Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will square off in the 4th round of the Miami Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.132
Lorenzo Musetti -> 5.95
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 5th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 6-2 6-2 in the 2nd round in Beijing back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti – Beijing 01-October-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-4 | 13-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard reached the 4th round after defeating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-1 and Gael Monfils 6-2 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Monfils (6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 57 points vs Monfils’s 37. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz scored just 1 ace for the entire match and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 81% of his first serves in, winning 76% (29/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (4/9) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Monfils 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 60% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 7 years having won 79% of his matches (247-66). 12-1 on hard in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled87-21 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(5) 6-1.
Carlos has a composed 14-3 win-loss record in 2024, 12-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9-13 | 6-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 30-15 | 6-4 | 20-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, the Italian got to the 4th round after defeating Roman Safiullin 7-5 6-1 and Ben Shelton 6-4 7-65.
In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-4 7-65). During the match Musetti scored 81 points vs Shelton’s 65. Musetti was very aggressive to blast 33 winners.
About the serving games, Musetti scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Lorenzo Musetti was pretty effective on serve to win 83% (33/40) of his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Lorenzo broke Shelton twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Musetti hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Lorenzo has an overall 7-8 win-loss record in 2024, 6-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 42 |
| Pts | 117-78 | 150-120 |
| Total Points | 195 | 270 |
| Winners | 56 | 68 |
| %Winners | 48% | 45% |
Both Alcaraz and Musetti played 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Musetti have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Alcaraz played 9 games less than Musetti. Alcaraz scored 56 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo recorded 68 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 3 |
| 1st in | 72/95 | 85/130 |
| %1st in | 76% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 56/72 | 68/85 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 9/23 | 23/45 |
| %2nd pts | 39% | 51% |
Alcaraz fired 4 aces (2 per match). Musetti made 6 aces (3 per match). Alcaraz won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 7 |
| Converted | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| % Converted | 60% | 47% |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 |
| Saved | 4 | 4 |
| % Saved | 80% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 |
Carlos broke his opponents 9 times with a 60% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Musetti broke his opponents 7 times with a 47% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| R2 Carballes Baena |
R3 Monfils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 33 | |
| pts | 60-41 | 57-37 | 117-78 | |
| Total points | 101 | 94 | 195 | |
| Winners | 27 | 29 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 51% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 34/48 | 38/47 | 72/95 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 81% | 76% | |
| 1st pts | 27/34 | 29/38 | 56/72 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 76% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/14 | 4/9 | 9/23 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 44% | 39% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/6 | 9/15 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 67% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Musetti | ||||
| R2 Safiullin |
R3 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 23 | 42 | |
| pts | 69-55 | 81-65 | 150-120 | |
| Total points | 124 | 146 | 270 | |
| Winners | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 41% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 45/67 | 40/63 | 85/130 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 63% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 35/45 | 33/40 | 68/85 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 83% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/22 | 16/23 | 23/45 | |
| % 2nd pts | 32% | 70% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 2/8 | 7/15 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 25% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 0/1 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 0% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWWWWWWWW
LLLWWLLWWL Tennis Scores in Miami
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Christopher EubanksEubanks (7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (6-1 5-7 7-65) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (7-63 6-4) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Sebastian KordaKorda (7-65 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Ben SheltonShelton (6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Cameron NorrieNorrie (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Nicolas JarryJarry – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (6-71 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (5-7 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-3 7-67) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Andy MurrayMurray (5-7 7-5 7-65) – See score progression
- Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Ugo HumbertHumbert (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Martin DammDamm (7-65 7-65) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Ben SheltonShelton (6-4 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Jannik SinnerSinner (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Nicolas JarryJarry (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas MachacMachac – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-1) – H2H and prediction
