Sebastian Baez and Fabio Fognini will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 4. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.43
Fabio Fognini -> 2.84

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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Fabio Fognini

This will be the 2nd time that Sebastian Baez and Fabio Fognini square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Baez (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Baez won 6-3 6-4 in the 1st round in Bastad back in 2022.

Highlights Sebastian Baez vs Fabio Fognini – Bastad 12-July-2022

Sebastian Baez

Sebastian Baez

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
38
High
18
LLLLLLLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 16-16 0-4 16-11 0-0 0-1 0-0
2024 31-28 5-9 26-11 0-5 0-3 0-0
2023 33-27 9-7 22-13 1-5 1-2 0-0
2022 35-32 6-12 27-12 0-6 2-2 0-0
2021 56-16 2-1 52-12 2-2 0-1 0-0

Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Sebastian will start his run in Indian Wells after he won the title in Santiago after beating 3-6 6-0 6-4 Tabilo in the final.

Sebastian has an overall 16-5 win-loss record in 2024, 2-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Mariano Navone in the final 6-2 6-1 and in Santiago where he defeated Alejandro Tabilo in the final 3-6 6-0 6-4.

Sebastian won his last 9 matches.

Talking about his overall career, Baez has an overall 236-126 record. He has a positive 30-27 record on hard.

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See his history.

Indian Wells
Baez's Record

Fabio Fognini

Fabio Fognini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
138
High
9
LLLLLLWLLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 4-15 1-3 3-8 0-0 0-4 0-0
2024 35-28 7-10 23-12 2-4 3-2 0-0
2023 28-23 0-8 23-12 5-3 0-0 0-0
2022 24-26 10-9 12-12 2-4 0-1 0-0
2021 22-24 12-12 7-8 0-2 3-2 0-0

Ranked no. 108, the Italian reached the 2nd round after defeating Bernabe Zapata Miralles 4-6 6-2 6-3.

In the 1st round against Zapata Miralles, Fognini recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-2 6-3). During the match Fognini scored 84 points vs Zapata Miralles’s 72. Fabio was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.

Talking about serving, Fognini recorded 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Fabio Fognini lost the serve 5 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Fognini put 45% of his first serves in, winning 63% (19/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Fabio broke Zapata Miralles 8 times after converting 50% of his break points (8/16).

Fabio has an overall 3-3 win-loss record in 2024, 3-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2014. See his history.

Indian Wells
Fognini's Record

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

  • Alexander ZverevZverevChristopher O ConnellO Connell (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-AliassimeConstant LestienneLestienne (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Alex De MinaurDe MinaurTaro DanielDaniel (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Andrey RublevRublevAndy MurrayMurray (7-63 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoorYannick HanfmannHanfmann (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Francisco CerundoloCerundoloAlexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-2 3-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Alexander BublikBublikJuncheng Shang
    Shang (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Jiri LeheckaLeheckaBrandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Ben SheltonSheltonJakub MensikMensik (4-6 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipasLucas PouillePouille (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Jannik SinnerSinnerThanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Fabian MarozsanMarozsanNicolas JarryJarry (3-6 7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Thiago Seyboth WildThiagoKaren KhachanovKaren (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
  • Carlos AlcarazCarlosMatteo ArnaldiMatteo (6-7(5) 6-0 6-1) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw