Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will square off in the semifinal of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:30 pm on Centre Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.63
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.28
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 9th time that Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 6-2 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 5-1 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they played, Sinner won 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3 in the final in Vienna back in October 2023.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev – Vienna 29-October-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-19 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 0-3 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Daniil reached the semifinal after beating Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-2 and Alexander Zverev 7-67 6-4.
Medvedev has a marvellous record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (489-195). 11-3 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has a compiled 127-54 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he defeated Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he overcame Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
Medvedev has an overall 66-17 win-loss record in 2023, 11-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 65-6 | 40-3 | 11-2 | 5-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), Sinner got to the semifinal after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4, Novak Djokovic 7-5 6-75 7-62 and Holger Rune 6-2 5-7 6-4.
In the previous match, The Italian defeated Rune (6-2 5-7 6-4). During the match Sinner scored 105 points vs Rune’s 88. Sinner was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Sinner fired 11 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Jannik Sinner was exceptionally effective on serve to win 84% (41/49) of his 1st serve and 60% (21/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sinner broke Rune 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Montpellier where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1 and in Beijing where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(2) 7-6(2) and in Vienna where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3.
Jannik has a composed 60-14 win-loss record in 2023, 16-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Previously, his best result was reaching the Round Robin in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 88 |
| Pts | 148-121 | 276-247 |
| Total Points | 269 | 523 |
| Winners | 70 | 129 |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% |
Medvedev played 2 matches while Sinner competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner surrendered 2 sets while Daniil Medvedev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Medvedev has played 4 set(s) less than Sinner (4 vs 8). Therefore, Medvedev played 47 games less than Sinner. Daniil scored 70 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik scored 129 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 35 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 11.7 |
| 1st in | 87/134 | 156/253 |
| %1st in | 65% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 70/87 | 129/156 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 24/47 | 56/97 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 58% |
Medvedev bagged 14 aces (7 per match). Sinner made 35 aces (11.7 per match). Medvedev won 80% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 7 |
| Converted | 5/12 | 7/18 |
| % Converted | 42% | 39% |
| Conceded | 11 | 8 |
| Saved | 10 | 6 |
| % Saved | 91% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 |
Medvedev broke his opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. Medvedev conceded his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| Round Robin Alcaraz |
Round Robin Zverev |
Round Robin Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 7-67 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 23 | 18 | 61 | |
| pts | – | 73-64 | 75-57 | 148-121 | |
| Total points | 0 | 137 | 132 | 269 | |
| Winners | 40 | 30 | 70 | ||
| %Winners | 0% | 55% | 40% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 1st in | / | 51/70 | 36/64 | 87/134 | |
| % 1st in | 0% | 73% | 56% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | / | 40/51 | 30/36 | 70/87 | |
| % 1st pts | 0% | 78% | 83% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | / | 10/19 | 14/28 | 24/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 0% | 53% | 50% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Converted | / | 2/2 | 3/10 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 0% | 100% | 30% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 11 | ||
| Saved | 0/ | 3/4 | 7/7 | 10 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 100% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Sinner | |||||
| Round Robin Rune |
Round Robin Djokovic |
Round Robin Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 5-7 6-4 | 7-5 6-75 7-62 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 38 | 20 | 88 | |
| pts | 105-88 | 109-109 | 62-50 | 276-247 | |
| Total points | 193 | 218 | 112 | 523 | |
| Winners | 41 | 56 | 32 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 51% | 52% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 11 | 15 | 9 | 35 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 49/84 | 71/118 | 36/51 | 156/253 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 60% | 71% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 41/49 | 56/71 | 32/36 | 129/156 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 79% | 89% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/35 | 26/47 | 9/15 | 56/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 55% | 60% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 2/3 | 2/5 | 7/18 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 67% | 40% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 67% | – | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (2-2) – H2H and prediction
