Cori Gauff and Madison Keys will square off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 4:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cori Gauff who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Cori Gauff is the pick to win this match.
Cori Gauff -> 1.29
Madison Keys -> 3.62
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Prediction and head to head Cori Gauff vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 5th time that Cori Gauff and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Gauff and Keys (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Keys won 6-3 6-3 in the semifinal in Eastbourne back in 2023.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Cori Gauff – Eastbourne 30-June-2023
Cori Gauff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-18 | 31-10 | 14-5 | 4-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-16 | 40-9 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 23-16 | 10-4 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-16 | 16-10 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Gauff got to the 4th round after beating Arantxa Rus 6-0 6-0 and Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-1.
In the 3rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Yastremska (6-4 6-1). During the match, Gauff scored 63 points vs Yastremska’s 41. Gauff was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Gauff recorded 3 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 51% of her first serves in, winning 82% (23/28) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (10/27) on the 2nd serve. Gauff broke Yastremska 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cori hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to conquer 66% of the points she played.
Gauff has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 69% of her matches (196-88). 3-1 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Gauff has a composed50-22 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Auckland where she defeated Elina Svitolina in the final 6-7(4) 6-3 6-3.
Cori has an overall 21-6 win-loss record in 2024, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, the American reached the 4th round after defeating Irina-Camelia Begu 7-63 7-66 and Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Samsonova (6-2 6-3). During the match Keys scored 66 points vs Samsonova’s 44. Madison was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Keys bagged 7 aces and she was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Madison Keys was pretty efficient on serve to win 78% (29/37) of her 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Samsonova 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Keys has an overall 5-3 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 29 | 43 |
| Pts | 114-59 | 159-133 |
| Total Points | 173 | 292 |
| Winners | 40 | 74 |
| %Winners | 35% | 47% |
Both Gauff and Keys played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Gauff and Keys have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Gauff played 14 games less than Keys. The American scored 40 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The American bagged 74 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 5 |
| 1st in | 50/92 | 104/151 |
| %1st in | 54% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 40/50 | 74/104 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 20/42 | 22/47 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 47% |
Gauff fired 4 aces (2 per match). Keys made 10 aces (5 per match). Gauff won 80% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 7 |
| Converted | 12/17 | 7/13 |
| % Converted | 71% | 54% |
| Conceded | 10 | 17 |
| Saved | 7 | 14 |
| % Saved | 70% | 82% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 |
Gauff broke her opponents 12 times with a 71% conversion rate. Cori conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded.
| Gauff | ||||
| R2 Rus |
R3 Yastremska |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-0 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 12 | 17 | 29 | |
| pts | 51-18 | 63-41 | 114-59 | |
| Total points | 69 | 104 | 173 | |
| Winners | 17 | 23 | 40 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 37% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 8 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 22/37 | 28/55 | 50/92 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 51% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 17/22 | 23/28 | 40/50 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 82% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/15 | 10/27 | 20/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 37% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 12 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 6/10 | 12/17 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 60% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 3/6 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Begu |
R3 Samsonova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 7-66 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 17 | 43 | |
| pts | 93-89 | 66-44 | 159-133 | |
| Total points | 182 | 110 | 292 | |
| Winners | 45 | 29 | 74 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 44% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 67/98 | 37/53 | 104/151 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 70% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 45/67 | 29/37 | 74/104 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 78% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/31 | 9/16 | 22/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 56% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/6 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 67% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 4 | 17 | |
| Saved | 10/13 | 4/4 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 77% | 100% | 89% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWW
WWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (7-65 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mayar SherifSherif (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Sara BejlekBejlek – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Jaqueline CristianCristian (3-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-60 6-3) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Emma NavarroNavarro (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (7-5 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Sloane StephensStephens (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (7-6(5) 7-5) – See score progression
- Sara BejlekBejlek – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mayar SherifSherif (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Jaqueline CristianCristian (3-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Madison KeysKeys (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
