H2H, prediction of Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul in Indian Wells with odds, preview, pick | 16th March 2024

PREVIEW. Indian Wells. Medvedev and Paul will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Saturday the 16th of March

Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.35
Tommy Paul -> 3.22

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

This will be the 3rd time that Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 6-2 6-1 in the 1st round in Beijing back in 2023.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul – Beijing 29-September-2023

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
6
High
1
LWWLWWLWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 8-5 5-3 0-0 3-2 0-0 0-0
2024 46-21 28-9 11-5 1-5 6-2 0-0
2023 66-18 38-8 10-3 11-4 7-3 0-0
2022 45-19 26-8 3-2 8-6 8-3 0-0
2021 63-13 33-5 5-3 18-3 7-2 0-0

Ranked no. 4, Daniil reached the semifinal after defeating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-3, Sebastian Korda 6-4 5-7 6-3, Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4 and Holger Rune 7-5 6-4.

In the quarter, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Rune (7-5 6-4). During the match, Medvedev scored 86 points vs Rune’s 71. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Regarding the service games, Medvedev struck 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 60% of his first serves in, winning 68% (30/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 62% (18/29) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Rune 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniil has lost 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a tremendous match record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (477-189). 13-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has a composed 231-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Medvedev’s best result of the season was reaching the final at the Australian Open .

Medvedev has an overall 13-2 win-loss record in 2024, 13-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Medvedev
Indian Wells
Medvedev's Record

Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
10
High
9
WLWWWLWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 10-3 7-2 0-0 3-1 0-0 0-0
2024 45-20 17-12 10-4 8-2 10-2 0-0
2023 46-29 29-13 5-6 3-5 9-5 0-0
2022 39-27 21-12 2-6 9-5 7-4 0-0
2021 33-23 12-12 9-7 12-4 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 17, Tommy got to the semifinal after defeating Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-2, Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-4, Luca Nardi 6-4 6-3 and Casper Ruud 6-2 1-6 6-3.

In the quarter, Paul defeated Ruud (6-2 1-6 6-3). During the match Paul scored 92 points vs Ruud’s 88. Tommy was quite aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Paul scored 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 4 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 55% of his first serves in, winning 72% (34/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (15/39) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Ruud 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tommy has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3.

Paul has an aggregate 14-4 win-loss record in 2024, 10-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.

Paul
Indian Wells
Paul's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

D.Medvedev
T.Paul
7h:13
7h:13
Time on court​
6h:13
6h:13
1h:59
1h:59
Last match​
!
2h:09
2h:09
4
4
Match played
4
4
90
90
Games Played​
79
79
9
9
Set played​​
9
9
315
315
Total points​
287
287
78.8
78.8
Avg point​
71.8
71.8
110
110
Winners
108
108
27.5
27.5
Avg Winners​
27
27
35%
35%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
12
12
Aces
13
13
3
3
Avg Aces
3.3
3.3
14
14
Double Faults
4
4
3.5
3.5
Avg Double Faults
1
1
110/147
110/147
1st won total​
108/139
108/139
!
75%
75%
1st won %
!
78%
78%
61/112
61/112
2nd won total​
46/95
46/95
54%
54%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
20/45
20/45
BP won
16/38
16/38
5/11.3
5/11.3
Avg BP won
4/9.5
4/9.5
44%
44%
Won
42%
42%
21
21
Conceded
14
14
5.3
5.3
Avg Conceded
3.5
3.5
11
11
Broken
6
6
2.8
2.8
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
10
10
Saved
8
8

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Medvedev Paul
Match played 4 4
Tot Set 9 9
Tot Games 90 79
Pts 315-253 287-240
Total Points 568 527
Winners 110 108
%Winners 35% 38%

Both Medvedev and Paul played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 1 set, while Tommy Paul conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Paul have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Medvedev played 11 games more than Paul. The Russian scored 110 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 108 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Medvedev Paul
Aces 12 13
Avg per match 3 3.3
1st in 147/259 139/234
%1st in 57% 59%
1st pts 110/147 108/139
%1st pts 75% 78%
2nd pts 61/112 46/95
%2nd pts 54% 48%

Medvedev made 12 aces (3 per match). Paul managed to score 13 aces (3.3 per match). Medvedev won 75% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Medvedev Paul
Won 20 16
Converted 20/45 16/38
% Converted 44% 42%
Conceded 21 14
Saved 10 8
% Saved 48% 57%
Times Broken 11 6

Daniil broke his opponents 20 times with a 44% conversion rate. Medvedev surrendered his serve 11 times and he saved 48% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
R2
Carballes Baena
R3
Korda
R4
Dimitrov
1/4
Rune
Total
Score 6-2 6-3 6-4 5-7 6-3 6-4 6-4 7-5 6-4
Tot Set 2 3 2 2 9
Tot Games 17 31 20 22 90
pts 57-37 110-98 62-47 86-71 315-253
Total points 94 208 109 157 568
Winners 23 31 26 30 110
%Winners 40% 28% 42% 35% 35%
SERVE
Aces 1 2 5 4 12
Double Faults 1 10 2 1 14
1st in 28/48 44/87 31/51 44/73 147/259
% 1st in 58% 51% 61% 60% 57%
1st pts 23/28 31/44 26/31 30/44 110/147
% 1st pts 82% 70% 84% 68% 75%
2nd pts 12/20 18/43 13/20 18/29 61/112
% 2nd pts 60% 42% 65% 62% 54%
Breaks
Won 4 9 3 4 20
Converted 4/7 9/22 3/6 4/10 20/45
Converted % 57% 41% 50% 40% 44%
Conceded 2 9 2 8 21
Saved 1/2 2/9 1/2 6/8 10
Saved % 50% 22% 50% 75% 49%
Times Broken 1 7 1 2 11
Paul
R2
Michelsen
R3
Humbert
R4
Nardi
R4
Nardi
1/4
Ruud
Total
Score 6-2 6-2 6-4 6-4 6-4 6-3 6-2 1-6 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 1 3 10
Tot Games 16 20 19 0 24 79
pts 67-47 64-51 64-54 54-64 92-88 341-304
Total points 114 115 118 118 180 645
Winners 19 30 25 29 34 137
%Winners 28% 47% 39% 54% 37% 40%
SERVE
Aces 0 3 5 2 5 15
Double Faults 1 1 0 2 2 6
1st in 23/41 37/56 32/51 40/67 47/86 179/301
% 1st in 56% 66% 63% 60% 55% 59%
1st pts 19/23 30/37 25/32 29/40 34/47 137/179
% 1st pts 83% 81% 78% 73% 72% 77%
2nd pts 10/18 9/19 12/19 11/27 15/39 57/122
% 2nd pts 56% 47% 63% 41% 38% 47%
Breaks
Won 5 3 3 0 5 16
Converted 5/8 3/6 3/9 0/1 5/15 16/39
Converted % 63% 50% 33% 0% 33% 41%
Conceded 1 1 1 9 11 23
Saved 0/1 0/1 1/1 6/9 7/11 14
Saved % 0% 0% 100% 67% 64% 58%
Times Broken 1 1 0 3 4 9

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Medvedev
LWWLWWLWWL
Paul
WLWWWLWWWW
2025 2024 2023
8 - 5
10 - 3
5-3
Hard
7-2
3-2
I Hard
3-1

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

  • Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio ZeballosSimone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (4-6 7-67 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola MekticKevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw