Federico Coria and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will play each other in the final of the Piracicaba Challenger for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on QUADRA CENTRAL. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.67
Federico Coria -> 2.12
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Prediction and head to head Federico Coria vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
This will be the 5th time that Federico Coria and Camilo Ugo Carabelli face off. The head to head is 2-2 (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Ugo won 7-6(3) 6-0 in the 1st round in the Montevideo Challenger back in 2023.
Federico Coria
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-15 | 0-1 | 20-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-29 | 3-8 | 35-20 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-32 | 2-5 | 39-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-31 | 2-7 | 40-20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-22 | 3-5 | 15-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, the Argentine reached the final after defeating Renzo Olivo 6-1 7-5, Juan Bautista Torres 6-0 3-0 ret., Gianluca Mager 6-0 4-6 6-3 and Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 7-5 7-66.
In the semifinal, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Pucinelli De Almeida (7-5 7-66). During the match, Coria scored 89 points vs Pucinelli De Almeida’s 83. Coria was quite aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Regarding the service games, Coria wasn’t able to score even 1 ace during the encounter and he committed only 4 double faults. Federico Coria lost the serve 4 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Coria put 78% of his first serves in, winning 62% (43/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (8/19) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Pucinelli De Almeida 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Coria has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Coria has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (407-259). 4-1 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Coria has a composed 391-213 record in the last years on clay.
Federico’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Piracicaba Challenger.
The Argentine has a compiled 4-2 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Piracicaba Challenger
The Argentine has never competed in this tournament before.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
8 - 2win/loss
110
96
LLLWLWLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-13 | 2-1 | 25-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-12 | 0-1 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 149, the Argentine reached the final after defeating Carlos Taberner 7-63 6-2, Mateus Alves 6-2 6-2, Kilian Feldbausch 6-1 6-4 and Felix Gill 6-3 6-0.
In the semifinal, Ugo had a good straight sets win against Gill (6-3 6-0). During the match Ugo scored 55 points vs Gill’s 28. The Argentine was extremely aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Talking about serving, Ugo struck 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli was extremely efficient on serve to win 86% (19/22) of his 1st serve and 59% (10/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Camilo broke Gill 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points he played.
Ugo’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Piracicaba Challenger.
The Argentine has a compiled 7-2 win-loss record in 2024, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Piracicaba Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Coria | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 78 | 69 |
| Pts | 312-248 | 250-169 |
| Total Points | 560 | 419 |
| Winners | 147 | 100 |
| %Winners | 47% | 40% |
Both Coria and Ugo played 4 matches. At the moment, Federico Coria lost 1 set while Camilo Ugo Carabelli hasn’t conceded a set so far. Coria has played 2 sets more than Ugo (10 vs 8). Therefore, Coria played 9 games more than Ugo. The Argentine scored 147 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Camilo fired 100 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Coria | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 222/292 | 129/209 |
| %1st in | 76% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 147/222 | 100/129 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 32/70 | 44/80 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 55% |
Coria blasted 2 aces (0.5 per match). Ugo recorded 5 aces (1.3 per match). Coria won 66% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Ugo won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Coria | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 18 |
| Converted | 20/39 | 18/28 |
| % Converted | 51% | 64% |
| Conceded | 32 | 14 |
| Saved | 24 | 10 |
| % Saved | 75% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 4 |
The Argentine broke his opponents 20 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Argentine dropped his serve 8 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Ugo broke his opponents 18 times with a 64% conversion rate. Ugo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Coria | ||||||
| R1 Olivo |
R2 Bautista |
1/4 Mager |
1/2 Pucinelli De Almeida |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 | 6-0 3-0 ret. | 6-0 4-6 6-3 | 7-5 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 78 | |
| pts | 81-61 | 46-27 | 96-77 | 89-83 | 312-248 | |
| Total points | 142 | 73 | 173 | 172 | 560 | |
| Winners | 33 | 21 | 50 | 43 | 147 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 46% | 52% | 48% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 50/71 | 29/41 | 74/92 | 69/88 | 222/292 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 71% | 80% | 78% | 76% | |
| 1st pts | 33/50 | 21/29 | 50/74 | 43/69 | 147/222 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 72% | 68% | 62% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/21 | 5/12 | 5/18 | 8/19 | 32/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 42% | 28% | 42% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/6 | 7/10 | 5/11 | 20/39 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 67% | 70% | 45% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 32 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/4 | 11/14 | 5/9 | 24 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 79% | 56% | 79% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |
| Ugo | ||||||
| R1 Taberner |
R2 Alves |
1/4 Feldbausch |
1/2 Gill |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 69 | |
| pts | 66-52 | 68-50 | 61-39 | 55-28 | 250-169 | |
| Total points | 118 | 118 | 100 | 83 | 419 | |
| Winners | 31 | 26 | 24 | 19 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 38% | 39% | 35% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 35/56 | 39/59 | 33/55 | 22/39 | 129/209 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 66% | 60% | 56% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 31/35 | 26/39 | 24/33 | 19/22 | 100/129 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 67% | 73% | 86% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 12/20 | 10/22 | 10/17 | 44/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 60% | 45% | 59% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 5/11 | 5/5 | 5/6 | 18/28 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 45% | 100% | 83% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 14 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 8/9 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 89% | 0% | – | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Federico CoriaCoria – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (2-2) – H2H and prediction
