Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will clash against each other in the final of the Australian Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.48
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.73

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner

This will be the 10^th time that Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner square off. The head to head is 6-3 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Sinner won 6-3 6-7(4) 6-1 in the semifinal in Nitto atp finals back in 2023.

Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev – Nitto atp finals 18-November-2023

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 3, Medvedev reached the final after beating Terence Atmane 5-7 6-2 6-4 1-0 ret., Emil Ruusuvuori 3-6 6-7¹ 6-4 7-6¹ 6-0, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-4 6-3, Nuno Borges 6-3 7-6⁴ 5-7 6-1, Hubert Hurkacz 7-6⁴ 2-6 6-3 5-7 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 5-7 3-6 7-6⁴ 7-6⁵ 6-3.

In the semifinal, Daniil had a tough win against Zverev to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (5-7 3-6 7-6⁴ 7-6⁵ 6-3).During the match, Medvedev scored less points (4) than Zverev. In fact, the world no. 3 won 161 points vs Zverev’s. That means that Medvedev was more focused during the important points. Medvedev was quite aggressive to blast 72 winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev recorded 14 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was quite effective on serve to win 77% (72/94) of his 1st serve and 56% (35/62) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 5 times. Daniil broke Zverev 4 times after converting 29% of his break points (4/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Medvedev has surrendered 7 set in this event to win 51% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (470-187). 6-0 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has a composed 224-69 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Medvedev’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal at the Australian Open .

Medvedev has a compiled 6-0 win-loss record in 2024, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Jannik Sinner

Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Italian reached the final after defeating Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-4 7-5 6-3, Jesper De Jong 6-2 6-2 6-2, Sebastian Baez 6-0 6-1 6-3, Karen Khachanov 6-4 7-5 6-3

, Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-6⁵ 6-3 and Novak Djokovic 6-1 6-2 6-7⁶ 6-3.

In the semifinal, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Djokovic (6-1 6-2 6-7⁶ 6-3). During the match Sinner scored 128 points vs Djokovic’s 98. Sinner was pretty aggressive to blast 53 winners.

Talking about serving, Sinner managed to score 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jannik Sinner was extremely efficient on serve to win 83% (53/64) of his 1st serve and 63% (29/46) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sinner broke Djokovic 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal at the Australian Open .

The Italian has a compiled 6-0 win-loss record in 2024, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Sinner
Match played	6	6
Tot Set	27	19
Tot Games	259	177
Pts	855-802	628-481
Total Points	1657	1109
Winners	382	253
%Winners	45%	40%

Both Medvedev and Sinner played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev conceded 8 sets, while Jannik Sinner surrendered 1 set. Medvedev has played 8 sets more than Sinner (27 vs 19). Therefore, Medvedev played 82 games more than Sinner. Daniil scored 382 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian struck 253 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Sinner
Aces	78	47
Avg per match	13	7.8
1st in	509/832	324/540
%1st in	61%	60%
1st pts	382/509	253/324
%1st pts	75%	78%
2nd pts	156/323	130/216
%2nd pts	48%	60%

Medvedev scored 78 aces (13 per match). Sinner scored 47 aces (7.8 per match). Medvedev won 75% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Sinner
Won	33	30
Converted	33/78	30/65
% Converted	42%	46%
Conceded	64	28
Saved	41	26
% Saved	64%	93%
Times Broken	23	2

Daniil broke his opponents 33 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Russian lost his serve 23 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 30 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 93% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R1 Atmane	R2 Ruusuvuori	R3 Auger-Aliassime	R4 Borges	1/4 Hurkacz	1/2 Zverev	Total
Score	5-7 6-2 6-4 1-0 ret.	3-6 6-71 6-4 7-61 6-0	6-3 6-4 6-3	6-3 7-64 5-7 6-1	7-64 2-6 6-3 5-7 6-4	5-7 3-6 7-64 7-65 6-3
Tot Set	4	5	3	4	5	5	26
Tot Games	31	51	28	41	52	56	259
pts	112-99	183-169	91-75	152-130	156-164	161-165	855-802
Total points	211	352	166	282	320	326	1657
Winners	39	73	43	69	86	72	382
%Winners	35%	40%	47%	45%	55%	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	9	23	8	13	11	14	78
Double Faults	4	8	4	11	10	6	43
1st in	54/90	104/175	55/86	92/145	110/180	94/156	509/832
% 1st in	60%	59%	64%	63%	61%	60%	61%
1st pts	39/54	73/104	43/55	69/92	86/110	72/94	382/509
% 1st pts	72%	70%	78%	75%	78%	77%	75%
2nd pts	21/36	32/71	15/31	24/53	29/70	35/62	156/323
% 2nd pts	58%	45%	48%	45%	41%	56%	48%
Breaks
Won	6	8	5	6	4	4	33
Converted	6/19	8/16	5/7	6/13	4/9	4/14	33/78
Converted %	32%	50%	71%	46%	44%	29%	42%
Conceded	8	18	2	11	15	10	64
Saved	5/8	13/18	1/2	7/11	10/15	5/10	41
Saved %	63%	72%	50%	64%	67%	50%	61%
Times Broken	3	5	1	4	5	5	23

Sinner
	R1 Van De Zandschulp	R2 De	R3 Baez	R4 Khachanov	1/4 Rublev	1/2 Djokovic	Total
Score	6-4 7-5 6-3	6-2 6-2 6-2	6-0 6-1 6-3	6-4 7-5 6-3	6-4 7-65 6-3	6-1 6-2 6-76 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	3	3	3	4	19
Tot Games	31	24	22	31	32	37	177
pts	106-89	87-51	88-56	104-84	115-103	128-98	628-481
Total points	195	138	144	188	218	226	1109
Winners	35	32	35	41	57	53	253
%Winners	33%	37%	40%	39%	50%	41%	40%
SERVE
Aces	7	7	6	8	10	9	47
Double Faults	2	1	0	3	3	1	10
1st in	51/88	37/58	45/70	52/97	75/117	64/110	324/540
% 1st in	58%	64%	64%	54%	64%	58%	60%
1st pts	35/51	32/37	35/45	41/52	57/75	53/64	253/324
% 1st pts	69%	86%	78%	79%	76%	83%	78%
2nd pts	24/37	16/21	13/25	26/45	22/42	29/46	130/216
% 2nd pts	65%	76%	52%	58%	52%	63%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	6	7	5	2	5	30
Converted	5/15	6/12	7/12	5/8	2/7	5/11	30/65
Converted %	33%	50%	58%	63%	29%	45%	46%
Conceded	6	0	4	10	8	0	28
Saved	5/6	0/0	4/4	9/10	8/8	0/0	26
Saved %	83%	–	100%	90%	100%	–	62%
Times Broken	1	0	0	1	0	0	2

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (3-6) – H2H and prediction