Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik will face off in the quarter of the Adelaide International for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:30 pm on SHOW COURT 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexander Bublik who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alexander Bublik is the pick to win this match.
Alexander Bublik -> 1.83
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.98
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alexander Bublik
This will be the 2nd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Bublik (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Bublik won 6-3 0-0 ret. in the 1st round in London back in 2022.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 30-15 | 6-4 | 20-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, Lorenzo got to the quarter after beating Jordan Thompson 6-4 6-1.
In the 2nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Thompson (6-4 6-1). During the match, Musetti scored 64 points vs Thompson’s 35. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Musetti scored 3 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Lorenzo Musetti was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 96% (23/24) of his 1st serve and 100% (9/9) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Lorenzo broke Thompson 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Musetti has a winning record in the last 7 years having won 57% of his matches (176-132). 2-1 on hard in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Musetti has a compiled39-35 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
The Italian has an aggregate 2-1 win-loss record in 2024, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Adelaide
Alexander Bublik
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-17 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 8-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, the Kazakhstani reached the quarter after beating James McCabe 6-2 6-3 and Daniel Evans 4-6 6-2 6-1.
In the 2nd round against Evans, Alexander recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-2 6-1). During the match Bublik scored 86 points vs Evans’s 67. Bublik was pretty aggressive to blast 40 winners.
About the serving games, Bublik buried his opponent with 21 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 13 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 58% of his first serves in, winning 82% (40/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (14/36) on the 2nd serve. Alexander broke Evans 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Bublik has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
Alexander has an aggregate 2-0 win-loss record in 2024, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 42 |
| Pts | 64-35 | 147-110 |
| Total Points | 99 | 257 |
| Winners | 23 | 65 |
| %Winners | 36% | 44% |
Musetti played 1 match while Bublik competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Alexander Bublik lost 1 set while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Musetti has played 3 set(s) less than Bublik (2 vs 5). Therefore, Musetti played 25 games less than Bublik. Lorenzo scored 23 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Alexander scored 65 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 11.5 |
| 1st in | 24/33 | 78/133 |
| %1st in | 73% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 23/24 | 65/78 |
| %1st pts | 96% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 9/9 | 22/55 |
| %2nd pts | 100% | 40% |
Musetti recorded 3 aces . Bublik made 23 aces (11.5 per match). Musetti won 96% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 100% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 40% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 10 |
| Converted | 4/7 | 10/13 |
| % Converted | 57% | 77% |
| Conceded | 0 | 13 |
| Saved | 0 | 10 |
| % Saved | 0% | 77% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
The Italian broke his opponent 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. The Italian pretty effective on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. Alexander broke his opponents 10 times with a 77% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | |||
| R2 Thompson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 64-35 | 64-35 | |
| Total points | 99 | 99 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 24/33 | 24/33 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 23/24 | 23/24 | |
| % 1st pts | 96% | 96% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/9 | 9/9 | |
| % 2nd pts | 100% | 100% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/7 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Bublik | ||||
| R1 McCabe |
R2 Evans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 4-6 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 25 | 42 | |
| pts | 61-43 | 86-67 | 147-110 | |
| Total points | 104 | 153 | 257 | |
| Winners | 25 | 40 | 65 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 47% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 21 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 13 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 29/48 | 49/85 | 78/133 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 58% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 40/49 | 65/78 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 82% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/19 | 14/36 | 22/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 39% | 40% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 5/7 | 10/13 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 71% | 77% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 10 | 13 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 8/10 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 80% | 147% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWWLLWLW
LWLLLLWLLL 
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