Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the final of the Brisbane International for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on Pat Rafter Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.533
Elena Rybakina -> 2.5

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 8^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina play each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 6-2 3-6 6-3 in the R in Cancun back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Cancun 03-November-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka reached the final after beating Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-0, Lin Zhu 6-1 6-0, Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 and Victoria Azarenka 6-2 6-4.

In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Azarenka (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Azarenka’s 52. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka made 10 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 67% of her first serves in, winning 78% (31/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (10/20) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Azarenka 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (322-154). 4-0 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an overall193-85 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Aryna’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Brisbane.

Aryna has an aggregate 4-0 win-loss record in 2024, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Brisbane

The Belarussian has never competed in this tournament before.

Elena Rybakina

Ranked no. 4, Elena reached the final after beating Olivia Gadecki 6-4 6-1, Elise Mertens 6-1 6-0, Anastasia Potapova 6-1 ret. and Linda Noskova 6-3 6-2.

In the semifinal, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Noskova (6-3 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 61 points vs Noskova’s 43. Rybakina was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 8 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elena Rybakina was exceptionally effective on serve to win 80% (32/40) of her 1st serve and 54% (7/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Elena broke Noskova 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points she played.

Elena’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Brisbane.

Elena has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2024, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Rybakina
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	8
Tot Games	63	54
Pts	245-160	206-132
Total Points	405	338
Winners	105	100
%Winners	43%	49%

Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 4 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Sabalenka played 9 games more than Rybakina. Aryna scored 105 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani made 100 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Rybakina
Aces	31	18
Avg per match	7.8	4.5
1st in	134/219	126/173
%1st in	61%	73%
1st pts	105/134	100/126
%1st pts	78%	79%
2nd pts	44/85	25/47
%2nd pts	52%	53%

Sabalenka managed to score 31 aces (7.8 per match). Rybakina blasted 18 aces (4.5 per match). Sabalenka won 78% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 79% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Rybakina
Won	17	13
Converted	17/35	13/28
% Converted	49%	46%
Conceded	13	11
Saved	11	11
% Saved	85%	100%
Times Broken	2	0

Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve twice and she saved 85% of the break points that she conceded. Rybakina broke her opponents 13 times with a 46% conversion rate. Elena was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 11 break points.

Sabalenka
	R2 Bronzetti	R3 Zhu	1/4 Kasatkina	1/2 Azarenka	Total
Score	6-3 6-0	6-1 6-0	6-1 6-4	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	15	13	17	18	63
pts	50-26	61-31	70-51	64-52	245-160
Total points	76	92	121	116	405
Winners	20	24	30	31	105
%Winners	40%	39%	43%	48%	43%
SERVE
Aces	8	9	4	10	31
Double Faults	1	2	2	3	8
1st in	25/44	31/54	38/61	40/60	134/219
% 1st in	57%	57%	62%	67%	61%
1st pts	20/25	24/31	30/38	31/40	105/134
% 1st pts	80%	77%	79%	78%	78%
2nd pts	13/19	11/23	10/23	10/20	44/85
% 2nd pts	68%	48%	43%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	6	4	3	17
Converted	4/5	6/11	4/11	3/8	17/35
Converted %	80%	55%	36%	38%	49%
Conceded	1	5	4	3	13
Saved	1/1	4/5	3/4	3/3	11
Saved %	100%	80%	75%	100%	89%
Times Broken	0	1	1	0	2

Rybakina
	R2 Gadecki	R3 Mertens	1/4 Potapova	1/2 Noskova	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-1 6-0	6-1 ret.	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	1	2	7
Tot Games	17	13	7	17	54
pts	62-45	56-28	27-16	61-43	206-132
Total points	107	84	43	104	338
Winners	28	27	13	32	100
%Winners	45%	48%	48%	52%	49%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	2	8	18
Double Faults	1	0	0	1	2
1st in	35/53	34/42	17/25	40/53	126/173
% 1st in	66%	81%	68%	75%	73%
1st pts	28/35	27/34	13/17	32/40	100/126
% 1st pts	80%	79%	76%	80%	79%
2nd pts	10/18	4/8	4/8	7/13	25/47
% 2nd pts	56%	50%	50%	54%	53%
Breaks
Won	3	5	2	3	13
Converted	3/5	5/15	2/3	3/5	13/28
Converted %	60%	33%	67%	60%	46%
Conceded	3	1	3	4	11
Saved	3/3	1/1	3/3	4/4	11
Saved %	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0	0

Tennis Scores in Brisbane

• Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Jozef KovalikKovalik (6-2 3-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (5-2) – H2H and prediction