Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner will clash against each other in the final of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 7:00 pm on Centre Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.54
Jannik Sinner -> 2.48
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 5th time that Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Djokovic (see full H2H stats), but Sinner leads 1-0 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sinner won 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2) in the R in Nitto atp finals back in November 2023.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic – Nitto atp finals 14-November-2023
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18-6 | 8-3 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-5 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Novak got to the final after defeating Holger Rune 7-64 6-71 6-3, Hubert Hurkacz 7-61 4-6 6-1 and Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Novak had a good straight sets win against Alcaraz (6-3 6-2). During the match, Djokovic scored 64 points vs Alcaraz’s 47. The Serbian was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Djokovic managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Novak Djokovic was extremely effective on serve to win 81% (30/37) of his 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Serbian broke Alcaraz 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Djokovic has conceded 2 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Djokovic has a good match record in the last 10 years having won 87% of his matches (542-80). 9-1 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Djokovic has an overall 89-15 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where he overcame Sebastian Korda in the final 6-7(8) 7-6(3) 6-4 and at the Australian Open where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(5) and at the French Open where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(1) 6-3 7-5 and in Cincinnati where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4) and at the U.S. Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 7-6(5) 6-3 and in Paris where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-4 6-3.
The Serbian has a compiled 54-6 win-loss record in 2023, 9-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38-3 | 17-1 | 11-2 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), Sinner reached the final after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4, Novak Djokovic 7-5 6-75 7-62, Holger Rune 6-2 5-7 6-4 and Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-74 6-1.
In the semifinal, The Italian defeated Medvedev (6-3 6-74 6-1). During the match Sinner scored 103 points vs Medvedev’s 89. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 50 winners.
About the serving games, Sinner scored 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jannik Sinner conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 58% of his first serves in, winning 83% (50/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (21/44) on the 2nd serve. Sinner broke Medvedev 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Montpellier where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1 and in Beijing where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(2) 7-6(2) and in Vienna where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3.
The Italian has an aggregate 61-14 win-loss record in 2023, 17-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Previously, his best result was reaching the Round Robin in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Djokovic | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 82 | 117 |
| Pts | 268-230 | 379-336 |
| Total Points | 498 | 715 |
| Winners | 123 | 179 |
| %Winners | 46% | 47% |
Djokovic played 3 matches while Sinner competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Novak Djokovic conceded 2 sets, while Jannik Sinner surrendered 3 sets. Djokovic has played 3 set(s) less than Sinner (8 vs 11). Therefore, Djokovic played 35 games less than Sinner. Djokovic scored 123 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Sinner made 179 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Djokovic | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 18 | 45 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 11.3 |
| 1st in | 162/244 | 216/357 |
| %1st in | 66% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 123/162 | 179/216 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 46/82 | 77/141 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 55% |
Djokovic bagged 18 aces (6 per match). Sinner struck 45 aces (11.3 per match). Djokovic won 76% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Djokovic | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 10 |
| Converted | 9/23 | 10/25 |
| % Converted | 39% | 40% |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 |
| Saved | 7 | 8 |
| % Saved | 64% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
Djokovic broke his opponents 9 times with a 39% conversion rate. Djokovic dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 10 times with a 40% conversion rate. Sinner conceded his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Djokovic | ||||||
| Round Robin Hurkacz |
Round Robin Sinner |
Round Robin Rune |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-61 4-6 6-1 | 7-5 6-75 7-62 | 7-64 6-71 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 38 | 35 | 17 | 120 | |
| pts | 93-77 | – | 111-106 | 64-47 | 268-230 | |
| Total points | 170 | 0 | 217 | 111 | 498 | |
| Winners | 38 | 55 | 30 | 123 | ||
| %Winners | 41% | 0% | 50% | 47% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 1st in | 51/81 | / | 74/108 | 37/55 | 162/244 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 0% | 69% | 67% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 38/51 | / | 55/74 | 30/37 | 123/162 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 0% | 74% | 81% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/30 | / | 14/34 | 10/18 | 46/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 0% | 41% | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | ||
| Converted | 2/7 | / | 4/8 | 3/8 | 9/23 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 0% | 50% | 38% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | ||
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/ | 3/6 | 4/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 50% | 100% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | ||
| Sinner | ||||||
| Round Robin Rune |
Round Robin Djokovic |
Round Robin Tsitsipas |
1/2 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 5-7 6-4 | 7-5 6-75 7-62 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 6-74 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 38 | 20 | 29 | 117 | |
| pts | 105-88 | 109-109 | 62-50 | 103-89 | 379-336 | |
| Total points | 193 | 218 | 112 | 192 | 715 | |
| Winners | 41 | 56 | 32 | 50 | 179 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 51% | 52% | 49% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 11 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 45 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 49/84 | 71/118 | 36/51 | 60/104 | 216/357 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 60% | 71% | 58% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 41/49 | 56/71 | 32/36 | 50/60 | 179/216 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 79% | 89% | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/35 | 26/47 | 9/15 | 21/44 | 77/141 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 55% | 60% | 48% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 2/3 | 2/5 | 3/7 | 10/25 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 67% | 40% | 43% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 67% | – | 100% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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