Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.154
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 5.4
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
This will be the 5th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Auger-Aliassime (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 6-4 6-4 in the quarter in Indian wells back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime – Indian wells 16-March-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Carlos reached the 3rd round after beating Matteo Arnaldi 6-75 6-0 6-1.
In the 2nd round against Arnaldi, Carlos recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-0 6-1). During the match, Alcaraz scored 99 points vs Arnaldi’s 69. Carlos was exceptionally aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz fired 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 86% (37/43) of his 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Carlos broke Arnaldi 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 7 years having won 78% of his matches (240-66). 5-1 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a compiled80-21 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
Carlos’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Buenos Aires.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 7-3 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Felix Auger-Aliassime
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 50-25 | 24-10 | 3-6 | 17-5 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-25 | 6-10 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 13-13 | 1-3 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 60-27 | 14-9 | 11-7 | 31-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-24 | 19-10 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, Felix reached the 3rd round after defeating Constant Lestienne 6-4 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Auger-Aliassime had a good straight sets win against Lestienne (6-4 6-1). During the match Auger-Aliassime scored 67 points vs Lestienne’s 49. Felix was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
About the serving games, Auger-Aliassime made 4 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Felix Auger-Aliassime was exceptionally effective on serve to win 85% (23/27) of his 1st serve and 55% (11/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Auger-Aliassime broke Lestienne 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Auger-Aliassime’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier.
Felix has an aggregate 7-6 win-loss record in 2024, 3-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 26 | 17 |
| Pts | 99-69 | 67-49 |
| Total Points | 168 | 116 |
| Winners | 37 | 23 |
| %Winners | 37% | 34% |
Both Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime played 1 match. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz dropped 1 set while Felix Auger-Aliassime hasn’t lost a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Auger-Aliassime (3 vs 2). Therefore, Alcaraz played 9 games more than Auger-Aliassime. Alcaraz scored 37 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Felix fired 23 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4 |
| 1st in | 43/76 | 27/47 |
| %1st in | 57% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 37/43 | 23/27 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 11/20 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 55% |
Alcaraz managed to score 2 aces . Auger-Aliassime made 4 aces . Alcaraz won 86% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Auger-Aliassime won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 4 |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 46% | 40% |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 |
| Saved | 3 | 3 |
| % Saved | 75% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Carlos broke his opponent 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Carlos lost his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Felix broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Auger-Aliassime was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.
| Alcaraz | |||
| R2 Arnaldi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-0 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 99-69 | 99-69 | |
| Total points | 168 | 168 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 43/76 | 43/76 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 37/43 | 37/43 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 18/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 6/13 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Auger-Aliassime | |||
| R2 Lestienne |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 67-49 | 67-49 | |
| Total points | 116 | 116 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 27/47 | 27/47 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 23/27 | 23/27 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/20 | 11/20 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWLLWWWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Luca NardiNardi – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Alexandre MullerMuller (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Lukas KleinKlein (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Fabio FogniniFognini (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-2 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (7-62 6-2) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Milos RaonicRaonic (w/o) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Patrick KypsonKypson (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Tomas MachacMachac (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Juncheng ShangShang (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Nicolas JarryJarry (3-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Constant LestienneLestienne (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Borna CoricCoric (6-73 6-2 7-69) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-2 3-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lucas PouillePouille (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Taro DanielDaniel (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Jakub MensikMensik (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Andy MurrayMurray (7-63 6-1) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-75 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-2 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Luca NardiNardi – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Lukas KleinKlein (6-4 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-0 6-7(5) 6-2) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Alexandre MullerMuller (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (7-6(2) 6-2) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Fabio FogniniFognini (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-4 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-4) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander BublikBublik – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Sebastian BaezBaez (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Ugo HumbertHumbert (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
