Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 10th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.444
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.86
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 10th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka play each other. The head to head is 6-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Swiatek won 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Cancun back in 2023.
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 61-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 4-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek got to the final after beating Xiyu Wang 6-1 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-1, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0, Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6 6-0 6-2 and Madison Keys 6-1 6-3.
In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Keys (6-1 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 60 points vs Keys’s 35. The Pole was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Iga Swiatek conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 72% of her first serves in, winning 69% (25/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Keys 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 62% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 9 years having won 82% of her matches (316-71). 7-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an overall118-17 record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Australia where she defeated Angelique Kerber in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Doha where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 7-6(8) 6-2 and in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-0.
The Pole has an overall 31-4 win-loss record in 2024, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the final after defeating Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3, Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-75 6-4, Danielle Rose Collins 4-6 6-4 6-3, Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-4 and Elena Rybakina 1-6 7-5 7-65.
In the semifinal against Rybakina , Aryna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-5 7-65).During the match Sabalenka scored less points (4) than Rybakina . In fact, the world no. 1 won 95 points vs Rybakina ‘s. That means that Sabalenka was more focused during the important points. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Talking about serving, Sabalenka recorded 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 64% of her first serves in, winning 77% (43/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Rybakina 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has an overall 20-5 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2021 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 84 | 136 |
| Pts | 331-205 | 456-411 |
| Total Points | 536 | 867 |
| Winners | 117 | 203 |
| %Winners | 35% | 45% |
Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 1 set, while Aryna Sabalenka lost 4 sets. Swiatek has played 3 set(s) less than Sabalenka (11 vs 14). Therefore, Swiatek played 52 games less than Sabalenka. Iga scored 117 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Aryna struck 203 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 28 |
| Avg per match | 0.6 | 5.6 |
| 1st in | 171/255 | 274/422 |
| %1st in | 67% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 117/171 | 203/274 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 53/84 | 77/148 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 52% |
Swiatek bagged 3 aces (0.6 per match). Sabalenka fired 28 aces (5.6 per match). Swiatek won 68% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 28 | 18 |
| Converted | 28/53 | 18/36 |
| % Converted | 53% | 50% |
| Conceded | 17 | 33 |
| Saved | 11 | 23 |
| % Saved | 65% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 10 |
The Pole broke her opponents 28 times with a 53% conversion rate. Swiatek conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded. Aryna broke her opponents 18 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R2 Wang |
R3 Cirstea |
R4 Sorribes Tormo |
1/4 Haddad Maia |
1/2 Keys |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-1 6-0 | 4-6 6-0 6-2 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 14 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 84 | |
| pts | 59-42 | 61-37 | 55-21 | 96-70 | 60-35 | 331-205 | |
| Total points | 101 | 98 | 76 | 166 | 95 | 536 | |
| Winners | 24 | 19 | 18 | 31 | 25 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 42% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 33/52 | 29/45 | 24/38 | 49/70 | 36/50 | 171/255 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 64% | 63% | 70% | 72% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 24/33 | 19/29 | 18/24 | 31/49 | 25/36 | 117/171 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 66% | 75% | 63% | 69% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 11/16 | 9/14 | 13/21 | 11/14 | 53/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 69% | 64% | 62% | 79% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 28 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 6/14 | 6/9 | 7/18 | 4/5 | 28/53 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 43% | 67% | 39% | 80% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 3/3 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 0% | 57% | 100% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R2 Linette |
R3 Montgomery |
R4 Collins |
1/4 Andreeva |
1/2 Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | 6-1 6-75 6-4 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | 1-6 7-5 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 30 | 29 | 17 | 32 | 136 | |
| pts | 90-92 | 109-88 | 97-87 | 65-45 | 95-99 | 456-411 | |
| Total points | 182 | 197 | 184 | 110 | 194 | 867 | |
| Winners | 41 | 51 | 41 | 27 | 43 | 203 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% | 42% | 42% | 45% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 28 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 52/90 | 72/101 | 60/91 | 34/52 | 56/88 | 274/422 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 71% | 66% | 65% | 64% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 41/52 | 51/72 | 41/60 | 27/34 | 43/56 | 203/274 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 71% | 68% | 79% | 77% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 18/29 | 14/31 | 11/18 | 16/32 | 77/148 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 62% | 45% | 61% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 6/9 | 3/5 | 3/8 | 18/36 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 67% | 60% | 38% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 33 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 2/3 | 7/11 | 0/0 | 6/10 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 67% | 64% | – | 60% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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