Illya Marchenko and Cem Ilkel will face off in the qualifications of the Lugano Challenger for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 10:00 am on CENTRALE. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Illya Marchenko who should win in 3 sets.
Illya Marchenko -> 1.69
Cem Ilkel -> 2.09
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Prediction and head to head Illya Marchenko vs. Cem Ilkel
This will be the 4th time that Illya Marchenko and Cem Ilkel face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Ilkel (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they competed against each other, Ilkel won 6-7(3) 6-4 7-5 in the 1st round in the Bergamo Challenger back in 2023.
Illya Marchenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8-13 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-22 | 17-5 | 6-6 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-25 | 9-10 | 3-4 | 8-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-28 | 5-7 | 2-5 | 26-12 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 15-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 226, Illya got to the qualifications after defeating Yannik Steinegger 6-2 3-6 6-2.
In the qualifications, Illya defeated Steinegger (6-2 3-6 6-2). During the match, Marchenko scored 87 points vs Steinegger’s 74. Marchenko was quite aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Regarding the service games, Marchenko managed to score 8 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Illya Marchenko lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Marchenko put 64% of his first serves in, winning 69% (37/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 60% (18/30) on the 2nd serve. Marchenko broke Steinegger 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Marchenko has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (261-203). 2-2 on indoor hard courts in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Marchenko has an overall 121-69 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
Illya has a compiled 2-5 win-loss record in 2024, 2-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS)
.Previously in the Lugano Challenger
Cem Ilkel
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9-14 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-29 | 6-10 | 0-4 | 27-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-16 | 2-4 | 0-3 | 16-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-29 | 17-9 | 13-11 | 8-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 13-15 | 2-3 | 1-7 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 318, the Turk reached the qualifications after beating Kyle Edmund 3-6 7-65 6-2.
In the qualifications against Edmund, Ilkel recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-65 6-2). During the match Ilkel scored 103 points vs Edmund’s 97. The Turk was extremely aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Ilkel recorded 12 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Cem Ilkel lost the serve 3 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Ilkel put 55% of his first serves in, winning 80% (45/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (19/46) on the 2nd serve. Ilkel broke Edmund 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Cem has a composed 5-6 win-loss record in 2024, 3-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS)
.Previously in the Lugano Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Marchenko | Ilkel |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 25 | 30 |
| Pts | 87-74 | 103-97 |
| Total Points | 161 | 200 |
| Winners | 37 | 45 |
| %Winners | 43% | 44% |
Both Marchenko and Ilkel played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Illya Marchenko lost 1 set, while Cem Ilkel lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Marchenko and Ilkel have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Marchenko played 5 games less than Ilkel. Marchenko scored 37 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Turk fired 45 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Marchenko | Ilkel |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 12 |
| 1st in | 54/84 | 56/102 |
| %1st in | 64% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 37/54 | 45/56 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 18/30 | 19/46 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 41% |
Marchenko scored 8 aces . Ilkel struck 12 aces . Marchenko won 69% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Ilkel won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 41% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Marchenko | Ilkel |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 3 |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/7 |
| % Converted | 57% | 43% |
| Conceded | 3 | 12 |
| Saved | 2 | 9 |
| % Saved | 67% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 |
Marchenko broke his opponent 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. The Ukrainian dropped his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Turk broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Cem conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Marchenko | |||
| Q1 Steinegger | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 25 | |
| pts | 87-74 | 87-74 | |
| Total points | 161 | 161 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 8 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 54/84 | 54/84 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 37/54 | 37/54 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/30 | 18/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/7 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Ilkel | |||
| Q1 Edmund | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-65 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 103-97 | 103-97 | |
| Total points | 200 | 200 | |
| Winners | 45 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 12 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 56/102 | 56/102 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 45/56 | 45/56 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/46 | 19/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 41% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 | |
| Saved | 9/12 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Illya MarchenkoMarchenko – Cem IlkelIlkel (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Richard BerankisBerankis – Altug CelikbilekCelikbilek (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Radu AlbotAlbot – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pierre-Hugues HerbertHerbert – Joris De LooreDe Loore (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Yasutaka UchiyamaUchiyama – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Riccardo BonadioBonadio – Daniel MasurMasur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan ChoinskiChoinski – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Billy HarrisHarris – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gijs BrouwerBrouwer – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Remy BertolaBertola – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Zizou BergsBergs – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yu Hsiou HsuHsiou Hsu – Egor GerasimovGerasimov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rudolf MollekerMolleker – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yuta ShimizuShimizu – Henri SquireSquire (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete – Antoine EscoffierEscoffier (0-1) – H2H and prediction