Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins will face off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 10:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.82
Danielle Rose Collins -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Danielle Rose Collins
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Rose Collins face off. The head to head is 4-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the 4th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2022.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Danielle Rose Collins – U.S. Open 05-September-2022
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-7 | 14-4 | 11-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian got to the 4th round after beating Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-75 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Aryna defeated Montgomery (6-1 6-75 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 109 points vs Montgomery’s 88. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 8 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was very effective on serve to win 71% (51/72) of her 1st serve and 62% (18/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sabalenka broke Montgomery 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has conceded 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (335-159). 3-1 on clay in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate65-36 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she overcame Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 17-5 win-loss record in 2024, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Danielle Rose Collins
28 - 8win/loss
12
7
LWWWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32-9 | 20-7 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-18 | 19-15 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-12 | 17-6 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-15 | 23-10 | 11-3 | 5-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 10-6 | 6-5 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Collins reached the 4th round after defeating Olga Danilovic 4-6 6-4 7-68 and Jaqueline Cristian 3-6 6-4 6-1.
In the 3rd round against Cristian, Collins recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-1). During the match Collins scored 81 points vs Cristian’s 76. Danielle was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about serving, Collins blasted 8 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Danielle Rose Collins lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Collins put 64% of her first serves in, winning 76% (38/50) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (14/28) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Cristian 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Danielle has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Miami where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Charleston where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 6-1.
The American has an overall 28-7 win-loss record in 2024, 8-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2019 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 58 | 59 |
| Pts | 199-180 | 189-184 |
| Total Points | 379 | 373 |
| Winners | 92 | 95 |
| %Winners | 46% | 50% |
Both Sabalenka and Collins played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 2 sets, while Danielle Rose Collins surrendered 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Collins have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Sabalenka played 1 game less than Collins. Aryna scored 92 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The American fired 95 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 18 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 8.5 |
| 1st in | 124/191 | 121/194 |
| %1st in | 65% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 92/124 | 95/121 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 36/67 | 27/73 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 37% |
Sabalenka blasted 18 aces (9 per match). Collins bagged 17 aces (8.5 per match). Sabalenka won 74% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Collins won 79% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 37% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 7 |
| Converted | 6/14 | 7/15 |
| % Converted | 43% | 47% |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 |
| Saved | 10 | 7 |
| % Saved | 83% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve twice and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. Collins broke her opponents 7 times with a 47% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R2 Linette |
R3 Montgomery |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | 6-1 6-75 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 30 | 58 | |
| pts | 90-92 | 109-88 | 199-180 | |
| Total points | 182 | 197 | 379 | |
| Winners | 41 | 51 | 92 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 52/90 | 72/101 | 124/191 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 71% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 41/52 | 51/72 | 92/124 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 71% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 18/29 | 36/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 62% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 | 12 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 2/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 67% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Collins | ||||
| R2 Danilovic |
R3 Cristian |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 7-68 | 3-6 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 26 | 59 | |
| pts | 108-108 | 81-76 | 189-184 | |
| Total points | 216 | 157 | 373 | |
| Winners | 57 | 38 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 47% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 8 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 10 | 3 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 71/116 | 50/78 | 121/194 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 64% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 57/71 | 38/50 | 95/121 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 76% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/45 | 14/28 | 27/73 | |
| % 2nd pts | 29% | 50% | 37% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/6 | 7/15 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 1/2 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 50% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWWW
LWWWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Robin MontgomeryMontgomery (6-1 6-75 6-4) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Jaqueline CristianCristian (3-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mayar SherifSherif (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (7-65 7-5) – See score progression
- Sara BejlekBejlek – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Emma NavarroNavarro (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-60 6-3) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Sloane StephensStephens (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (7-5 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Madison KeysKeys (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-4) – H2H and prediction
