 | 44/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 43% | 47% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 6/11 | 4/7 | 14/24 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 55% | 57% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 13 | 1 | 22 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 9/13 | 0/1 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 69% | 0% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Navone | |||||
| R2 Mochizuki |
1/4 Nava |
1/2 Darderi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 4-6 6-3 | 4-6 6-1 7-64 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 30 | 21 | 76 | |
| pts | 108-90 | 105-92 | 73-56 | 286-238 | |
| Total points | 198 | 197 | 129 | 524 | |
| Winners | 33 | 40 | 28 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 38% | 38% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 59/103 | 64/99 | 43/57 | 166/259 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 65% | 75% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 33/59 | 40/64 | 28/43 | 101/166 | |
| % 1st pts | 56% | 63% | 65% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/44 | 17/35 | 10/14 | 51/93 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 49% | 71% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 6 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 8/15 | 6/15 | 5/9 | 19/39 | |
| Converted % | 53% | 40% | 56% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 11 | 6 | 28 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 6/11 | 4/6 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 55% | 67% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Mariano NavoneNavone – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-0) – H2H and prediction
