Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina will play each other in the final of the Adelaide International for the 8th time in their career. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.64
Daria Kasatkina -> 2.26
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Daria Kasatkina
This will be the 8th time that Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina play each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), but Kasatkina has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Ostapenko won 6-4 4-6 6-0 in the 4th round in Rome back in 2023.
Highlights Jelena Ostapenko vs Daria Kasatkina – Rome 15-May-2023
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 3-2 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, the Latvian reached the final after beating Sorana Cirstea 2-6 6-2 6-4, Caroline Garcia 6-4 5-7 6-4, Marta Kostyuk 7-5 6-3 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2 7-63.
In the semifinal, The Latvian had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-2 7-63). During the match, Ostapenko scored 83 points vs Alexandrova’s 64. Jelena was extremely aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ostapenko blasted 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 55% of her first serves in, winning 67% (28/42) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (18/34) on the 2nd serve. Ostapenko broke Alexandrova 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ostapenko has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 53% of the points she played.
Ostapenko has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 60% of her matches (288-191). 6-1 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Ostapenko has an overall 125-99 record in the last years on hard.
Ostapenko’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide.
Jelena has an aggregate 6-1 win-loss record in 2024, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-19 | 17-13 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Kasatkina reached the final after beating Claire Liu 6-4 6-3, Anna Kalinskaya 5-7 6-4 7-5, Laura Siegemund w/o and Jessica Pegula w/o.
In the semifinal, The Russian defeated Pegula (w/o). During the match Kasatkina and Pegula scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 12 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Darya was not very aggressive do strike just winners.
About the serving games, Kasatkina was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Daria Kasatkina conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Kasatkina has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide.
The Russian has an aggregate 4-1 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 100 | 53 |
| Pts | 356-315 | 194-180 |
| Total Points | 671 | 374 |
| Winners | 149 | 75 |
| %Winners | 42% | 39% |
Ostapenko played 4 matches while Kasatkina competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko conceded 2 sets, while Daria Kasatkina dropped 1 set. Ostapenko has played 5 sets more than Kasatkina (10 vs 5). Therefore, Ostapenko played 47 games more than Kasatkina. Jelena scored 149 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian fired 75 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 1 |
| 1st in | 212/357 | 122/177 |
| %1st in | 59% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 149/212 | 75/122 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 68/145 | 19/55 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 35% |
Ostapenko scored 14 aces (3.5 per match). Kasatkina made 2 aces (1 per match). Ostapenko won 70% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Kasatkina won 61% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 35% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 18 | 14 |
| Converted | 18/40 | 14/31 |
| % Converted | 45% | 45% |
| Conceded | 38 | 28 |
| Saved | 26 | 18 |
| % Saved | 68% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 12 | 10 |
The Latvian broke her opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. Jelena lost her serve 12 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded. Darya broke her opponents 14 times with a 45% conversion rate. Kasatkina conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.
| Ostapenko | ||||||
| R1 Cirstea |
R2 Garcia |
1/4 Kostyuk |
1/2 Alexandrova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 5-7 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 32 | 21 | 21 | 100 | |
| pts | 90-84 | 112-111 | 71-56 | 83-64 | 356-315 | |
| Total points | 174 | 223 | 127 | 147 | 671 | |
| Winners | 35 | 50 | 36 | 28 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 45% | 51% | 34% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 53/91 | 66/117 | 51/73 | 42/76 | 212/357 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 56% | 70% | 55% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 35/53 | 50/66 | 36/51 | 28/42 | 149/212 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 76% | 71% | 67% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 21/51 | 11/22 | 18/34 | 68/145 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 41% | 50% | 53% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/14 | 4/6 | 5/8 | 18/40 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 29% | 67% | 63% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 15 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 38 | |
| Saved | 11/15 | 7/10 | 3/5 | 5/8 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 73% | 70% | 60% | 63% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | |
| Kasatkina | ||||||
| R1 Liu |
R2 Kalinskaya |
1/4 Siegemund |
1/2 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 5-7 6-4 7-5 | w/o | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | – | – | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 34 | – | – | 53 | |
| pts | 77-65 | 117-115 | – | – | 194-180 | |
| Total points | 142 | 232 | – | – | 374 | |
| Winners | 28 | 47 | – | – | 75 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 40% | – | – | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | – | – | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 7 | – | – | 12 | |
| 1st in | 41/64 | 81/113 | – | – | 122/177 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 72% | – | – | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 28/41 | 47/81 | – | – | 75/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 58% | – | – | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/23 | 10/32 | – | – | 19/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 31% | – | – | 35% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 9 | – | – | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 9/19 | – | – | 14/31 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 47% | – | – | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 20 | – | – | 28 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 12/20 | – | – | 18 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 60% | – | – | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 8 | – | – | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLLWWW
LWWWLWLWLL Tennis Scores in Adelaide
- Beatriz Haddad Maia/Taylor TownsendHaddad Maia/Taylor Townsend – Caroline Garcia/Kristina MladenovicGarcia/Kristina Mladenovic (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Corentin MoutetMoutet (7-65 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (5-2) – H2H and prediction
