Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.444
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.86

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

This will be the 10^th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka play each other. The head to head is 6-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Swiatek won 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Cancun back in 2023.

Iga Swiatek

Currently world no. 1 Swiatek got to the final after beating Xiyu Wang 6-1 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-1, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0, Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6 6-0 6-2 and Madison Keys 6-1 6-3.

In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Keys (6-1 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 60 points vs Keys’s 35. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Iga Swiatek conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 72% of her first serves in, winning 69% (25/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Keys 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 62% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (316-71). 7-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an overall118-17 record in the last 9 years on clay.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Australia where she defeated Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0.

The Pole has an overall 31-4 win-loss record in 2024, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the final after defeating Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3, Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-7⁵ 6-4, Danielle Rose Collins 4-6 6-4 6-3, Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-4 and Elena Rybakina 1-6 7-5 7-6⁵.

In the semifinal against Rybakina , Aryna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-5 7-6⁵).During the match Sabalenka scored less points (4) than Rybakina . In fact, the world no. 1 won 95 points vs Rybakina ‘s. That means that Sabalenka was more focused during the important points. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 43 winners.

Talking about serving, Sabalenka recorded 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 64% of her first serves in, winning 77% (43/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Rybakina 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.

Aryna has an overall 20-5 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2021 and 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	11	14
Tot Games	84	136
Pts	331-205	456-411
Total Points	536	867
Winners	117	203
%Winners	35%	45%

Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 1 set, while Aryna Sabalenka lost 4 sets. Swiatek has played 3 set(s) less than Sabalenka (11 vs 14). Therefore, Swiatek played 52 games less than Sabalenka. Iga scored 117 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Aryna struck 203 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Aces	3	28
Avg per match	0.6	5.6
1st in	171/255	274/422
%1st in	67%	65%
1st pts	117/171	203/274
%1st pts	68%	74%
2nd pts	53/84	77/148
%2nd pts	63%	52%

Swiatek bagged 3 aces (0.6 per match). Sabalenka fired 28 aces (5.6 per match). Swiatek won 68% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Sabalenka
Won	28	18
Converted	28/53	18/36
% Converted	53%	50%
Conceded	17	33
Saved	11	23
% Saved	65%	70%
Times Broken	6	10

The Pole broke her opponents 28 times with a 53% conversion rate. Swiatek conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded. Aryna broke her opponents 18 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Wang	R3 Cirstea	R4 Sorribes Tormo	1/4 Haddad Maia	1/2 Keys	Total
Score	6-1 6-4	6-1 6-1	6-1 6-0	4-6 6-0 6-2	6-1 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	11
Tot Games	17	14	13	24	16	84
pts	59-42	61-37	55-21	96-70	60-35	331-205
Total points	101	98	76	166	95	536
Winners	24	19	18	31	25	117
%Winners	41%	31%	33%	32%	42%	35%
SERVE
Aces	3	0	0	0	0	3
Double Faults	3	0	1	3	0	7
1st in	33/52	29/45	24/38	49/70	36/50	171/255
% 1st in	63%	64%	63%	70%	72%	67%
1st pts	24/33	19/29	18/24	31/49	25/36	117/171
% 1st pts	73%	66%	75%	63%	69%	68%
2nd pts	9/19	11/16	9/14	13/21	11/14	53/84
% 2nd pts	47%	69%	64%	62%	79%	63%
Breaks
Won	5	6	6	7	4	28
Converted	5/7	6/14	6/9	7/18	4/5	28/53
Converted %	71%	43%	67%	39%	80%	53%
Conceded	4	2	1	7	3	17
Saved	3/4	1/2	0/1	4/7	3/3	11
Saved %	75%	50%	0%	57%	100%	56%
Times Broken	1	1	1	3	0	6

Sabalenka
	R2 Linette	R3 Montgomery	R4 Collins	1/4 Andreeva	1/2 Rybakina	Total
Score	6-4 3-6 6-3	6-1 6-75 6-4	4-6 6-4 6-3	6-1 6-4	1-6 7-5 7-65
Tot Set	3	3	3	2	3	14
Tot Games	28	30	29	17	32	136
pts	90-92	109-88	97-87	65-45	95-99	456-411
Total points	182	197	184	110	194	867
Winners	41	51	41	27	43	203
%Winners	46%	47%	42%	42%	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	10	8	4	2	4	28
Double Faults	6	4	4	1	4	19
1st in	52/90	72/101	60/91	34/52	56/88	274/422
% 1st in	58%	71%	66%	65%	64%	65%
1st pts	41/52	51/72	41/60	27/34	43/56	203/274
% 1st pts	79%	71%	68%	79%	77%	74%
2nd pts	18/38	18/29	14/31	11/18	16/32	77/148
% 2nd pts	47%	62%	45%	61%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	2	4	6	3	3	18
Converted	2/6	4/8	6/9	3/5	3/8	18/36
Converted %	33%	50%	67%	60%	38%	50%
Conceded	9	3	11	0	10	33
Saved	8/9	2/3	7/11	0/0	6/10	23
Saved %	89%	67%	64%	–	60%	56%
Times Broken	1	1	4	0	4	10

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – James WardWard (3-6 6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (6-3) – H2H and prediction