Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the semifinal of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 9:00 pm on Centre Court. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.666
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.21
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This will be the 5th time that Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz square off. The head to head is 2-2 for Djokovic and Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they fought against each other, Djokovic won 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4) in the final in Cincinnati back in August 2023.
Highlights Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz – Cincinnati 20-August-2023
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-5 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Serbian got to the semifinal after defeating Holger Rune 7-64 6-71 6-3 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-61 4-6 6-1.
In the previous match, Novak defeated Hurkacz (7-61 4-6 6-1). During the match, Djokovic scored 93 points vs Hurkacz’s 77. Novak was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about the service games, Djokovic fired 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Novak Djokovic was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 75% (38/51) of his 1st serve and 73% (22/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Serbian broke Hurkacz twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Djokovic has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Djokovic has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 87% of his matches (541-80). 8-1 on indoor hard courts in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Djokovic has a composed 88-15 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where he beat Sebastian Korda in the final 6-7(8) 7-6(3) 6-4 and at the Australian Open where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(5) and at the French Open where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(1) 6-3 7-5 and in Cincinnati where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4) and at the U.S. Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 7-6(5) 6-3 and in Paris where he overcame Grigor Dimitrov in the final 6-4 6-3.
Novak has an aggregate 53-6 win-loss record in 2023, 8-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52-11 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 5-1 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz got to the semifinal after defeating Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-2 and Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-4.
In the previous match, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (6-4 6-4). During the match Alcaraz scored 61 points vs Medvedev’s 51. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.
About the serving games, Alcaraz struck 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Carlos Alcaraz was very effective on serve to win 76% (31/41) of his 1st serve and 67% (10/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Medvedev twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he defeated Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.
Carlos has a composed 65-11 win-loss record in 2023, 2-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 65 | 40 |
| Pts | 204-183 | 126-94 |
| Total Points | 387 | 220 |
| Winners | 93 | 63 |
| %Winners | 46% | 50% |
Both Djokovic and Alcaraz played 2 matches. At the moment, Novak Djokovic lost 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set so far. Djokovic has played 2 sets more than Alcaraz (6 vs 4). Therefore, Djokovic played 25 games more than Alcaraz. Djokovic scored 93 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard managed to score 63 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 4 |
| 1st in | 125/189 | 75/103 |
| %1st in | 66% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 93/125 | 63/75 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 84% |
| 2nd pts | 36/64 | 18/28 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 64% |
Djokovic fired 16 aces (8 per match). Alcaraz recorded 8 aces (4 per match). Djokovic won 74% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 84% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 5 |
| Converted | 6/15 | 5/11 |
| % Converted | 40% | 45% |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 |
| Saved | 3 | 2 |
| % Saved | 43% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 |
Djokovic broke his opponents 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Serbian surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 43% of the break points that he conceded. Alcaraz broke his opponents 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Carlos was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.
| Djokovic | |||||
| Round Robin Hurkacz |
Round Robin Sinner |
Round Robin Rune |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-61 4-6 6-1 | 7-5 6-75 7-62 | 7-64 6-71 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 38 | 35 | 103 | |
| pts | 93-77 | – | 111-106 | 204-183 | |
| Total points | 170 | 0 | 217 | 387 | |
| Winners | 38 | 55 | 93 | ||
| %Winners | 41% | 0% | 50% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 0 | 10 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 1st in | 51/81 | / | 74/108 | 125/189 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 0% | 69% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 38/51 | / | 55/74 | 93/125 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 0% | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/30 | / | 14/34 | 36/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 0% | 41% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | ||
| Converted | 2/7 | / | 4/8 | 6/15 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 0% | 50% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 7 | ||
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/ | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 50% | 17% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Alcaraz | |||||
| Round Robin Medvedev |
Round Robin Rublev |
Round Robin Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-73 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 32 | 72 | |
| pts | 61-51 | 65-43 | – | 126-94 | |
| Total points | 112 | 108 | 0 | 220 | |
| Winners | 31 | 32 | 63 | ||
| %Winners | 51% | 49% | 0% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 1st in | 41/56 | 34/47 | / | 75/103 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 72% | 0% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 31/41 | 32/34 | / | 63/75 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 94% | 0% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/15 | 8/13 | / | 18/28 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 62% | 0% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/6 | / | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 50% | 0% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Saved | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/ | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | – | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Head 2 Head
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- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (2-2) – H2H and prediction
