Tommy Paul and Luca Nardi will square off in the 4^th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.185
Luca Nardi -> 4.8

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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Luca Nardi

This will be the 2^nd time that Tommy Paul and Luca Nardi face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Nardi (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Nardi won in the 4^th round in Indian wells.

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 17, Paul reached the 4^th round after beating Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-2 and Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-4

.

In the 3^rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Humbert (6-4 6-4). During the match, Paul scored 64 points vs Humbert’s 51. The American was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paul struck 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Tommy Paul lost the serve once. Furthermore, Paul put 66% of his first serves in, winning 81% (30/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (9/19) on the 2nd serve. Paul broke Humbert 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paul hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

Paul has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (362-209). 8-4 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Paul has a compiled 183-105 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Dallas where he defeated Marcos Giron in the final 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3.

Paul has a compiled 12-4 win-loss record in 2024, 8-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Luca Nardi

Ranked no. 123, Luca reached the 4^th round after defeating Tommy Paul , Terence Atmane 6-4 6-0, Zhizhen Zhang 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Novak Djokovic 6-4 3-6 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, The Italian defeated Djokovic (6-4 3-6 6-3).During the match Nardi scored less points (1) than Djokovic. In fact, the world no. 17 won 92 points vs Djokovic’s. That means that Nardi was more focused during the important points. Luca was very aggressive to blast 44 winners.

About the serving games, Nardi blasted 6 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Luca Nardi lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Nardi put 71% of his first serves in, winning 69% (44/64) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. Luca broke Djokovic 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Luca started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in the Chennai Challenger.

Nardi has a composed 9-6 win-loss record in 2024, 9-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Nardi has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paul	Nardi
Match played	2	4
Tot Set	4	9
Tot Games	36	71
Pts	131-98	252-209
Total Points	229	461
Winners	49	104
%Winners	37%	41%

Paul played 2 matches while Nardi competed in 4 matches. Nardi started his run from the qualifications while Paul had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Luca Nardi dropped 2 sets while Tommy Paul hasn’t conceded a set so far. Paul has played 5 set(s) less than Nardi (4 vs 9). Therefore, Paul played 35 games less than Nardi. The American scored 49 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian managed to score 104 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paul	Nardi
Aces	3	14
Avg per match	1.5	3.5
1st in	60/97	141/219
%1st in	62%	64%
1st pts	49/60	104/141
%1st pts	82%	74%
2nd pts	19/37	45/78
%2nd pts	51%	58%

Paul blasted 3 aces (1.5 per match). Nardi recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Paul won 82% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paul	Nardi
Won	8	11
Converted	8/14	11/28
% Converted	57%	39%
Conceded	2	15
Saved	0	10
% Saved	0%	67%
Times Broken	2	5

Tommy broke his opponents 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. Tommy dropped his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 11 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Paul
	R2 Michelsen	R3 Humbert	R4 Nardi	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	1	5
Tot Games	16	20	0	36
pts	67-47	64-51	–	131-98
Total points	114	115	0	229
Winners	19	30		49
%Winners	28%	47%	0%	37%
SERVE
Aces	0	3	0	3
Double Faults	1	1		2
1st in	23/41	37/56	/	60/97
% 1st in	56%	66%	0%	62%
1st pts	19/23	30/37	/	49/60
% 1st pts	83%	81%	0%	82%
2nd pts	10/18	9/19	/	19/37
% 2nd pts	56%	47%	0%	51%
Breaks
Won	5	3		8
Converted	5/8	3/6	/	8/14
Converted %	63%	50%	0%	57%
Conceded	1	1		2
Saved	0/1	0/1	0/	0
Saved %	0%	0%	–	0%
Times Broken	1	1		2

Nardi
	Q1 Atmane	Q3 Goffin	R2 Zhang	R3 Djokovic	R4 Paul	Total
Score	6-4 6-0	7-64 5-7 6-4	6-3 3-6 6-3	6-4 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	3	3	1	12
Tot Games	16	35	27	28	0	106
pts	67-41	–	93-75	92-93	–	252-209
Total points	108	0	168	185	0	461
Winners	17		43	44		104
%Winners	25%	0%	46%	48%	0%	41%
SERVE
Aces	1	0	7	6	0	14
Double Faults	2		2	7		11
1st in	26/49	/	51/80	64/90	/	141/219
% 1st in	53%	0%	64%	71%	0%	64%
1st pts	17/26	/	43/51	44/64	/	104/141
% 1st pts	65%	0%	84%	69%	0%	74%
2nd pts	18/23	/	14/29	13/26	/	45/78
% 2nd pts	78%	0%	48%	50%	0%	58%
Breaks
Won	5		3	3		11
Converted	5/12	/	3/5	3/11	/	11/28
Converted %	42%	0%	60%	27%	0%	39%
Conceded	4		7	4		15
Saved	3/4	0/	5/7	2/4	0/	10
Saved %	75%	–	71%	50%	–	65%
Times Broken	1		2	2		5

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Ben SheltonShelton (7-6⁴ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (5-7 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Luca NardiNardi – Tommy PaulPaul () – Stats, scores, rankings
• Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils () – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov () – Stats, scores, rankings
• Taylor FritzFritz – Holger RuneRune () – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (7-3) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Jannik SinnerSinner (2-1) – H2H and prediction