Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the final of the Brisbane International for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on Pat Rafter Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.533
Elena Rybakina -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina play each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 6-2 3-6 6-3 in the R in Cancun back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Cancun 03-November-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-8 | 14-4 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka reached the final after beating Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-0, Lin Zhu 6-1 6-0, Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 and Victoria Azarenka 6-2 6-4.
In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Azarenka (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Azarenka’s 52. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka made 10 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 67% of her first serves in, winning 78% (31/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (10/20) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Azarenka 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to win 60% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (322-154). 4-0 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an overall193-85 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
Aryna’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Brisbane.
Aryna has an aggregate 4-0 win-loss record in 2024, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Brisbane
The Belarussian has never competed in this tournament before.
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 34-6 | 22-4 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Elena reached the final after beating Olivia Gadecki 6-4 6-1, Elise Mertens 6-1 6-0, Anastasia Potapova 6-1 ret. and Linda Noskova 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Noskova (6-3 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 61 points vs Noskova’s 43. Rybakina was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 8 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elena Rybakina was exceptionally effective on serve to win 80% (32/40) of her 1st serve and 54% (7/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Elena broke Noskova 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points she played.
Elena’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Brisbane.
Elena has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2024, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 63 | 54 |
| Pts | 245-160 | 206-132 |
| Total Points | 405 | 338 |
| Winners | 105 | 100 |
| %Winners | 43% | 49% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 4 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Sabalenka played 9 games more than Rybakina. Aryna scored 105 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani made 100 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 31 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 7.8 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 134/219 | 126/173 |
| %1st in | 61% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 105/134 | 100/126 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 44/85 | 25/47 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 53% |
Sabalenka managed to score 31 aces (7.8 per match). Rybakina blasted 18 aces (4.5 per match). Sabalenka won 78% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 79% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 13 |
| Converted | 17/35 | 13/28 |
| % Converted | 49% | 46% |
| Conceded | 13 | 11 |
| Saved | 11 | 11 |
| % Saved | 85% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve twice and she saved 85% of the break points that she conceded. Rybakina broke her opponents 13 times with a 46% conversion rate. Elena was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 11 break points.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Zhu |
1/4 Kasatkina |
1/2 Azarenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-1 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 63 | |
| pts | 50-26 | 61-31 | 70-51 | 64-52 | 245-160 | |
| Total points | 76 | 92 | 121 | 116 | 405 | |
| Winners | 20 | 24 | 30 | 31 | 105 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 39% | 43% | 48% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 31/54 | 38/61 | 40/60 | 134/219 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | 62% | 67% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 20/25 | 24/31 | 30/38 | 31/40 | 105/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 77% | 79% | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/19 | 11/23 | 10/23 | 10/20 | 44/85 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 48% | 43% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 6/11 | 4/11 | 3/8 | 17/35 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 55% | 36% | 38% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 80% | 75% | 100% | 89% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||
| R2 Gadecki |
R3 Mertens |
1/4 Potapova |
1/2 Noskova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-1 ret. | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 54 | |
| pts | 62-45 | 56-28 | 27-16 | 61-43 | 206-132 | |
| Total points | 107 | 84 | 43 | 104 | 338 | |
| Winners | 28 | 27 | 13 | 32 | 100 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 48% | 48% | 52% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 35/53 | 34/42 | 17/25 | 40/53 | 126/173 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 81% | 68% | 75% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 28/35 | 27/34 | 13/17 | 32/40 | 100/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 79% | 76% | 80% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 7/13 | 25/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 50% | 54% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 5/15 | 2/3 | 3/5 | 13/28 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 33% | 67% | 60% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 4/4 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Brisbane
- Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Jozef KovalikKovalik (6-2 3-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (5-2) – H2H and prediction
