Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud will clash against each other in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 9:00 pm on ESTADIO. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.85
Casper Ruud -> 1.96
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Casper Ruud
This will be the 3rd time that Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud square off. The head to head is 1-1 for De Minaur and Ruud (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, De Minaur won 4-1 4-0 4-2 in the R in Next gen atp finals back in 2019.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Casper Ruud – Next gen atp finals 07-November-2019
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 0-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9 (career-high), the Australian reached the final after defeating Taro Daniel 6-2 6-1, Sebastian Ofner 6-1 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-6 6-3 6-3 and Jack Draper 6-3 2-6 4-0 ret..
In the semifinal against Draper, the Australian had a free pass after Draper retired on a 6-3 2-6 4-0 . scoreline.
De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (332-191). 10-3 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has an overall 162-83 match record in the last years on hard.
De Minaur’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Rotterdam.
De Minaur has a compiled 14-4 win-loss record in 2024, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 51-25 | 21-9 | 24-7 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-13 | 4-5 | 17-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Ruud reached the final after beating Christopher Eubanks 6-4 6-75 6-3, Dusan Lajovic 6-4 7-5, Ben Shelton 6-77 6-4 6-4 and Holger Rune 3-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Rune, Ruud recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Ruud scored 86 points vs Rune’s 84. Casper was extremely aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about serving, Ruud made 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Casper Ruud lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Ruud put 64% of his first serves in, winning 75% (42/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (14/32) on the 2nd serve. The Norwegian broke Rune 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ruud has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Norwegian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Los Cabos.
Ruud has an aggregate 13-2 win-loss record in 2024, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 77 | 115 |
| Pts | 284-222 | 351-316 |
| Total Points | 506 | 667 |
| Winners | 85 | 174 |
| %Winners | 30% | 50% |
Both De Minaur and Ruud played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur surrendered 2 sets, while Casper Ruud dropped 3 sets. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Ruud have played the same amount of sets 11. However, De Minaur played 38 games less than Ruud. De Minaur scored 85 winners (30% of the total points). On the other side, The Norwegian made 174 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 6 |
| 1st in | 118/229 | 213/330 |
| %1st in | 52% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 85/118 | 174/213 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 61/111 | 67/117 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 57% |
De Minaur blasted 14 aces (3.5 per match). Ruud struck 24 aces (6 per match). De Minaur won 72% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 10 |
| Converted | 19/39 | 10/24 |
| % Converted | 49% | 42% |
| Conceded | 18 | 11 |
| Saved | 10 | 8 |
| % Saved | 56% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 3 |
The Australian broke his opponents 19 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Australian surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. Ruud broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Casper conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||||
| R1 Daniel |
R2 Ofner |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
1/2 Draper |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-1 6-3 | 1-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 2-6 4-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 77 | |
| pts | 61-36 | 71-47 | 80-79 | 72-60 | 284-222 | |
| Total points | 97 | 118 | 159 | 132 | 506 | |
| Winners | 14 | 19 | 26 | 26 | 85 | |
| %Winners | 23% | 27% | 33% | 36% | 30% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 18/49 | 21/44 | 41/74 | 38/62 | 118/229 | |
| % 1st in | 37% | 48% | 55% | 61% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 14/18 | 19/21 | 26/41 | 26/38 | 85/118 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 90% | 63% | 68% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/31 | 13/23 | 13/33 | 14/24 | 61/111 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 57% | 39% | 58% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/12 | 6/12 | 4/6 | 19/39 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 18 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/2 | 2/7 | 4/6 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 29% | 67% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | |
| Ruud | ||||||
| R1 Eubanks |
R2 Lajovic |
1/4 Shelton |
1/2 Rune |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-75 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-77 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 22 | 33 | 28 | 115 | |
| pts | 98-87 | 63-54 | 104-91 | 86-84 | 351-316 | |
| Total points | 185 | 117 | 195 | 170 | 667 | |
| Winners | 47 | 35 | 50 | 42 | 174 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 56% | 48% | 49% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 55/90 | 39/61 | 63/91 | 56/88 | 213/330 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 64% | 69% | 64% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 47/55 | 35/39 | 50/63 | 42/56 | 174/213 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 90% | 79% | 75% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/35 | 12/22 | 19/28 | 14/32 | 67/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 55% | 68% | 44% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/5 | 2/6 | 4/9 | 10/24 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 40% | 33% | 44% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 7/10 | 8 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | – | 70% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Casper RuudRuud (1-1) – H2H and prediction
