Sebastian Baez and Mariano Navone will play each other in the final of the Rio Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:30 pm on QUADRA GUGA KUERTEN. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.41
Mariano Navone -> 2.92
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Mariano Navone
There is no head to head record between Sebastian Baez and Mariano Navone since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-27 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-13 | 10-3 | 18-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 30, Baez reached the final after defeating Corentin Moutet 6-4 6-3, Facundo Diaz Acosta 7-61 6-3, Thiago Moura Monteiro 6-4 1-6 6-2 and Francisco Cerundolo 7-5 6-0.
In the semifinal, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Cerundolo (7-5 6-0). During the match, Baez scored 68 points vs Cerundolo’s 45. Sebastian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Baez fired 2 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 78% of his first serves in, winning 69% (29/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Cerundolo 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sebastian has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Baez has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 65% of his matches (231-126). 9-2 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Baez has a composed195-80 record in the last 9 years on clay.
Baez’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Cordoba and Rio de Janeiro.
Sebastian has a compiled 11-5 win-loss record in 2024, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rio de Janeiro
Mariano Navone
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-28 | 2-7 | 27-14 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-23 | 0-1 | 40-21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-25 | 0-1 | 44-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-24 | 0-0 | 40-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 23-8 | 4-2 | 19-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 113 (career-high), the Argentine got to the final after beating Mateus Alves 6-4 6-3, Genaro Alberto Olivieri 6-1 7-63, Federico Coria 1-6 6-4 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 6-1 6-2, Joao Fonseca 2-6 6-3 6-3 and Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, Navone had a good straight sets win against Norrie (6-4 6-2). During the match Navone scored 79 points vs Norrie’s 61. Navone was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Navone made 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Mariano Navone lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Navone put 64% of his first serves in, winning 67% (24/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the 2nd serve. Navone broke Norrie 5 times after converting 28% of his break points (5/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Argentine’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Tigre Challenger.
The Argentine has a compiled 12-5 win-loss record in 2024, 12-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rio de Janeiro
Mariano has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Baez | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 84 | 123 |
| Pts | 294-237 | 458-378 |
| Total Points | 531 | 836 |
| Winners | 134 | 178 |
| %Winners | 46% | 39% |
Baez played 4 matches while Navone competed in 6 matches. Navone started his run from the qualifications while Baez had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Baez conceded 1 set, while Mariano Navone dropped 2 sets. Baez has played 5 set(s) less than Navone (9 vs 14). Therefore, Baez played 39 games less than Navone. Baez scored 134 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Argentine fired 178 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Baez | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 193/270 | 271/370 |
| %1st in | 71% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 134/193 | 178/271 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 42/77 | 47/99 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 47% |
Baez scored 8 aces (2 per match). Navone struck 9 aces (1.5 per match). Baez won 69% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Navone won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Baez | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 31 |
| Converted | 15/34 | 31/78 |
| % Converted | 44% | 40% |
| Conceded | 21 | 36 |
| Saved | 14 | 20 |
| % Saved | 67% | 56% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 16 |
The Argentine broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. Sebastian dropped his serve 7 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Mariano broke his opponents 31 times with a 40% conversion rate. Navone conceded his serve 16 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.
| Baez | ||||||
| R1 Moutet |
R2 Diaz |
1/4 Moura Monteiro |
1/2 Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 7-61 6-3 | 6-4 1-6 6-2 | 7-5 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 25 | 18 | 84 | |
| pts | 71-57 | 75-62 | 80-73 | 68-45 | 294-237 | |
| Total points | 128 | 137 | 153 | 113 | 531 | |
| Winners | 32 | 34 | 39 | 29 | 134 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 45% | 49% | 43% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 48/65 | 46/68 | 57/83 | 42/54 | 193/270 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 68% | 69% | 78% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 32/48 | 34/46 | 39/57 | 29/42 | 134/193 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 74% | 68% | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/17 | 13/22 | 12/26 | 8/12 | 42/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 59% | 46% | 67% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 2/9 | 4/6 | 5/10 | 15/34 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 22% | 67% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 21 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 0/1 | 5/8 | 6/7 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 0% | 63% | 86% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Navone | ||||||||
| Q1 Alves |
Q3 Alberto |
R1 Coria |
R2 Hanfmann |
1/4 Fonseca |
1/2 Norrie |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-1 7-63 | 1-6 6-4 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | 2-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 25 | 15 | 26 | 18 | 123 | |
| pts | 71-56 | 75-57 | 87-82 | 60-39 | 86-83 | 79-61 | 458-378 | |
| Total points | 127 | 132 | 169 | 99 | 169 | 140 | 836 | |
| Winners | 33 | 29 | 30 | 24 | 38 | 24 | 178 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 39% | 34% | 40% | 44% | 30% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 41/48 | 43/57 | 51/72 | 34/50 | 66/87 | 36/56 | 271/370 | |
| % 1st in | 85% | 75% | 71% | 68% | 76% | 64% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 33/41 | 29/43 | 30/51 | 24/34 | 38/66 | 24/36 | 178/271 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 67% | 59% | 71% | 58% | 67% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 4/7 | 6/14 | 7/21 | 11/16 | 7/21 | 12/20 | 47/99 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 43% | 33% | 69% | 33% | 60% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 31 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 5/9 | 7/21 | 4/8 | 7/13 | 5/18 | 31/78 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 56% | 33% | 50% | 54% | 28% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 36 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 3/5 | 8/14 | 2/2 | 5/11 | 2/4 | 20 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 57% | 100% | 45% | 50% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Mariano NavoneNavone (0-0) – H2H and prediction
