Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur will fight against each other in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexander Zverev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alexander Zverev is the pick to win this match.
Alexander Zverev -> 1.86
Alex De Minaur -> 1.95
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Alexander Zverev vs. Alex De Minaur
This will be the 9th time that Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur face off. The head to head is 6-2 for Zverev (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, De Minaur won 5-7 6-3 6-4 in the semifinal in Australia back in January 2024.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Alexander Zverev – Australia 06-January-2024
Alexander Zverev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-6 | 11-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 69-21 | 29-10 | 23-6 | 11-3 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-27 | 22-13 | 20-7 | 8-5 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-10 | 9-4 | 17-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 59-15 | 28-6 | 14-4 | 13-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, the German got to the 4th round after beating Christopher O Connell 6-4 6-4 and Tallon Griekspoor 7-67 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Alexander had a good straight sets win against Griekspoor (7-67 6-3). During the match, Zverev scored 74 points vs Griekspoor’s 67. Alexander was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Zverev blasted 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Alexander Zverev lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Zverev put 76% of his first serves in, winning 76% (39/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (7/16) on the 2nd serve. Alexander broke Griekspoor 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Zverev hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Zverev has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of his matches (427-185). 13-4 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Zverev has an overall 176-79 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Australia where he overcame Hubert Hurkacz in the final 6-7(3) 7-6(6) 6-4.
The German has a compiled 13-4 win-loss record in 2024, 13-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-6 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Alex got to the 4th round after beating Taro Daniel 6-1 6-2 and Alexander Bublik 7-5 6-0.
In the 3rd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Bublik (7-5 6-0). During the match De Minaur scored 78 points vs Bublik’s 56. Alex was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, De Minaur managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 55% of his first serves in, winning 67% (24/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (17/29) on the 2nd serve. De Minaur broke Bublik 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Acapulco where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 6-4 6-4.
De Minaur has a compiled 17-4 win-loss record in 2024, 13-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2021 and 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Zverev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 33 |
| Pts | 149-127 | 134-84 |
| Total Points | 276 | 218 |
| Winners | 67 | 42 |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% |
Both Zverev and De Minaur played 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Zverev and De Minaur have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Zverev played 9 games more than De Minaur. The German scored 67 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Alex scored 42 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Zverev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 88/132 | 58/106 |
| %1st in | 67% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 67/88 | 42/58 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 24/44 | 29/48 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 60% |
Zverev struck 11 aces (5.5 per match). De Minaur managed to score 6 aces (3 per match). Zverev won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Zverev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 11 |
| Converted | 6/17 | 11/21 |
| % Converted | 35% | 52% |
| Conceded | 9 | 8 |
| Saved | 7 | 6 |
| % Saved | 78% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
Zverev broke his opponents 6 times with a 35% conversion rate. Zverev conceded his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. Alex broke his opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. De Minaur conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Zverev | ||||
| R2 O |
R3 Griekspoor |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 7-67 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 22 | 42 | |
| pts | 75-60 | 74-67 | 149-127 | |
| Total points | 135 | 141 | 276 | |
| Winners | 28 | 39 | 67 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 53% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 8 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 37/65 | 51/67 | 88/132 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 76% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 28/37 | 39/51 | 67/88 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 7/16 | 24/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 44% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 3/8 | 6/17 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 38% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 2/3 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 67% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| De Minaur | ||||
| R2 Daniel |
R3 Bublik |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 33 | |
| pts | 56-28 | 78-56 | 134-84 | |
| Total points | 84 | 134 | 218 | |
| Winners | 18 | 24 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 31% | 31% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 22/41 | 36/65 | 58/106 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 18/22 | 24/36 | 42/58 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 67% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/19 | 17/29 | 29/48 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 59% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 6/15 | 11/21 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 40% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 5/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLWLWWL
LWWLWWLLWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Luca NardiNardi – Tommy PaulPaul () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Holger RuneRune () – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-2) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Gael MonfilsMonfils (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-2) – H2H and prediction
