Jelena Ostapenko and Marta Kostyuk will square off in the quarter of the Adelaide International for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 11:30 am on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.44
Marta Kostyuk -> 2.8

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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Marta Kostyuk

This will be the 2nd time that Jelena Ostapenko and Marta Kostyuk play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Ostapenko won 6-2 6-3 in the 2nd round in Guadalajara back in 2023.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
23
High
5
LLLLWLLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 18-20 8-14 9-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2024 31-19 14-10 8-6 4-0 5-3 0-0
2023 37-22 21-15 7-4 1-1 8-2 0-0
2022 33-19 19-10 3-3 3-3 8-3 0-0
2021 32-19 12-9 5-4 7-4 8-2 0-0

Ranked no. 12, Ostapenko got to the quarter after beating Sorana Cirstea 2-6 6-2 6-4 and Caroline Garcia 6-4 5-7 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Ostapenko defeated Garcia (6-4 5-7 6-4). During the match, Ostapenko scored 112 points vs Garcia’s 111. Ostapenko was extremely aggressive to blast 50 winners.

Talking about the service games, Ostapenko bagged 3 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 56% of her first serves in, winning 76% (50/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (21/51) on the 2nd serve. The Latvian broke Garcia 4 times after converting 29% of her break points (4/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Latvian has lost 2 set in this competition to win 51% of the points she played.

Ostapenko has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of her matches (286-191). 4-1 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Ostapenko has an overall 123-99 record in the last years on hard.

Ostapenko has an overall 4-1 win-loss record in 2024, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Adelaide
Ostapenko's Record

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
26
High
16
LLWWWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 28-20 19-13 7-4 2-0 0-3 0-0
2024 34-22 24-14 8-5 0-0 2-3 0-0
2023 26-22 22-16 2-4 0-0 2-2 0-0
2022 28-20 18-11 3-4 4-3 3-2 0-0
2021 25-17 8-9 10-4 3-1 4-3 0-0

Ranked no. 41, Marta got to the quarter after defeating Anhelina Kalinina 7-63 6-1 and Taylor Townsend 6-3 2-6 6-4.

In the 2nd round, The Ukrainian defeated Townsend (6-3 2-6 6-4). During the match Kostyuk scored 96 points vs Townsend’s 90. Marta was very aggressive to blast 43 winners.

About the serving games, Kostyuk scored 3 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve 6 times and she saved 14 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 61% of her first serves in, winning 61% (43/71) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (20/45) on the 2nd serve. Kostyuk broke Townsend 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Ukrainian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Marta has a compiled 3-1 win-loss record in 2024, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Adelaide

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022. See her history.

Adelaide
Kostyuk's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Ostapenko
M.Kostyuk
4h:39
4h:39
Time on court​
3h:40
3h:40
!
2h:41
2h:41
Last match​
!
2h:14
2h:14
2
2
Match played
2
2
58
58
Games Played​
47
47
6
6
Set played​​
5
5
202
202
Total points​
170
170
101
101
Avg point​
85
85
85
85
Winners
74
74
42.5
42.5
Avg Winners​
37
37
42%
42%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
9
9
Aces
13
13
4.5
4.5
Avg Aces
6.5
6.5
13
13
Double Faults
15
15
!
6.5
6.5
Avg Double Faults
!
7.5
7.5
85/119
85/119
1st won total​
74/114
74/114
!
71%
71%
1st won %
65%
65%
39/89
39/89
2nd won total​
28/65
28/65
44%
44%
2nd won %
43%
43%
-- Break Points --
9/26
9/26
BP won
12/15
12/15
4.5/13
4.5/13
Avg BP won
6/7.5
6/7.5
35%
35%
Won
!
80%
80%
25
25
Conceded
28
28
12.5
12.5
Avg Conceded
14
14
7
7
Broken
9
9
3.5
3.5
Avg Broken
!
4.5
4.5
18
18
Saved
19
19

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Ostapenko Kostyuk
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 6 5
Tot Games 58 47
Pts 202-195 170-137
Total Points 397 307
Winners 85 74
%Winners 42% 44%

Both Ostapenko and Kostyuk played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko lost 2 sets, while Marta Kostyuk lost 1 set. Ostapenko has played 1 set more than Kostyuk (6 vs 5). Therefore, Ostapenko played 11 games more than Kostyuk. Jelena scored 85 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Kostyuk recorded 74 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Ostapenko Kostyuk
Aces 9 13
Avg per match 4.5 6.5
1st in 119/208 114/179
%1st in 57% 64%
1st pts 85/119 74/114
%1st pts 71% 65%
2nd pts 39/89 28/65
%2nd pts 44% 43%

Ostapenko blasted 9 aces (4.5 per match). Kostyuk managed to score 13 aces (6.5 per match). Ostapenko won 71% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 65% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Ostapenko Kostyuk
Won 9 12
Converted 9/26 12/15
% Converted 35% 80%
Conceded 25 28
Saved 18 19
% Saved 72% 68%
Times Broken 7 9

Ostapenko broke her opponents 9 times with a 35% conversion rate. Jelena surrendered her serve 7 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Marta broke her opponents 12 times with a 80% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.

Ostapenko
R1
Cirstea
R2
Garcia
Total
Score 2-6 6-2 6-4 6-4 5-7 6-4
Tot Set 3 3 6
Tot Games 26 32 58
pts 90-84 112-111 202-195
Total points 174 223 397
Winners 35 50 85
%Winners 39% 45% 42%
SERVE
Aces 6 3 9
Double Faults 3 10 13
1st in 53/91 66/117 119/208
% 1st in 58% 56% 57%
1st pts 35/53 50/66 85/119
% 1st pts 66% 76% 71%
2nd pts 18/38 21/51 39/89
% 2nd pts 47% 41% 44%
Breaks
Won 5 4 9
Converted 5/12 4/14 9/26
Converted % 42% 29% 35%
Conceded 15 10 25
Saved 11/15 7/10 18
Saved % 73% 70% 72%
Times Broken 4 3 7
Kostyuk
R1
Kalinina
R2
Townsend
Total
Score 7-63 6-1 6-3 2-6 6-4
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 20 27 47
pts 74-47 96-90 170-137
Total points 121 186 307
Winners 31 43 74
%Winners 42% 45% 44%
SERVE
Aces 10 3 13
Double Faults 7 8 15
1st in 43/63 71/116 114/179
% 1st in 68% 61% 64%
1st pts 31/43 43/71 74/114
% 1st pts 72% 61% 65%
2nd pts 8/20 20/45 28/65
% 2nd pts 40% 44% 43%
Breaks
Won 6 6 12
Converted 6/8 6/7 12/15
Converted % 75% 86% 80%
Conceded 8 20 28
Saved 5/8 14/20 19
Saved % 63% 70% 67%
Times Broken 3 6 9

Tennis Scores in Adelaide

Upcoming matches in the draw