Alex De Minaur and Rafael Nadal will face off in the 2nd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.727
Alex De Minaur -> 2.12
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Rafael Nadal
This will be the 6th time that Alex De Minaur and Rafael Nadal fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), but De Minaur has a winning record of 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, De Minaur won 7-5 6-1 in the 2nd round in Barcelona back in April 2024.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal – Barcelona 17-April-2024
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-9 | 15-5 | 4-3 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 0-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, De Minaur will start his run in Madrid after he played his last match in Barcelona where he lost 7-5 6-2 to Fils in the 3rd round on the 18th of April.
Alex has an overall 23-8 win-loss record in 2024, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
His best result of the season was winning the title in Acapulco where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 6-4 6-4.
Talking about his overall career, Alex has an overall 341-195 record. He has a positive 59-48 record on clay.
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6-3 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 512, Rafael reached the 2nd round after defeating Darwin Blanch 6-1 6-0.
In the 1st round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Blanch (6-1 6-0). During the match Nadal scored 53 points vs Blanch’s 25. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Nadal blasted 2 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Rafael Nadal was extremely efficient on serve to win 79% (19/24) of his 1st serve and 73% (11/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Nadal broke Blanch 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Rafael has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, he won this tournament 5 times in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2017. See his history.
Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Juncheng ShangShang (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Arthur FilsFils (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Andrey RublevRublev – Facundo BagnisBagnis (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-63 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Tommy PaulPaul – Lukas KleinKlein (6-75 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-2 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Hubert HurkaczHubert – Jack DraperJack (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-4) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pedro CachinCachin – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander BublikBublik – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Borna CoricCoric – Alexander ZverevZverev (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Jack DraperDraper (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Nicolas JarryJarry – Flavio CobolliCobolli (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Max PurcellPurcell – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Taro DanielDaniel (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Casper RuudRuud (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Rafael NadalNadal (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Jordan ThompsonThompson (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas MachacMachac – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mariano NavoneNavone – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction