Jasmine Paolini and Caroline Garcia will square off in the 3^rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 6:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.74
Caroline Garcia -> 2.1

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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Caroline Garcia

This will be the 8^th time that Jasmine Paolini and Caroline Garcia square off. The head to head is 5-2 for Garcia (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Garcia won 6-4 5-7 6-4 in the R in Australia back in January 2024.

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 13 (career-high), Jasmine reached the 3^rd round after beating Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 6-0 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Jimenez Kasintseva (6-0 6-1). During the match, Paolini scored 61 points vs Jimenez Kasintseva’s 32. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paolini was unable to score even 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 85% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (3/6) on the 2nd serve. Jasmine broke Jimenez Kasintseva 7 times after converting 50% of her break points (7/14).

Paolini has winning record in the last 10 years having won 56% of her matches (300-233). 3-1 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has a composed 154-98 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Dubai where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.

Jasmine has an overall 15-8 win-loss record in 2024, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Caroline Garcia

Ranked no. 24, Caroline reached the 3^rd round after beating Xinyu Wang 6-1 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Wang (6-1 6-4). During the match Garcia scored 69 points vs Wang’s 52. Caroline was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Garcia blasted 8 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Caroline Garcia was exceptionally effective on serve to win 74% (20/27) of her 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. The French player broke Wang 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).

The French player best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Australia and Rouen.

Garcia has a composed 13-10 win-loss record in 2024, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paolini	Garcia
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	13	17
Pts	61-32	69-52
Total Points	93	121
Winners	24	20
%Winners	39%	29%

Both Paolini and Garcia played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paolini and Garcia have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Paolini played 4 games less than Garcia. Paolini scored 24 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Garcia struck 20 winners (29%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paolini	Garcia
Aces	0	8
Avg per match	0	8
1st in	34/40	27/60
%1st in	85%	45%
1st pts	24/34	20/27
%1st pts	71%	74%
2nd pts	3/6	17/33
%2nd pts	50%	52%

Paolini didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Garcia recorded 8 aces . Paolini won 71% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Garcia won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paolini	Garcia
Won	7	5
Converted	7/14	5/10
% Converted	50%	50%
Conceded	4	8
Saved	3	6
% Saved	75%	75%
Times Broken	1	2

The Italian broke her opponent 7 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Italian dropped her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Garcia broke her opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. The French player conceded her serve twice and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.

Paolini
	R2 Jimenez	Total
Score	6-0 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	13	13
pts	61-32	61-32
Total points	93	93
Winners	24	24
%Winners	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	0	0
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	34/40	34/40
% 1st in	85%	85%
1st pts	24/34	24/34
% 1st pts	71%	71%
2nd pts	3/6	3/6
% 2nd pts	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	7	7
Converted	7/14	7/14
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	4	4
Saved	3/4	3
Saved %	75%	75%
Times Broken	1	1

Garcia
	R2 Wang	Total
Score	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	69-52	69-52
Total points	121	121
Winners	20	20
%Winners	29%	29%
SERVE
Aces	8	8
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	27/60	27/60
% 1st in	45%	45%
1st pts	20/27	20/27
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	17/33	17/33
% 2nd pts	52%	52%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/10	5/10
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	6/8	6
Saved %	75%	75%
Times Broken	2	2

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-6⁰ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Maria SakkariSakkari – Sloane StephensStephens (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (7-5 2-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Emma NavarroNavarro (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Mayar SherifSherif – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Caroline GarciaGarcia – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (5-2) – H2H and prediction
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction