Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will play each other in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 9:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.85
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.96
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 9th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina square off. The head to head is 5-3 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Rybakina won 6-0 6-3 in the final in Brisbane back in January 2024.
Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka – Brisbane 07-January-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-6 | 14-4 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka reached the semifinal after defeating Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3, Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-75 6-4, Danielle Rose Collins 4-6 6-4 6-3 and Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-4.
In the quarter, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Andreeva (6-1 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 65 points vs Andreeva’s 45. Aryna was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka fired 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka was very efficient on serve to win 79% (27/34) of her 1st serve and 61% (11/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna broke Andreeva 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has surrendered 3 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (337-159). 5-1 on clay in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a composed67-36 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 19-5 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-5 | 22-4 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Elena got to the semifinal after beating Lucia Bronzetti 6-4 6-3, Mayar Sherif 6-1 6-4, Sara Bejlek 6-1 6-3 and Yulia Putintseva 4-6 7-64 7-5.
In the quarter against Putintseva, The Kazakhstani recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-64 7-5).During the match Rybakina scored less points (1) than Putintseva. In fact, the world no. 2 won 113 points vs Putintseva’s. That means that Rybakina was more focused during the important points. Rybakina was very aggressive to blast 50 winners.
About the serving games, Rybakina scored 6 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 61% of her first serves in, winning 70% (50/71) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (22/46) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Putintseva 3 times after converting 25% of her break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Brisbane where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-0 6-3 and in Abu Dhabi where she beat Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-1 6-4 and in Stuttgart where she overcame Marta Kostyuk in the final 6-2 6-2.
The Kazakhstani has an aggregate 30-4 win-loss record in 2024, 8-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 104 | 87 |
| Pts | 361-312 | 311-264 |
| Total Points | 673 | 575 |
| Winners | 160 | 123 |
| %Winners | 44% | 40% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 3 sets, while Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set. Sabalenka has played 2 sets more than Rybakina (11 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 17 games more than Rybakina. Aryna scored 160 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Elena recorded 123 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 218/334 | 175/296 |
| %1st in | 65% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 160/218 | 123/175 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 61/116 | 62/121 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 51% |
Sabalenka scored 24 aces (6 per match). Rybakina bagged 13 aces (3.3 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 16 |
| Converted | 15/28 | 16/40 |
| % Converted | 54% | 40% |
| Conceded | 23 | 33 |
| Saved | 17 | 26 |
| % Saved | 74% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 7 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 15 times with a 54% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve 6 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 16 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R2 Linette |
R3 Montgomery |
R4 Collins |
1/4 Andreeva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | 6-1 6-75 6-4 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 30 | 29 | 17 | 104 | |
| pts | 90-92 | 109-88 | 97-87 | 65-45 | 361-312 | |
| Total points | 182 | 197 | 184 | 110 | 673 | |
| Winners | 41 | 51 | 41 | 27 | 160 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% | 42% | 42% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 52/90 | 72/101 | 60/91 | 34/52 | 218/334 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 71% | 66% | 65% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 41/52 | 51/72 | 41/60 | 27/34 | 160/218 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 71% | 68% | 79% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 18/29 | 14/31 | 11/18 | 61/116 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 62% | 45% | 61% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 6/9 | 3/5 | 15/28 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 67% | 60% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 23 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 2/3 | 7/11 | 0/0 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 67% | 64% | – | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||
| R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Sherif |
R4 Bejlek |
1/4 Putintseva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | 6-1 6-3 | 4-6 7-64 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | 16 | 35 | 87 | |
| pts | 59-46 | 70-52 | 69-52 | 113-114 | 311-264 | |
| Total points | 105 | 122 | 121 | 227 | 575 | |
| Winners | 23 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 123 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 31% | 41% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 32/57 | 26/53 | 46/69 | 71/117 | 175/296 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 49% | 67% | 61% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 23/32 | 22/26 | 28/46 | 50/71 | 123/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 85% | 61% | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/25 | 16/27 | 11/23 | 22/46 | 62/121 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 59% | 48% | 48% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 3/13 | 6/10 | 3/12 | 16/40 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 23% | 60% | 25% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 33 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3/3 | 13/15 | 7/10 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 100% | 87% | 70% | 79% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWLWWWW
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