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Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.35
Tommy Paul -> 3.22
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 3rd time that Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 6-2 6-1 in the 1st round in Beijing back in 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul – Beijing 29-September-2023
Daniil Medvedev
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Daniil reached the semifinal after defeating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-3, Sebastian Korda 6-4 5-7 6-3, Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4 and Holger Rune 7-5 6-4.
In the quarter, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Rune (7-5 6-4). During the match, Medvedev scored 86 points vs Rune’s 71. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev struck 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 60% of his first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 62% (18/29) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Rune 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has lost 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a tremendous match record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (477-189). 13-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has a composed 231-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Medvedev’s best result of the season was reaching the final at the Australian Open .
Medvedev has an overall 13-2 win-loss record in 2024, 13-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Tommy Paul
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Tommy got to the semifinal after defeating Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-2, Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-4, Luca Nardi 6-4 6-3 and Casper Ruud 6-2 1-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Paul defeated Ruud (6-2 1-6 6-3). During the match Paul scored 92 points vs Ruud’s 88. Tommy was quite aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Paul scored 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 4 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 55% of his first serves in, winning 72% (34/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (15/39) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Ruud 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tommy has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3.
Paul has an aggregate 14-4 win-loss record in 2024, 10-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Medvedev | Paul |
---|---|---|
Match played | 4 | 4 |
Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
Tot Games | 90 | 79 |
Pts | 315-253 | 287-240 |
Total Points | 568 | 527 |
Winners | 110 | 108 |
%Winners | 35% | 38% |
Both Medvedev and Paul played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 1 set, while Tommy Paul conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Paul have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Medvedev played 11 games more than Paul. The Russian scored 110 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 108 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Medvedev | Paul |
---|---|---|
Aces | 12 | 13 |
Avg per match | 3 | 3.3 |
1st in | 147/259 | 139/234 |
%1st in | 57% | 59% |
1st pts | 110/147 | 108/139 |
%1st pts | 75% | 78% |
2nd pts | 61/112 | 46/95 |
%2nd pts | 54% | 48% |
Medvedev made 12 aces (3 per match). Paul managed to score 13 aces (3.3 per match). Medvedev won 75% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Medvedev | Paul |
---|---|---|
Won | 20 | 16 |
Converted | 20/45 | 16/38 |
% Converted | 44% | 42% |
Conceded | 21 | 14 |
Saved | 10 | 8 |
% Saved | 48% | 57% |
Times Broken | 11 | 6 |
Daniil broke his opponents 20 times with a 44% conversion rate. Medvedev surrendered his serve 11 times and he saved 48% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
Medvedev | ||||||
R2 Carballes Baena |
R3 Korda |
R4 Dimitrov |
1/4 Rune |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
Tot Games | 17 | 31 | 20 | 22 | 90 | |
pts | 57-37 | 110-98 | 62-47 | 86-71 | 315-253 | |
Total points | 94 | 208 | 109 | 157 | 568 | |
Winners | 23 | 31 | 26 | 30 | 110 | |
%Winners | 40% | 28% | 42% | 35% | 35% | |
SERVE | ||||||
Aces | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | |
Double Faults | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
1st in | 28/48 | 44/87 | 31/51 | 44/73 | 147/259 | |
% 1st in | 58% | 51% | 61% | 60% | 57% | |
1st pts | 23/28 | 31/44 | 26/31 | 30/44 | 110/147 | |
% 1st pts | 82% | 70% | 84% | 68% | 75% | |
2nd pts | 12/20 | 18/43 | 13/20 | 18/29 | 61/112 | |
% 2nd pts | 60% | 42% | 65% | 62% | 54% | |
Breaks | ||||||
Won | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 20 | |
Converted | 4/7 | 9/22 | 3/6 | 4/10 | 20/45 | |
Converted % | 57% | 41% | 50% | 40% | 44% | |
Conceded | 2 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 21 | |
Saved | 1/2 | 2/9 | 1/2 | 6/8 | 10 | |
Saved % | 50% | 22% | 50% | 75% | 49% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
Paul | |||||||
R2 Michelsen |
R3 Humbert |
R4 Nardi |
R4 Nardi |
1/4 Ruud |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 1-6 6-3 | |||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 16 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 24 | 79 | |
pts | 67-47 | 64-51 | 64-54 | 54-64 | 92-88 | 341-304 | |
Total points | 114 | 115 | 118 | 118 | 180 | 645 | |
Winners | 19 | 30 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 137 | |
%Winners | 28% | 47% | 39% | 54% | 37% | 40% | |
SERVE | |||||||
Aces | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | |
Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
1st in | 23/41 | 37/56 | 32/51 | 40/67 | 47/86 | 179/301 | |
% 1st in | 56% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 55% | 59% | |
1st pts | 19/23 | 30/37 | 25/32 | 29/40 | 34/47 | 137/179 | |
% 1st pts | 83% | 81% | 78% | 73% | 72% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 10/18 | 9/19 | 12/19 | 11/27 | 15/39 | 57/122 | |
% 2nd pts | 56% | 47% | 63% | 41% | 38% | 47% | |
Breaks | |||||||
Won | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | |
Converted | 5/8 | 3/6 | 3/9 | 0/1 | 5/15 | 16/39 | |
Converted % | 63% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 33% | 41% | |
Conceded | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 23 | |
Saved | 0/1 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 6/9 | 7/11 | 14 | |
Saved % | 0% | 0% | 100% | 67% | 64% | 58% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
Head 2 Head
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Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (4-6 7-67 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola Mektic – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (4-4) – H2H and prediction