Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva will play each other in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.41
Mirra Andreeva -> 2.92
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-1 in the 4th round in Madrid back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva – Madrid 01-May-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the quarter after defeating Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3, Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-75 6-4 and Danielle Rose Collins 4-6 6-4 6-3.
In the 4th round against Collins, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 97 points vs Collins’s 87. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka made 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 66% of her first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (14/31) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Collins 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has conceded 3 set in this event to conquer 53% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (336-159). 4-1 on clay in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate66-36 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has an overall 18-5 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Mirra Andreeva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 34-16 | 18-9 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-9 | 7-4 | 23-4 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-9 | 21-5 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 43, Andreeva got to the quarter after defeating Taylor Townsend 4-6 6-1 7-5, Linda Noskova 4-6 6-3 6-3, Marketa Vondrousova 7-5 6-1 and Jasmine Paolini 7-62 6-4.
In the 4th round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Paolini (7-62 6-4). During the match Andreeva scored 78 points vs Paolini’s 73. The Russian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.
About the serving games, Andreeva made 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Mirra Andreeva lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Andreeva put 66% of her first serves in, winning 57% (32/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (12/29) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Paolini 6 times after converting 75% of her break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Andreeva has a composed 12-5 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 87 | 99 |
| Pts | 296-267 | 330-283 |
| Total Points | 563 | 613 |
| Winners | 133 | 133 |
| %Winners | 45% | 40% |
Sabalenka played 3 matches while Andreeva competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 3 sets, while Mirra Andreeva surrendered 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Andreeva (9 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 12 games less than Andreeva. The Belarussian scored 133 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Andreeva scored 133 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 7.3 | 3 |
| 1st in | 184/282 | 208/313 |
| %1st in | 65% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 133/184 | 133/208 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 64% |
| 2nd pts | 50/98 | 46/105 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 44% |
Sabalenka made 22 aces (7.3 per match). Andreeva blasted 12 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 64% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 44% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 26 |
| Converted | 12/23 | 26/42 |
| % Converted | 52% | 62% |
| Conceded | 23 | 32 |
| Saved | 17 | 15 |
| % Saved | 74% | 47% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 17 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 12 times with a 52% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded. Mirra broke her opponents 26 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 17 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Linette |
R3 Montgomery |
R4 Collins |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | 6-1 6-75 6-4 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 30 | 29 | 87 | |
| pts | 90-92 | 109-88 | 97-87 | 296-267 | |
| Total points | 182 | 197 | 184 | 563 | |
| Winners | 41 | 51 | 41 | 133 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% | 42% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 4 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 52/90 | 72/101 | 60/91 | 184/282 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 71% | 66% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 41/52 | 51/72 | 41/60 | 133/184 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 71% | 68% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 18/29 | 14/31 | 50/98 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 62% | 45% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 6/9 | 12/23 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 67% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 | 11 | 23 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 2/3 | 7/11 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 67% | 64% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Andreeva | ||||||
| R1 Townsend |
R2 Noskova |
R3 Vondrousova |
R4 Paolini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-1 7-5 | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | 7-5 6-1 | 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 28 | 19 | 23 | 99 | |
| pts | 95-86 | 93-81 | 64-43 | 78-73 | 330-283 | |
| Total points | 181 | 174 | 107 | 151 | 613 | |
| Winners | 44 | 34 | 23 | 32 | 133 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 37% | 36% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 65/96 | 53/87 | 34/45 | 56/85 | 208/313 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 61% | 76% | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 44/65 | 34/53 | 23/34 | 32/56 | 133/208 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 64% | 68% | 57% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/31 | 15/34 | 5/11 | 12/29 | 46/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 44% | 45% | 41% | 44% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 7/11 | 7/12 | 6/8 | 26/42 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 64% | 58% | 75% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32 | |
| Saved | 5/9 | 5/10 | 2/5 | 3/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 50% | 40% | 38% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LWWWWLWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (4-6 6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Su-Wei Hsieh/Elise MertensHsieh/Elise Mertens – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko (6-70 6-2 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Denis YevseyevYevseyev (6-3 3-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Zihao XiaXia – Ze ZhangZhang (5-4 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Zhizhen ZhangZhang – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- James WardWard – Duckhee LeeLee (3-6 7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Madison KeysKeys – Ons JabeurJabeur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Elena RybakinaRybakina (2-0) – H2H and prediction
