Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.28
Alexander Bublik -> 3.7
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Bublik
This will be the 7th time that Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik face off. The head to head is 6-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Medvedev won 6-4 6-2 in the 2nd round in Dubai back in 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik – Dubai 01-March-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-7 | 18-4 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, the Russian reached the 4th round after beating Matteo Arnaldi 2-6 6-4 6-4 and Sebastian Korda 5-7 7-64 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Korda, Medvedev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-64 6-3). During the match, Medvedev scored 114 points vs Korda’s 103. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 59 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev fired 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was extremely effective on serve to win 77% (59/77) of his 1st serve and 51% (20/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Medvedev broke Korda twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a marvellous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (485-192). 3-1 on clay in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an aggregate 60-40 record in the last years on clay.
Medvedev’s best result of the year was getting to the final at the Australian Open and Indian Wells.
Daniil has a composed 21-5 win-loss record in 2024, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Alexander Bublik
16 - 8win/loss
17
17
LLWWLLLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-10 | 9-6 | 2-3 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-17 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 8-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18 (career-high), Alexander reached the 4th round after beating Roberto Carballes Baena 1-6 6-2 6-2 and Ben Shelton 3-6 7-62 6-4.
In the 3rd round against Shelton, The Kazakhstani recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-62 6-4).During the match Bublik scored less points (1) than Shelton. In fact, the world no. 4 won 97 points vs Shelton’s. That means that Bublik was more focused during the important points. Bublik was very aggressive to blast 47 winners.
About the serving games, Bublik made 8 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Alexander Bublik was quite efficient on serve to win 80% (47/59) of his 1st serve and 58% (19/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Bublik broke Shelton once after converting 20% of his break points (1/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Bublik has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Montpellier where he defeated Borna Coric in the final 5-7 6-2 6-3.
Alexander has a composed 16-8 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 62 | 55 |
| Pts | 205-182 | 170-162 |
| Total Points | 387 | 332 |
| Winners | 102 | 81 |
| %Winners | 50% | 48% |
Both Medvedev and Bublik played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 2 sets, while Alexander Bublik dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Bublik have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Medvedev played 7 games more than Bublik. Daniil scored 102 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Bublik made 81 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 7 |
| 1st in | 129/197 | 105/165 |
| %1st in | 65% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 102/129 | 81/105 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 35/68 | 31/60 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 52% |
Medvedev recorded 10 aces (5 per match). Bublik scored 14 aces (7 per match). Medvedev won 79% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 5 |
| Converted | 4/12 | 5/12 |
| % Converted | 33% | 42% |
| Conceded | 16 | 13 |
| Saved | 12 | 9 |
| % Saved | 75% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
Daniil broke his opponents 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. Medvedev lost his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Bublik broke his opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | ||||
| R2 Arnaldi |
R3 Korda |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-4 6-4 | 5-7 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 34 | 62 | |
| pts | 91-79 | 114-103 | 205-182 | |
| Total points | 170 | 217 | 387 | |
| Winners | 43 | 59 | 102 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 52% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 52/81 | 77/116 | 129/197 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 66% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 43/52 | 59/77 | 102/129 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 77% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/29 | 20/39 | 35/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 51% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 2/5 | 4/12 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 40% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 11 | 16 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 9/11 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 82% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Bublik | ||||
| R2 Carballes Baena |
R3 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-2 6-2 | 3-6 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 32 | 55 | |
| pts | 73-64 | 97-98 | 170-162 | |
| Total points | 137 | 195 | 332 | |
| Winners | 34 | 47 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 8 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 46/73 | 59/92 | 105/165 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 34/46 | 47/59 | 81/105 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 80% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/27 | 19/33 | 31/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 58% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 1/5 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 20% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 7/8 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 88% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWWLWL
LLWWLLLWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Rafael NadalNadal – Pedro CachinCachin (6-1 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (6-4 7-67) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Ben SheltonShelton (3-6 7-62 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Sebastian KordaKorda (5-7 7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Jakub MensikMensik (6-1 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Holger RuneRune (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tommy PaulPaul (6-77 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (7-610 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Jakub MensikMensik (6-1 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Sebastian KordaKorda (5-7 7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Ben SheltonShelton (3-6 7-6(2) 6-4) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Pedro CachinCachin (6-1 6-7(5) 6-3) – See score progression
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (6-4 7-6(7)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexander BublikBublik (6-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Casper RuudRuud (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Pavel KotovKotov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
