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Jasmine Paolini and Anastasia Potapova will face off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.55
Anastasia Potapova -> 2.46
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Anastasia Potapova
There is no head to head record between Jasmine Paolini and Anastasia Potapova since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Jasmine Paolini
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14 (career-high), Paolini reached the 4th round after defeating Tatjana Maria 6-3 6-3 and Anna Kalinskaya 6-3 3-6 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Jasmine defeated Kalinskaya (6-3 3-6 6-4). During the match, Paolini scored 95 points vs Kalinskaya’s 87. Paolini was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Paolini fired 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 60% of her first serves in, winning 69% (34/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Kalinskaya 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Paolini has winning record in the last 10 years having won 56% of her matches (296-230). 11-4 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Paolini has a composed 102-84 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Dubai where she defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the final 4-6 7-5 7-5.
The Italian has an aggregate 11-5 win-loss record in 2024, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Anastasia Potapova
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 11-4 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 28-22 | 17-13 | 6-5 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
2023 | 30-21 | 11-14 | 7-4 | 7-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 35-24 | 14-14 | 18-7 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 21-23 | 11-11 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 33, Potapova got to the 4th round after defeating Marie Bouzkova 7-5 6-1 and Nadia Podoroska 6-1 6-1.
In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Podoroska (6-1 6-1). During the match Potapova scored 60 points vs Podoroska’s 35. Anastasia was very aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Potapova recorded 2 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Anastasia Potapova lost the serve once and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Potapova put 48% of her first serves in, winning 86% (19/22) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (10/24) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Podoroska 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Potapova hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
The Russian has an overall 9-5 win-loss record in 2024, 7-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Paolini | Potapova |
---|---|---|
Match played | 2 | 2 |
Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
Tot Games | 46 | 33 |
Pts | 164-137 | 134-94 |
Total Points | 301 | 228 |
Winners | 58 | 46 |
%Winners | 35% | 34% |
Both Paolini and Potapova played 2 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini dropped 1 set while Anastasia Potapova hasn’t lost a set so far. Paolini has played 1 set more than Potapova (5 vs 4). Therefore, Paolini played 13 games more than Potapova. Jasmine scored 58 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian managed to score 46 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Paolini | Potapova |
---|---|---|
Aces | 3 | 3 |
Avg per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1st in | 88/141 | 65/121 |
%1st in | 62% | 54% |
1st pts | 58/88 | 46/65 |
%1st pts | 66% | 71% |
2nd pts | 31/53 | 23/56 |
%2nd pts | 58% | 41% |
Paolini bagged 3 aces (1.5 per match). Potapova fired 3 aces (1.5 per match). Paolini won 66% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Potapova won 71% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 41% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Paolini | Potapova |
---|---|---|
Won | 9 | 13 |
Converted | 9/24 | 13/26 |
% Converted | 38% | 50% |
Conceded | 12 | 16 |
Saved | 7 | 11 |
% Saved | 58% | 69% |
Times Broken | 5 | 5 |
Paolini broke her opponents 9 times with a 38% conversion rate. Paolini dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 13 times with a 50% conversion rate. Potapova conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded.
Paolini | ||||
R2 Maria |
R3 Kalinskaya |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 3-6 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
Tot Games | 18 | 28 | 46 | |
pts | 69-50 | 95-87 | 164-137 | |
Total points | 119 | 182 | 301 | |
Winners | 24 | 34 | 58 | |
%Winners | 35% | 36% | 35% | |
SERVE | ||||
Aces | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
1st in | 39/59 | 49/82 | 88/141 | |
% 1st in | 66% | 60% | 62% | |
1st pts | 24/39 | 34/49 | 58/88 | |
% 1st pts | 62% | 69% | 66% | |
2nd pts | 13/20 | 18/33 | 31/53 | |
% 2nd pts | 65% | 55% | 58% | |
Breaks | ||||
Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
Converted | 5/11 | 4/13 | 9/24 | |
Converted % | 45% | 31% | 38% | |
Conceded | 8 | 4 | 12 | |
Saved | 6/8 | 1/4 | 7 | |
Saved % | 75% | 25% | 50% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Potapova | ||||
R2 Bouzkova |
R3 Podoroska |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 7-5 6-1 | 6-1 6-1 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Tot Games | 19 | 14 | 33 | |
pts | 74-59 | 60-35 | 134-94 | |
Total points | 133 | 95 | 228 | |
Winners | 27 | 19 | 46 | |
%Winners | 36% | 32% | 34% | |
SERVE | ||||
Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
1st in | 43/75 | 22/46 | 65/121 | |
% 1st in | 57% | 48% | 54% | |
1st pts | 27/43 | 19/22 | 46/65 | |
% 1st pts | 63% | 86% | 71% | |
2nd pts | 13/32 | 10/24 | 23/56 | |
% 2nd pts | 41% | 42% | 41% | |
Breaks | ||||
Won | 7 | 6 | 13 | |
Converted | 7/16 | 6/10 | 13/26 | |
Converted % | 44% | 60% | 50% | |
Conceded | 11 | 5 | 16 | |
Saved | 7/11 | 4/5 | 11 | |
Saved % | 64% | 80% | 72% | |
Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Head 2 Head
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Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yue YuanYuan – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Diane ParryParry – Maria SakkariSakkari () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Unknown PlayerPlayer – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka () – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Angelique KerberKerber – Caroline WozniackiWozniacki (8-7) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Yue YuanYuan – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Diane ParryParry – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-0) – H2H and prediction