Holger Rune and Casper Ruud will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 8:30 pm on ESTADIO. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Casper Ruud who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Casper Ruud is the pick to win this match.
Casper Ruud -> 1.76
Holger Rune -> 2.07
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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Casper Ruud
This will be the 7th time that Holger Rune and Casper Ruud play each other. The head to head is 5-1 for Ruud (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Ruud won 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3 in the quarter in at the French Open back in 2023.
Highlights Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune – French Open 07-June-2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JkVp28oSbk
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-10 | 9-5 | 5-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Holger got to the semifinal after beating Michael Mmoh 6-2 6-3, Aleksandar Kovacevic 7-65 6-2 and Dominik Koepfer 7-62 7-60.
In the quarter, Holger had a good straight sets win against Koepfer (7-62 7-60). During the match, Rune scored 78 points vs Koepfer’s 70. Holger was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rune blasted 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Holger Rune lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Rune put 65% of his first serves in, winning 77% (40/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Rune was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Koepfer 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rune hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.
Rune has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 66% of his matches (217-110). 8-2 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Rune has a composed38-32 record in the last 7 years on hard.
Holger’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Brisbane.
Holger has an aggregate 11-4 win-loss record in 2024, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-6 | 6-3 | 7-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-25 | 21-9 | 24-7 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Casper reached the semifinal after defeating Christopher Eubanks 6-4 6-75 6-3, Dusan Lajovic 6-4 7-5 and Ben Shelton 6-77 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter against Shelton, Ruud recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-77 6-4 6-4). During the match Ruud scored 104 points vs Shelton’s 91. Ruud was exceptionally aggressive to blast 50 winners.
About the serving games, Ruud struck 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Casper Ruud was pretty efficient on serve to win 79% (50/63) of his 1st serve and 68% (19/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Ruud broke Shelton twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Casper has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Casper’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Los Cabos.
Ruud has an overall 12-2 win-loss record in 2024, 11-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rune | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 64 | 87 |
| Pts | 219-176 | 265-232 |
| Total Points | 395 | 497 |
| Winners | 97 | 132 |
| %Winners | 44% | 50% |
Both Rune and Ruud played 3 matches. At the moment, Casper Ruud lost 2 sets while Holger Rune hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Rune has played 2 set(s) less than Ruud (6 vs 8). Therefore, Rune played 23 games less than Ruud. The Dane scored 97 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Ruud struck 132 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rune | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 6.3 |
| 1st in | 124/208 | 157/242 |
| %1st in | 60% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 97/124 | 132/157 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 84% |
| 2nd pts | 47/84 | 53/85 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 62% |
Rune fired 24 aces (8 per match). Ruud managed to score 19 aces (6.3 per match). Rune won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 84% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rune | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 6 |
| Converted | 8/16 | 6/15 |
| % Converted | 50% | 40% |
| Conceded | 17 | 1 |
| Saved | 14 | 1 |
| % Saved | 82% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
Rune broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Rune dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. The Norwegian broke his opponents 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. Ruud was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Rune | |||||
| R1 Mmoh |
R2 Kovacevic |
1/4 Koepfer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 7-65 6-2 | 7-62 7-60 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 21 | 26 | 64 | |
| pts | 63-44 | 78-62 | 78-70 | 219-176 | |
| Total points | 107 | 140 | 148 | 395 | |
| Winners | 25 | 32 | 40 | 97 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 41% | 51% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 11 | 7 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 29/54 | 43/74 | 52/80 | 124/208 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 58% | 65% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 32/43 | 40/52 | 97/124 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 74% | 77% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/25 | 21/31 | 13/28 | 47/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 68% | 46% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 2/7 | 3/3 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 29% | 100% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 7/7 | 2/5 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 40% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Ruud | |||||
| R1 Eubanks |
R2 Lajovic |
1/4 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-75 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-77 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 22 | 33 | 87 | |
| pts | 98-87 | 63-54 | 104-91 | 265-232 | |
| Total points | 185 | 117 | 195 | 497 | |
| Winners | 47 | 35 | 50 | 132 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 56% | 48% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 55/90 | 39/61 | 63/91 | 157/242 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 64% | 69% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 47/55 | 35/39 | 50/63 | 132/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 90% | 79% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/35 | 12/22 | 19/28 | 53/85 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 55% | 68% | 62% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/5 | 2/6 | 6/15 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 40% | 33% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | – | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLLLW
WWWWLWWLWL Tennis Scores in Acapulco
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Ben SheltonShelton (6-77 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (7-62 7-60) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Ben SheltonShelton (6-7(7) 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (7-6(2) 7-6(0)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Casper RuudRuud – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
