Jasmine Paolini and Anna Kalinskaya will square off in the 4th round of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 6:00 pm on John Cain Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Anna Kalinskaya who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Anna Kalinskaya is the pick to win this match.
Anna Kalinskaya -> 1.909
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.909
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Anna Kalinskaya
This will be the 2nd time that Jasmine Paolini and Anna Kalinskaya face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Paolini (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Paolini won 6-3 6-2 in the 2nd round in Portoroz back in 2021.
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, the Italian got to the 4th round after defeating Diana Shnaider 6-3 6-4, Tatjana Maria 6-2 6-3 and Anna Blinkova 7-61 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Blinkova (7-61 6-4). During the match, Paolini scored 71 points vs Blinkova’s 54. Paolini was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Paolini managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 82% of her first serves in, winning 68% (34/50) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (5/11) on the 2nd serve. Jasmine broke Blinkova 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Paolini has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 56% of her matches (289-227). 4-2 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has an overall 95-82 record in the last years on hard.
Paolini has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2024, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Anna Kalinskaya
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 38-19 | 28-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-18 | 16-15 | 7-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-20 | 22-10 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 19-12 | 3-7 | 5-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 75, the Russian reached the 4th round after beating Katie Volynets 6-3 3-6 6-2, Arantxa Rus 6-1 7-5 and Sloane Stephens 6-78 6-1 6-4.
In the 3rd round against Stephens, Kalinskaya recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-78 6-1 6-4). During the match Kalinskaya scored 121 points vs Stephens’s 107. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 53 winners.
About the serving games, Kalinskaya bagged 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Anna Kalinskaya lost the serve once and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Kalinskaya put 69% of her first serves in, winning 65% (53/81) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (22/37) on the 2nd serve. Anna broke Stephens 4 times after converting 29% of her break points (4/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Kalinskaya has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Kalinskaya has a composed 7-2 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 59 | 75 |
| Pts | 198-150 | 299-254 |
| Total Points | 348 | 553 |
| Winners | 95 | 132 |
| %Winners | 48% | 44% |
Both Paolini and Kalinskaya played 3 matches. At the moment, Anna Kalinskaya dropped 2 sets while Jasmine Paolini hasn’t lost a set so far. Paolini has played 2 set(s) less than Kalinskaya (6 vs 8). Therefore, Paolini played 16 games less than Kalinskaya. Paolini scored 95 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Kalinskaya bagged 132 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 136/174 | 197/272 |
| %1st in | 78% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 95/136 | 132/197 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 17/38 | 43/75 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 57% |
Paolini made 5 aces (1.7 per match). Kalinskaya fired 10 aces (3.3 per match). Paolini won 70% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Kalinskaya won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 13 |
| Converted | 12/17 | 13/44 |
| % Converted | 71% | 30% |
| Conceded | 12 | 26 |
| Saved | 6 | 22 |
| % Saved | 50% | 85% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 4 |
The Italian broke her opponents 12 times with a 71% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Kalinskaya broke her opponents 13 times with a 30% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 85% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | |||||
| R1 Shnaider |
R2 Maria |
R3 Blinkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-3 | 7-61 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | 23 | 59 | |
| pts | 58-47 | 69-49 | 71-54 | 198-150 | |
| Total points | 105 | 118 | 125 | 348 | |
| Winners | 26 | 35 | 34 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 51% | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 38/55 | 48/58 | 50/61 | 136/174 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 83% | 82% | 78% | |
| 1st pts | 26/38 | 35/48 | 34/50 | 95/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 73% | 68% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/17 | 4/10 | 5/11 | 17/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 40% | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/7 | 4/5 | 12/17 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 57% | 80% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 4/5 | 2/5 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 80% | 40% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Kalinskaya | |||||
| R1 Volynets |
R2 Rus |
R3 Stephens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-2 | 6-1 7-5 | 6-78 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 19 | 30 | 75 | |
| pts | 108-95 | 70-52 | 121-107 | 299-254 | |
| Total points | 203 | 122 | 228 | 553 | |
| Winners | 50 | 29 | 53 | 132 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 41% | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 71/99 | 45/55 | 81/118 | 197/272 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 82% | 69% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 50/71 | 29/45 | 53/81 | 132/197 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 64% | 65% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/28 | 6/10 | 22/37 | 43/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 60% | 59% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/16 | 6/14 | 4/14 | 13/44 | |
| Converted % | 19% | 43% | 29% | 30% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 13 | 26 | |
| Saved | 7/8 | 3/5 | 12/13 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 88% | 60% | 92% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WW
L Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Emma NavarroNavarro (6-2 2-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Yafan WangWang (6-4 2-6 7-68) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (7-61 6-4) – See score progression
- Oceane DodinDodin – Clara BurelBurel (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Sloane StephensStephens (6-78 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Viktorija GolubicGolubic (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Storm HunterHunter (4-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Alycia ParksParks (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Maria TimofeevaTimofeeva – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (7-67 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Elina AvanesyanAvanesyan (2-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Diane ParryParry (1-6 6-1 7-65) – See score progression
- Magdalena FrechFrech – Anastasia ZakharovaZakharova (4-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Oceane DodinDodin (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Magdalena FrechFrech – Cori GauffGauff (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (4-1) – H2H and prediction
